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Hype, slow down, serve the industry… let 5G fly for a while

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Editor’s Note: This article is from WeChat public account “Wise Finance” (ID: onecaijing), author Zijiang, 36氪 authorized to release.The original title “Let 5G fly for a while” said that the focus: 5G mobile phone purchases are not many, mainly used for speculation.Did not slow down, or related to the NSA network and the division of the rate.In the sinking market, thousands of 4G mobile phones are still the main force.Ordinary users do not feel much, 5G major service industry applications.Five years after 4G commercial use, 5G officially arrived.Compared with the fiery scene after the launch of 4G, the 5G desertion makes people clearly feel the contrast.The fundamental reason is that 5G technology is more inclined to serve B or C.Now it seems that the public’s expectation for 5G does not seem to be as hot as it is supposed to be. In the new era of communication, people look at it more and more calmly.An insider of China Unicom, who is in charge of business cooperation, told Wise Finance that 4G will still be in parallel with 5G in the future, and the development of 5G will not mature until two years later, and for users on the B side,The technology is in the experimental stage and cannot be quickly commercialized.“Like AI, driverless, these scenes are not commercially available in three or five years. It takes a long time to go. 5G is just to better serve these industries.” The person stressed that 5G is for ordinary users.There is no big difference between them, maybe the difference is that the speed is faster.According to a telecommunications industry analyst who did not want to be named, 5G is currently in its infancy, and many applications are still in a lab environment. In the short-term, it is impossible to achieve real commercial use. Ordinary users will be the fastest to experience 5G technology..Technology first applied, each generation of communication network update iteration will produce such an application blank, but for some cumbersome B-side applications, they can not quickly meet consumer demand, and the current ordinary consumersThe application is also only used to manipulate the IOT device.01 Hype first on August 16th, Huawei’s 5G mobile phone was officially released, and 11 days ago, ZTE’s first mobile phone was also on sale.However, compared with ZTE’s no one cares, Huawei is particularly dazzling.The 5G phone started its first journey.On the day of the release, “Wise Finance” went to Beijing Zhongguancun, Muxiyuan, Beijing major electrical appliance stores, and the three major operators’ business halls for investigation. The scene that thought that the fire broke out was extremely deserted.In the Unicom business hall located in Zhongguancun, there is a publicity display board for 5G mobile phones at the door. Most of the consumers who come to handle the business are handling packages or paying fees. Only three or four consumers ask whether there are 5G mobile phones for sale.How is the fee?”There are not many people to ask, but also buy, but most of them still hold a wait-and-see attitude.” A clerk in the office told Wise Finance.Similarly, in the Fangshan Palace business hall, the consumers who came to inquire were greater than the consumers who needed to buy.“There were a lot of people who bought it in the two days of the sale, but I think it’s like a mobile phone wholesaler.” The staff of the office confided to Wise Finance, and two or three young people came to buy Huawei 5G mobile phones, but in the hall.The supply is limited, and you can only apply for the transfer of goods to Unicom Huasheng headquarters.”These people said how much they want, and they have all the goods they want.” According to “Wise Finance,” the first batch of Huawei 5G mobile phones, due to limited production capacity, coupled with the increasing number of snap-ups, caused a tight supply of goods.A scenario that is in short supply.In the Internet e-commerce companies such as Jingdong Mall, Suning Tesco, and Gome, Huawei’s 5G models are out of stock, and purchases require reservations.”Wise Finance” has also personally experienced the snap-up process, but the page status automatically shows no goods after the purchase time.However, there is no such rushing scene for operators. The operators of the three major operators all said that the stores are in stock and can be purchased at any time.However, from the real situation, China Unicom’s shipments are greater than the other two.”Buy and sell again! Who is using 5G mobile phone now, so expensive.” At the Muxiyuan mobile phone store in Beijing, a shopkeeper took over the Huawei 5G mobile phone that the clerk had just bought from the business hall, and quickly checked it and handed it over to the next road.The clerk of the process.As the operator has regulations, the mobile phones purchased at the same place need to be unpacked and the warranty of the insurance card is torn off for archival purposes.”They all know us. We don’t need to activate the bag at boot. We all give it off when we take it down.” The clerk said to Wise Finance.The activation collar that he mentioned is the 5G promotion program launched by China Unicom on August 5th. Each user who purchases 5G terminals can log in to Unicom APP to receive the 100G 5G experience package before September 30th.The unsecured Huawei 5G mobile phone was re-sold on the counter.”As long as the background of Huawei is