Futurist: After 5-15 years, the semi-man horse army appeared, China became the world AI training center


Editor’s Note: This article comes from WeChat public account “New Intelligence” (ID: AI_era), edited by Zhang Jia, Daming, Xiaoqin, 36氪 authorized release.Artificial intelligence has fundamentally changed the world.It is not coming, but it is here.Hate it or love it, AI is everywhere.It is like a newly sprouted seed, but a forest grows from this seed.In the short term, AI will bring us the brightest fantasy and the darkest nightmare.why?Because AI is a general technology.It is flexible enough to do whatever we want.This means that AI will reflect its creators – our good and evil.Despite concerns that the Terminator and the machine will take over, artificial intelligence is not even close to perception.It does not have its own desires.It will not take over the world soon, although we will explore this possibility as we look ahead to the next 500 years.We now have a narrow artificial intelligence.It is limited to a single task and it will definitely do what we want.It is under the control of humans.If it does something bad, we can only blame ourselves.In the next five to fifteen years, we will face a future dominated by narrow artificial intelligence.Artificial intelligence and how it is used will reflect and amplify our essence a thousand times, both on the bright side and on the dark side.It will “live” in your camera, on your phone, in your computer, in your glasses, and in public and private places.It will be our friends, colleagues and enemies.As Francois Chollet said: “Artificial intelligence will be our interface with the world.” In short, nothing is beyond the reach of artificial intelligence.Welcome to the dawn of the wisdom age.Please come with me now, I will show you how this all started, and how it leads us into an era of intelligent explosion, which will make a huge transformation in the past, compared to the previous agriculture to industry.The revolution, the industrial revolution, and the information age are insignificant.The world after 5-15 years: The semi-human horse army appeared. China became the world’s artificial intelligence training center. The half-human horse army appeared and worked with humans. In the next few years, artificial intelligence will become our colleague instead of us.At that time, AI will work side by side with humans to make us better, smarter, and faster.These AIs have a nickname: Centaurs.Their name comes from Gary Kasparov’s early chess game experiment, in which a combination of artificial intelligence and human teams defeated purely artificial intelligence and a human team without AI assistance.The name of the game comes from the fabulous beast of the Greek legend, half a horse and half, symbolizing how people and machines work together.We tend to think of AI as C3P0, which is an imitation of human intelligence.In other words, it can’t do all the work for us.In the factory, we will see more and more AIs responsible for safety, monitoring equipment and predicting failures, and engineers are ready to end the wrong debate.This means fewer accidents and higher productivity.We will also see the Centaur system helping us build urban infrastructure.Drones and satellites will monitor the spread of disease in crops and soar over urban streets to find potholes and fill them up.This knowledge will better inform public policy.With knowledge, the public can ask for better roads and bridges because they actually know which ones are bad, and engineers will know which roads to lay down next.Centaur will be ubiquitous in the next five to fifteen years, spread slowly, and then spread quickly.AI powers health care, and over-regulated medical systems are gradually opening up. The most promising area of ​​artificial intelligence is the healthcare sector.Detecting skin cancer through visual pattern recognition In healthcare, the biggest obstacle to artificial intelligence is that almost every medical system in the world is too conservative and over-regulated.New equipment is difficult to get approved, and the barriers to entry are huge.When artificial intelligence shows growing hope, we expect these walls to begin to collapse.The law will change, making it easier for AI-based medical devices to enter hospitals, access our phones and augmented reality glasses.In this way, your watch and glasses will know that you often fight during the day, not just overwork, but sleep apnea.From the sphygmomanometer to the camera, the equipment around the hospital will become smarter.The camera will detect if the elderly are stopping breathing or having a heart attack.All of our equipment will begin to be a preventive care device.Your watch will increasingly become your heart and health monitor.In ten to fifteen years, it can even predict a heart attack before you eat eggs and bacon.“Reminder: If you have a heart attack, please go to the emergency room immediately.” That means you can get to the hospital in time and live longer.The new digital Darwinism begins, privacy and public interest need to be weighed. Of course, every light has a shadow.Nothing can show this shadow more clearly than the artificial intelligence arms race.The next five to fifteen years will mark the beginning of a new digital Darwinism.At the military and economic levels, at the national level and at the enterprise level, the survival of the fittest is achieved.Today’s narrow artificial intelligence relies on big data.The more data you can collect, the smarter your artificial intelligence is, and at least after a few petabytes of images, text, and video, it will reach the point of diminishing returns.If your citizen does not have any privacy rights, the government can do whatever it wants, which makes it very easy to build large data sets to train artificial intelligence.The morality of the city’s brain dashboard is even more serious for the government.Every country wants to deploy artificial intelligence in the city’s brain, but they need to draw a line between privacy and public interest.That line is ambiguous.The motto to the road to hell is “for greater benefit.”Smart cities have many benefits, such as finding fires faster than anyone, which means that fire trucks get there faster.Finding violence and arresting violent criminals means that fewer people die from terrible gunshot wounds or knife wounds behind them.Retrieving stolen cars and wallets means cheaper insurance.Commanding traffic means reducing commuting time.If the AI ​​can save us from the morning rush, it might be worth using the monitoring