Look at business with perspective.Super views, from the frontier observations of new business practitioners.
文 | Founder and CEO of Qiqi Lu Lu (formerly YC China)
Edit | Wenhua
1. The essence of entrepreneurs is to use technology to build products, use products to test the market, and meet demand.
2. There are three major elements of entrepreneurial innovation: technology, demand, and market. The organic combination of these three elements remains unchanged.
3. Economic development and technological development are closely integrated, and the core structure is energy and information.
4. A digital ecology is to build a core “definition experience” and “definition ability” on the basis of the platform, and promote large-scale innovation through extension.
Editor’s note: This article is compiled from a live broadcast co-sponsored by Super Salon X Qiji Chuangtan, and is abbreviated.Poke here to watch the full live broadcast >>
The world is undergoing a tremendous change. We have a global new crown epidemic that has not been encountered in a century. It has caused a large-scale impact on people’s lives, health and economic life on a global scale.At the same time, the future new world pattern created by the new crown will have a very large structural impact on the world. Therefore, the pattern of the world’s economic and political changes is also accelerating, and all walks of life are facing great challenges and uncertainties.
Throughout history, such a “black swan event” actually has a very large impact, and it will often allow the world to build a new environment, create a new world, and a better world. This is also an opportunity to open the way for this opportunity.It must be innovation.Especially technology-driven innovation.Especially today’s younger generation of entrepreneurs, you think how society will live and work in the future will be the decisive factor, because entrepreneurial innovation is the main source and cradle of innovation.However, the entrepreneur himself has to go through a very difficult process, full of uncertainty.Faced with such a new pattern today, where does the future go, and how should entrepreneurs face up to challenges and seize opportunities?
1. How to think about “facing challenges” and “taking opportunities”
Faced with challenges, it means that we must systematically and completely sort out the entire innovation ecosystem, and be able to see the market in a comprehensive manner. At the same time, we must fully analyze the risks brought by the new pattern-the scope of these risks, Non-deterministic time interval.
There are three links here: First, in the face of such a large degree of uncertainty, it is first necessary to find what is unchanged, which often depends on the structure and paradigm.Second, some changes are a long-term trend, we can see its rhythm and rules of change, so that we can easily control.Third, there are some changes that are environmental and will change suddenly. It is difficult to predict the scope of these impacts, and strive to be prepared for the worst and be able to adapt to changes.Only in this way can we eliminate anxiety, confusion and correct judgment.At the same time, to seize the opportunity, we must do more effectively.To live longer, live stronger, and iterate faster to find a product market match, our core is on these two points: we must face the challenges and seize the opportunities.
Picture source Lu Qi PPT
How do we analyze these two cores carefully and comprehensively, the first one, think more clearly.How to think more clearly, the starting point is to grasp the system structure of entrepreneurial innovation, which is unchanged.
There are three major elements of entrepreneurial innovation, and the organic combination of these three elements remains unchanged.The first is technology. Technology is always the most permanent and powerful driving force for innovation.The second is demand. Technology alone is useless. There must be a clear demand. Long-term and large-scale demand is a foundation for innovation to really land.The third is to have a market environment, be able to make money, and be able to make a profit. Only in this way can a good entrepreneurship grow in the long term.The essence of entrepreneurs is to use technology to build products and use products to test the market to meet the demand. Therefore, the core of entrepreneurs is to live long enough to match the products with the market.
But these three core elements themselves will change. What we just said is that the core game rules remain unchanged. We need to improve our ability to survive and find product market matches faster.But the three major factors will change. It has its own evolutionary laws and trends. Then we need to do a systematic analysis to seize the opportunity and control the risks.
First of all-technology, technology has its long-term development laws and trends. The long-term development trend we need to look at is the so-called inflection point, because technology is gradually entered into practicality from early exploration.Good entrepreneurs, such as Apple’s Jobs, are particularly strong in this judgment.In addition, there will be breakthroughs in technology, and sometimes talented scientists will suddenly have large-scale breakthroughs in a certain field, and we have to pay attention.
The second core element-demand, demand also has a stable structure, personal needs, corporate needs, government needs, etc., it has a stable basic structure, but the demand is also constantly increasing, we can also see the growth of demandTrend, but demand will be affected by the environment. For example, the big challenge brought about by this new pattern is to start from demand and produce a chain effect.
The third is the market. The market and the basic environment, such as capital and talent, basically follow its core rules, especially the capital market.At the same time, any startup company must manage the upstream and downstream environment for survival and development.Your upstream and downstream are determined by the big environment, and every startup has to make corresponding judgments. These are the core three elements that we use to do a complete large-scale analysis carefully.