not activated, it will not display the time. Just like the Apple mobile phone, there is no record.” The owner explained that the machine after the general seal will not have problems.”It’s just got back from the hall. Can you have a problem?” On the day of the launch of Huawei’s 5G mobile phone, the model once had a premium of more than 400 yuan, and the unactivated mobile phone can earn 100 yuan.Another counter owner told Wise Finance, “The people who buy it are not used by themselves. You see, I have a lot of machines that are labeled with Jingdong. They are sold directly after they have robbed. There are familiar users.Go directly to me.” The same 5G mobile phone, ZTE and Huawei formed a sharp contrast.On the one hand, ZTE’s mobile phones are constantly weakening, and on the other hand, more consumers are treated differently about dual-mode phones.Mr. Duan, who came to China Unicom to buy a 5G mobile phone, said that he had studied at home whether he bought a single model or a dual model.”Because ZTE is earlier than Huawei, I want to not buy ZTE to experience it.” But in the end, Mr. Duan is still waiting for the release of Huawei 5G mobile phones.He told us two reasons. First, the thermal influence of Huawei brand is bigger than that of ZTE. Second, dual-mode mobile phones are better than single-mode mobile phones.“Who is such a expensive mobile phone?” Currently, Huawei 5G mobile phones support SA (independent networking)/NSA (non-independent networking) dual-mode, while other 5G mobile phones only support single-mode NSA, including OPPO., vivo, millet, and Samsung all adopt their standards.The biggest difference between SA and NSA is the core network.The SA is an independent network completely separated from the anchor of the 4G on the base station side. The core network completely converts from the EPC (Evolved Packet Core) to the 5GC (5G Core, 5G core network).The NSA non-independent networking is mainly supported by the 4G core network. It is generally considered that the core network is based on the 4GC EPC.Therefore, in a strict sense, the NSA networking should belong to the 4.9G network, while the SA is the 5G network.Currently, only Huawei’s Baron 5000 baseband chips can support both modes, while Qualcomm’s X50 5G baseband only supports the NSA mode.That is to say, among the mobile phones sold in the market, only the Huawei Mate 20 X 5G version is dual-mode, and the 5Gs such as ZTE, Xiaomi, and OV all use the Qualcomm Snapdragon processor, so the baseband only supports single mode.So, this has led to some users’ choices in the phone mode.Most consumers don’t consider which mode the phone itself supports, but some consumers still struggle between the two modes.”Wise Finance” also got the two 5G mobile phones, and received three operators 5G experience package for testing.We selected four areas in Beijing for 5G network testing, namely Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Datang Telecom Research Institute, Zhongguancun, and Financial Street.Among the four regions, there are only three major operators’ 5G signals in the vicinity of Financial Street and Datang Telecom Research Institute. However, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications only has Unicom 5G coverage, and there is no 5G signal coverage in Zhongguancun.And the measured maximum rate is 700Mbps, the average rate is about 300Mbps, and sometimes there is a rate of 10-30Mbps.In this regard, independent telecom operator Fu Liang said that if the 5G rate is lower than 200Mbps, it indicates that there are still problems in network optimization.A person inside China Unicom told Wise Finance that the coverage of Unicom in the whole Beijing area is still dominated by the four rings, and only the coverage of hot spots will be continuous, while the other areas will be point-based coverage, that is, no continuity.If the network edge or unoptimized area, the rate will be too low.”Now it is still based on testing. After all, it has not been officially commercialized.At present, the three major operators are advancing the deployment of 5G networks, but due to the 5G millimeter wave characteristics and high frequency, the coverage requirements are extremely demanding, which requires operators to increase the number of base stations deployed. 02 “No speed reduction,Or related to the unified value, “operators are again pressured. Recently, a chat screenshot was broadcasted on the Internet, and the chat content was requested by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to give the 4G network a 5G road to make way. In this news, the three major operators have rumored.In response to the notification that the relevant requirements have not been received, 4G will not slow down and will speed up. Even so, the slowdown of 4G network has been in a state of fermentation, which has attracted more and more consumers’ attention. 