machine, because nothing is a waste of life than going to the office for two hours a day.However, a system that discovers criminals and “bad guys” can easily identify anyone who has a different perspective and opposes the system.The only real question is who will define the bad guys?Today’s AI is faithfully serving its owner.Unlike soldiers, it does not question the orders of its commanders.Whether it is right or wrong, it will do what is required to do it in a ruthless and efficient way.We are afraid of conscious artificial intelligence.Maybe we should be afraid of the opposite – artificial intelligence without consciousness?China has become the world’s artificial intelligence training center. In the next five to fifteen years, there are some less obvious things to pay attention to.In order to compete early in the data-starved AI, many countries will need to bypass the rules.Companies and countries will train their systems in less open regions of the world and bring these trained systems back to the US and Europe.They will abide by the law, but they violate the spirit.This will make China the world’s artificial intelligence training center.China will leap from a cheap manufacturing center on the planet to a next-generation smart economy.Smart Weapons: The darkest shadow of AI But before we enter 50 years and 500 years ago, we need to talk about the darkest shadow of artificial intelligence – smart weapons.The AI ​​will mark the beginning of a truly smart weapon.Paired facial recognition technology will be used in miniature missiles or mini drones, and weapons can only kill the people we want to target.Some believe that in many ways, deadly artificial intelligence can kill a small number of innocent people.I know that this is a glimmer of hope in the dark clouds.The world after 50 years: Everyone can back up “brain thinking”. The third world war broke out. “Brain thinking” is as cheap as gene sequencing. Everyone can use intelligence to enter all aspects of our daily life.Everything from homes, weapons, airplanes, trains and cars to roads, clothes, jewelry, headphones, glasses and eye contact is full of intelligence.Like the Human Genome Project, the global brain mapping competition will take decades and cost billions of dollars.These breakthroughs have driven a dramatic drop in the price of brain thinking information storage. After a few decades, you can easily map human thinking into the global reserve currency bitcoin and back it up to a distributed storage system.The low price allows everyone to back up their minds for later reopening in a clone or virtual way.Our glasses can show us the meta-information of the world around us through touch and shadow, from our familiar contact information, to the details of historical landmarks, to warnings of high crime areas to avoid.We can see the location of friends and family at certain times of the day.Self-driving has swept the world, and human driving has become a global phenomenon. In 2019, 1.25 million people died in car traffic accidents.On average, 3,287 people died each day.More than 20 million to 50 million people are injured or maimed.By 2029, the number of deaths caused by traffic accidents has dropped dramatically due to advanced surveillance cameras, and these cameras are more than just cameras.The car itself can contact the city where the city is located and tell them what happened, read the data from the car black box and signal the traffic control department to re-route the car and send help information.By 2039, cameras have spread from highways to all roads, helping automated caregivers to handle the scene in an extremely precise manner, robots are more flexible in rescuing victims, using antibiotics and other materials for emergency treatment, relieving pain, preventing sepsis, etc..The new law is constantly being introduced and the steering wheel will eventually disappear.By 2049, it was almost illegal to drive by humans without special permission, and almost no one died in a traffic accident.Human-powered cars have become a thriving niche market, just like the CD and Napster and the record market after the rise of AppleMusic and Spotify.The fast food country and the pessimists of the Third World War storm are right.AI really kills work faster than we do to replace work.But pessimists are also wrong, and it takes time and disaster to get the world back on track.By 2030, the deadly combination of authoritarianism, democratic decline, automated 3D and molecular printer-driven factories and autonomous vehicles has created a perfect storm.And fast food robots.The fast food industry embraces automation faster than anyone expected.As the fast food industry replaced people with machines, 3.8 million jobs evaporated overnight.The first to be replaced is the cleaner.Since you can spend $10,000 to buy a machine that is perfect for cleaning, never tires, and only needs to be maintained once a year for 50 years, why pay a minimum wage for humans? Soon, make burgers, oilThe fried chef and so on are all out.The company that resists automation has closed down.The government did not respond quickly enough.When the government tried to get people to work through the law, it only accelerated the collapse, because the fast-food chains that could not use automation were bankrupt.When the sharing economy company can send people to any place in a big city at a lower price in a short time, people no longer buy a car.Economies that rely on food service employment and global automotive supply chain capacity are hit hard.Singapore and Switzerland suffered losses as loans and investments dried up.The African miracle that relies on low-cost goods manufacturing has come to an abrupt end.The economic crisis quickly spread to Russia and the European Union, swept through Germany, France and Italy, and then in large areas of the United States.As happened many times in history, people are unemployed, people are angry, people who are doing nothing are wandering the streets, and extremist groups are breeding like cancer cells.Young people are fighting in the streets because their energy has no other way out.Unlike the wars of the past, when the Third World War broke out, no country on the planet was spared.It started out as a stealth cyber war, but quickly broke out as a full-scale attack on the grid and communications infrastructure, leaving people in the dark and isolated from the wider world.A few weeks later, the world superpower declared a war.In the escalating conflict, AI has played thousands of different roles.Bullets are rarely deflected because clever bullets