1.1. The nature of technology
Next, let’s look at technology first, observe the development trend of technology, and make some judgments.To judge the trend of technological development, we first need to understand the nature of technology, which has three points.
Picture source Lu Qi PPT
First, the essence of technology is first based on natural phenomena.Second, it must have a corresponding scientific theory to explain this natural phenomenon.Third, this technology is an ability to change natural phenomena and meet human needs. This is the essence of technology.
In addition, the two core elements of technology are also very important. One is that it is programmable and there is a process of information.Why do you say this?First of all, we have to understand the existing information process of natural phenomena. To change the natural phenomenon, we must define a new process according to our needs. The more demand, the more complicated the demand, the more complicated the information process, this is the digital technologyAnd ability are increasingly important.
Another point is that it is executable. Essentially, we need tools and systems to change natural phenomena through physical processes, chemical processes, and biological processes. The core here is the need for energy and the need for materials, equipment, and processes.So all this is the essence of technology, and our judgment on technology development trends should be based on these two cores.
Technology itself is structured, any technology is a combination-a new combination of original technologies, or self-similarity.Use the same technology to solve more and more complex problems by combining with other technologies.Science is the foundation of technology, but technology will continue to evolve and evolve, similar to Darwin’s evolution, but different places-the direction of technology selection evolution is to choose places where human needs are high, because the essence is to change natural phenomena and satisfy humanity.demand.
Therefore, to judge the trend of technology development, I think that most people have to change their mindset. We cannot only look at the nature of technology, but more importantly, the relationship between technology and human needs, and its close integration.It is very important to judge the trend of technology must be closely integrated with the trend of human needs.In addition, with the enhancement of digital technology capabilities, the combination of soft technology and hard technology is getting closer and closer, because once a natural phenomenon is digitized, we can meet the needs and speed of human needs will be higher and higher, so, judge the technicalThere are several major trends and points in the development trend.
1.2 Observe the trend of technological development from human history
Next, we observe from the history of human beings, and we can fully see the trend of technological development that we just mentioned.
This is a summary of a picture of human history, technological development and economic development:
Picture source Lu Qi PPT
We can see that economic development and technological development are closely integrated, and the core structure is energy and information. The main paradigms and systems of development in any era are determined by the combination of energy and information.Another driving factor is the so-called general purpose technology, GPT (General Purpose Technology). This picture shows all the important general capabilities invented in history, but we have three major systems and three stable paradigms.
The first is agriculture, because the energy of agriculture is very special, and it is free solar energy. Our production capacity is basically from a certain land, and it is used for output through photosynthesis at an appropriate ambient temperature, so the information process is relatively simple, and the tools are relatively simple.Human behavior is relatively simple, generally speaking, labor is enough.
The second system is the industrial system. The energy of the industrial system is fossil energy, and the main form of energy is electricity.Electricity requires equipment, mechanical equipment, motor equipment, electrical equipment, electronic equipment, etc. People need to do more because the process of changing the natural structure of information structure is more complicated.So this is an era of mass production of human skills, like universities, tailors, chefs, lawyers, doctors, engineers, etc., which are the characteristics of the industrial era.
Today, we are in an era of information, digitization, and knowledge-driven. You can see in the above figure, this curve, which grows very fast on the far right, has a total history of more than 60 years.Because in the last century, we invented a general-purpose computer, the ability of human beings to obtain information and process information is rapidly improving, the core of this era is the combination of energy and information, which is to continuously obtain knowledge from information through digitization, and use knowledge toQuickly recombine new energy forms and new technologies, new materials, new biological processes, life processes, new processes, etc. to meet human needs, and the skills that people have done are not enough, people needAbility is the ability of an innovative combination.
So here are a few points that are very important, in terms of technology development trends and entrepreneurial ecology.First of all, the development of technology is accelerating, especially the blue S curve on the far right, which is growing very fast. If you pay attention to the global stock market, you know that the companies with the largest market value today are on this curve.More than 20 years ago, the largest market value was on another industrial curve.For the audience who participated in the live broadcast today, no matter what you started from, in the long run, your company is best driven by information, digitalization and knowledge, then you will be on this high-speed growth curve.
At the same time, the degree and progress of digital technology are accelerating, especially the new pattern brought by the epidemic, because even if the epidemic is to be controlled faster, it essentially requires more life science, biomedical capabilities, and moreMany digital capabilities, many of which are related to the epidemic situation, are actually digital capabilities, so this curve will continue to grow at a high speed.