4G network qualityAnd the decline in experience has become a reality. “Really, with everything stuck, now the signal is getting worse.”A user spoke in a microblogging message from a carrier. Many users also said that they would really be speed limited. According to the screenshot of the chat, the downlink rate of the 4G network will be reduced from 300Mbps to 100Mbps.Whether it is 300 or 100, it is only the theoretical download rate of 4G network, and this speed change is not perceived by users in actual use. A staff engaged in network optimization of operators told Wise Finance: “Our general speed measurement isAt 10-20 Mbps, it won’t go high, because the base station load in each region is not the same, and the speed of people will naturally be slower.As in areas with few remote people, sometimes it can reach 80-90Mbps, which is not without it.”But it is not clear to the operator whether it is slowing down. “It may be the reason why the 4G and 5G network speeds are unified.Fu Liang said. He believes that in the environment of national speed-up and fee reduction, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is unlikely to go against the trend. But he also did not deny the problem of 100Mbps speed limit. According to the 5G free experience program announced by the three major operators, at 9Users who hold 5G terminals before the 30th of the month can receive 100G free experience traffic packets, and users who do not receive traffic packets will adopt 100Mbps rate capping measures to avoid high traffic. “Identifies whether 5G mobile phones are also recognized by open mobile phones.Permissions, the system is not so smart.The 5G network is indeed divided into two files, and the traffic rate is 100Mbps downlink rate, which is 1Gbps.”A Unicom insider said to Wise Finance. For the speed limit issue, he explained that this may be due to the rate limitation caused by the network mode problem. “In order to build the network fast, most regional base stations use NSA networking.So this problem may occur.In the previous article, we mentioned that the NSA network mainly relies on the 4G core network for construction. Therefore, according to this person, in order to be able to unify the threshold of the unreceived traffic packets, it is uniformly divided into 100Mbps speed limit. “General users are perceptions.”If it doesn’t come out, operators will generally not do this unless it is a technical condition.In recent years, with the proposal of the government’s speed-up plan, more and more consumers in the region have used 4G networks, which has made 4G networks mainstream. Nowadays, the country has begun to vigorously advocate 5G construction. Many people think that 4GConstruction is nearing completion, but it is not. According to Wise Finance, according to the operator’s plan, 4G will be parallel with 5G for a long time, and the total investment of 4G will still be parallel to 5G, even beyond 5G. China UnicomIt announced that it will recycle the 900MHz frequency band of 2G network in rural areas and remote areas for the development of 4G, which also indicates that 4G network is still the main force in some sinking areas. Moreover, operators should follow the state-advocate in the 5G construction.The base station is built and shared. The location of the 5G base station should be overlapped with 4G as much as possible to reduce the cost. “It is too expensive to build a new station in 5G. In the early stage, the NSA mode may be the main one, and the SA mode is supplemented.Invest in the construction of SA.”A network operator responsible for the operator said to Wise Finance. With this person’s argument, he feels that the cost of the operator’s 4G has not yet been recovered, and the country’s more than one billion consumers are using this network, they are notIt is possible to build 5G vigorously at a time. At the same time, he added: “The speed limit is not possible. It is possible to set a uniform threshold.”Another Unicom insider said, “Operators have operators’ considerations, and sometimes you can’t do it right.”03 “4G mobile phone is still the main force” The emergence of 5G terminals may slow down the sales of 4G terminals. According to market research firm IDC, global mobile phone shipments have been declining for two consecutive quarters.E-commerce and home appliance stores have also started to sell 4G mobile phones at a reduced price. In this regard, most of the market’s reaction is that 5G mobile phones are coming, and consumers are waiting to see. “We are selling very well here, not like you said.A dealer in Hebei said to Wise Finance. He said that customers who come to buy mobile phones every day are almost no one interested in 5G mobile phones. In some sinking markets of the third and fourth lines, the supply of 4G mobile phones remains.Far beyond the first- and second-tier cities, 4G mobile phones are still the main force of sales here. In a county town under Baoding City, Hebei Province, the logo of Huami OV is particularly conspicuous, and the posters are printed with promotional information for the month.The price is 200 yuan-300 yuan cheaper than the first- and second-tier cities. A mobile phone shop owner told Wise Finance, “We basically sell machines of 1,000 yuan to 2,000 yuan, like glory, millet, OV low-end machines.Selling very well, I have not heard anyone asking 5G.”What is 5G?”Now this is called 4G, watching the video is very fast.”I feel very good, can watch the video on a WeChat video chat, which is more convenient than calling to save money.In the 4G era where traffic is like the price of cabbage, more and more users in the sinking market have begun to choose the first 4G mobile phone in their lives, and even more people are still in the 2/3G era. Many sinking marketsOperators are beginning to popularize the advantages and tariffs of 4G networks, and even in some areas, they can get a brand new 4G mobile phone with an old mobile phone plus 300 yuan. The sinking rural market is beginning to usher in a change of tide, and this is not new.5G, but the 4G network we have used for five years. In addition to buying new mobile phones in operators or mobile phone stores, used 4G mobile phones have become the scent of