turn at the corner and instinctively attack the target like a shark.Micro drones flocked in the city in groups, and their little “eyes” were arranged for changing goals.If they can’t find the target, they keep charging and go out until they find the target, hit the target like a dart, and then explode.The AI ​​commanded the war.Just as AlphaGo easily defeated the best Go masters in the world decades ago, the mysterious quantum computing AI carried out billions of virtual battles in eternal simulations, mastering the methods of smashing enemies, from full-war to guerrilla warfare.Then go to the complex counter-insurgency tactics of big and small.They are better than any general to conduct comprehensive macro-strategic analysis and combat command, send troops to fight on the mountains and beaches, send people and machines to kill, and the generals are increasingly relying on them to win wars instead ofDependent on human strategies.The special forces landed on stealth fighters, and their private combat assistants carefully designed every step they took, sneaked into the house at 0:30, and even killed high-value targets before the target got out of bed.These soldiers are centaurs, and their brains have sophisticated neural chains that allow them to directly access real-time artificial intelligence, speed up their reaction time and nervous system, while their nanowires build muscles on the stairs at superhuman, despite the high number of human deaths, every time a person dies, 10 robots die.More than a dozen different types of robotic soldiers joined the battle, from weight-bearing animals to self-propelled aircraft, to self-driving tanks, to fully armed robot soldiers.Finally, when the last shot finally started, 10 billion machines and 1.5 billion people were killed, and the world witnessed the horror it caused.But like all previous wars, this is not the end of life we ​​know.Human beings are born again from the ashes.The last war ended all wars, followed by a long period of peace.People go home and don’t want to fight anymore.They want to settle down, have children, and have a drink with friends to heal the wounds and scars of the past.The war has accelerated technological progress.Many technologies emerged during the Third World War, such as quantum computing, augmented reality, digital books, password voting platforms, molecular printing, payment systems, general learning algorithms, simulated human brain reverse engineering, and advanced medical diagnostic techniques.Both have entered the civilian sector.The battlefield once became a park.War AI has been repositioned as an AI that runs the entire economy, ordering them for products and services before they realize they want them, and guiding the factory to accelerate or slow down.As people need fewer jobs, the job market is beginning to enter an era of unprecedented growth.AI has created a lot of new work like never before.First, destruction, then creation.Before the old work disappeared, new jobs that we could not have imagined began to flourish.In any case, the economy reached a very prosperous level in the 2040s to 2050s.Next, we will go far beyond the next 50 years to see the world after five hundred years, a world beyond imagination.The world after 500 years: human colonization of the solar system, AI and human integration human civilization accelerated evolution, colonial solar system humans finally got rid of the shackles of this weak blue planet drifting in space.Human civilization began to spread into the solar system, and the colonization of other extraterrestrial planets in the solar system progressed smoothly.Deep-space mining ships release clouds of drones like baby spiders into the wind, and they digest the impact of asteroids in endless voids.These drones have caused an unprecedented construction boom on almost every planet that surrounds the sun.The fastest change happens on Mars.The red dust sea that once died is now full of new life.The descendants of immigrants to Martians do not need oxygen at all.Their lungs can switch back and forth between oxygen and carbon dioxide, and they can live in a carbon dioxide-saturated environment.The influence of human civilization is faster than ever.Everything is accelerating.Culture, economics, technology development.Economic prosperity – The cycle of depression has been dramatically shortened to months, not decades.The economic collapse hit like a mini tsunami and the recovery rate was equally fast.The decentralized Metaverse between the planets replaced the long-lost “Internet.”Metaverse is a lively AR/VR tapestry that transforms the entire solar system into an interactive system that superimposes matter and information into our eye and brain for augmented reality.Humans can drive anything, whether it’s a car or a ship, because everything from a starship to an ATV is fully automated and self-healing.AI does not replace humans, but the rise of AI with humans tells us that humans may be just another form of input and output.Vocabulary and emotion are programming languages ​​that machines can easily program.But this is not a hacker.We are not slaves.We want AI to program for us.The alarmist of artificial intelligence is afraid that AI will bring the end of humanity.But they are wrong.This is not a nightmare for super smart machines.Those things are just human dreams.What we face 500 years later will not be those machines that suddenly get to know and have feelings, and decided to destroy our machines like cockroaches.On the contrary, AI will enter our hearts, merge with us, and change us.AI even designed better AI to help us build better neural networks.We further miniaturize the already small neurons and wrap these networks around our body and mind, infused with a cobblestone-sized array.Humans are accelerating evolution, and today’s people will become “cherish animals” and ordinary people will slowly disappear.But as time goes by, future generations will become smarter.Soon those “post-humans” have risen around the world.They are smarter, faster, better looking, and more fascinating.Law and culture have changed.More and more people have changed their perceptions.Why also make your child face a deadly disease?If you can take birth control pills and double your metabolism, eat hamburgers every day and keep a good body, why not?Of course, this will not be a smooth transition process.There will be opposition and there will be setbacks.But like all violent movements, the raging storm will eventually dissipate and move forward again, nothing can stop the time trend.Reference source: hackernoon.