these regions. A 4G network is supported.iPhone 6 only needs 400-500 yuan to win, iPhone 7 needs 900-1000 yuan. In the county area of ​​the third-fourth line, we see a lot of mobile phone stores with a variety of different brands of different functions.The mobile phones, including the cottages that disappeared in the first and second lines, and most of these cottages have 4G network functions. A mobile phone owner told Wise Finance, “To tell the truth, the cottage bought fewer people, mainly noGuarantee.You are the cheapest of the red rice, more than 500, the second-hand is also a hundred and two dollars, this is more affordable and guaranteed.However, it is rare to see the existence of high-end machines here, even Apple is only up to the iPhone 8 series. “The too expensive machine is really no one to buy.””In Beijing Zhongguancun and Shenzhen Huaqiang North, second-hand mobile phones are the protagonists here, but recent market price changes have caused some shop owners to have to make large-scale price adjustments again. “This is normal, not all the same in previous years, Apple wants to send new machines.”I must definitely raise the price.Apple is estimated to be finished this year, second-hand apples have to rise.”A counter owner told Wise Finance. At present, the price of second-hand Apple low-end machines has not changed significantly. The change lies in high-end machines. Like the iPhone X 64G, it is still 4000-4100 yuan a few days ago.100-200 yuan, 256G models also increased prices. For the rumors that the market 5G mobile phone sales to the second-hand 4G mobile phone, the store owner said, “I think this has nothing to do with 5G, mainly AppleSend a new machine.”For some shopkeepers who are engaged in the second-hand Android business, they have suffered a decline. “The Android machine has always been a diving king, and everyone knows.For some stores, they are eager to clear their positions, but Ma Jian does not agree. “Isn’t this every year?”The market is too sensitive and there is no need to be so nervous.He felt that the 4G dividend period still exists, and the 5G dividend period has not yet arrived. “The market still looks at Apple, although it is said that it can’t work, but it has always been a benchmark.”Apple 5G has not yet come out, and network coverage will not be so fast.”Ma Jian is still busy with the delivery of customers to the outside world every day, and his customers are mainly concentrated in the sinking market of the 3rd and 4th lines. “Thousands of dollars are available for more than one, like X, but very few.It is not bad to have five or six units a month.From the descriptions of these shopkeepers, we can see that they don’t worry too much about 5G, and 4G will still be the main force in the market, especially in some 3rd and 4th line sinking market. 04 “5G main direction is industry application”When new technologies come, it will definitely have a certain impact on the past technology, but for consumers, more people are still on the sidelines, because the advent of 5G will not bring icing on the cake to 4G consumers, it will onlyAccording to statistics, if the 5G commercial calculation by 2020 is expected to generate about 480 billion yuan of direct output in the same year, it will drive about 6.3 trillion yuan of output by 2030, with a compound growth rate of 29 in 10 years.Therefore, the industrial effect of 5G will bring the upstream (infrastructure construction) midstream (operator service) downstream (terminal and industry application) industry aggregation development. According to an unnamed analyst, it is predicted by 2030 that 5G will not be until 2030.It will become an important source of direct output, and during the period of 2020-2030, it will be the initial and medium term of 5G. “The fastest development period of 5G is also the development period of 10 years, the most important is the application of B-end industry Internet.The perception of ordinary users will only be faster than 4G, but the overall perception is not big.The analyst believes that in the C-end industry, because the bandwidth and traffic involved are not large, it is difficult for ordinary users to perceive the change in speed, and the perception in the B-end industry will be very obvious, especially AI, mobile medical., unmanned driving, enterprise cloud, smart city, smart home and other industries. “The direction of 5G main attack is still industry application.”In the future, the 5G priority application scenario will still be the AI ​​industry. According to the “New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan” issued by the State Council, China’s artificial intelligence theory, technology and application will reach the world’s leading level by 2030, becoming the world’s major artificial intelligence innovation.For AI, the most important thing is the support of IoT technology, while the technology supporting IoT technology is the communication technology behind it. As a paver of industry application, 5G is bound to provide powerful applications in the whole industry.Therefore, the development of 5G in the future will require at least 10 years of roads, and 5G will still mainly serve the industrial Internet, mainly serving industrial applications. However, the technological development of industries such as AI and unmanned driving still takes several years.Even decades of research and development can be achieved in a single day. 5G will develop in parallel with 4G for a long time. So let 5G fly for a while. Note: The respondent Ma Jian is a pseudonym.