In addition, why Qiqin is so focused on entrepreneurship, because in this era, skills alone are not enough, and you cannot create large-scale value.Creating a large-scale value depends on the combination of innovation.Entrepreneurship is the mainstream of the future, because this is the core paradigm for economic value generation, and a form of regrouping and quickly meeting human needs.At the same time, the frontiers of technology, especially in the 21st century, you can look at the frontiers of all technologies, such as digitalization, materials, biology, life sciences, and new energy, which represent the ability to meet more and more human needs in the future.
Here I want to emphasize that for entrepreneurs, you don’t necessarily need a technical background. I have worked with many entrepreneurs. University has nothing to do with technology. You have to do it through continuous learning and with others.Communication, we can have more and more powerful ability to judge the trend of technological development. We are very convinced that technology is the longest innovation and the most energy driving force. For any startup, we must pay attention to the trend of technological development.If a good entrepreneurial team can see the future technology very far, and at the same time have unique insights, such companies often have few competitors as long as they do well.
1.3. Frontiers of overall technology development
Next, I describe the overall development frontier of technology, digitalization, new energy, new technology and its trends, because as mentioned earlier, digitalization is the core element driven by modern technology, including new energy, biomedicine, materials, manufacturing, aerospaceAnd so on, they are also advancing side by side, and the development is getting faster and faster. This is the frontier of the entire technological development.Let’s take a closer look at the components of these frontiers, and what trends we can analyze to help us determine which opportunities are available to entrepreneurs.
Picture source Lu Qi PPT
First of all, let’s talk about digitalization. At the level of digitalization, there are sixty or seventy years of history. In fact, it has certain rules and long-term trends. On average, every 12 years or so, there is a new generation of digital platforms and digital ecology. This ecologicalThe structure determines the future development trend.Here I briefly explain the core structure of this ecology, on the left side of the above table.
In a digital ecosystem, the bottom layer is a computing platform. This computing platform is driven by the scale of front-end interaction and back-end computing. For example, in the PC era, interaction is the mouse and keyboard, and the backend is the server and local network..At the same time, a digital ecosystem is to build a core “definition experience” and “definition capability” on the basis of the platform, and promote large-scale innovation through extension.In the PC era, the defining experience is a Windows operating system and office software, but it can be developed and extended a second time. The defining capability of the background is the database, and any enterprise management is inseparable.Through a good business model, such an ecosystem can promote large-scale innovation. The core point of this innovation is what scope it digitizes and how the breadth and depth of digitization are promoted.The core digitization of the PC ecosystem is enterprise information circulation and enterprise information management. It is getting wider and deeper, but it is an enterprise, and the enterprise alone is already a large ecology of several trillion dollars.
Next, our digital ecosystem has been around for several decades. Today’s mainstream ecosystem is mobile and cloud, and the AI, edge, and 5G ecosystems that have grown up gradually.
The mainstream ecology of innovation today is basically in the ecology of cloud and mobile.In terms of the core defined experience and defined capabilities of the cloud, the defined experience is some core applications on the mobile terminal. It inherits the previous generations of digital capabilities, especially the Internet, PC Internet, and the essenceThe above is digitized global image-based information, product information, product flow, etc.It is mainly the circulation of the industry, the circulation of goods, e-commerce, advertising, etc. The mobile era promotes this deeper and wider, because we can use mobile phones to digitize, people’s daily life, including payment, travel, etc., this opportunitygetting bigger.
But the bigger opportunity, the more important one, is cloud services and SaaS in the next 10, 20, and 30 years.Because the deployment and development of SaaS is much superior to the previous generation in this generation, it can sink to the supply side, sink to any enterprise, and greatly increase the economic capacity of the entire country through informatization and digitization.Therefore, in the cloud era, large-scale opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship are very natural on the B side.
why?We have to look at the essence of this ecology, what is its core competence, what does it digitize, how is the breadth and depth of digitization promoted, and it is very important in the mobile ecosystem.Value, especially cloud.The new pattern brought about by the new crown epidemic has greatly increased the importance of cloud and the opportunities will also increase.
More importantly, the AI era has already begun.In the AI era, we can take a look at what computing platforms need to do. First, the interaction method in the AI era is to open all future spaces of interaction through sensors and actuators. Any form of interaction can be done. Natural language dialogue, vision, Automatic systems, robots, etc., there is a lot of room for future industrial development.At the same time, the core technology of artificial intelligence, the cloud and the end, starting from the chip, to the underlying software, to the operating system, to the development tools, all have to have new, great opportunities.In addition, the definitive experience is still early, but it may become definitive-autonomous driving, robots, smart places, retail, schools, hospitals, etc.Each piece can be cut into a big future industrial ecology.
The scope of digitization is very special in the era of artificial intelligence, which is essentially a sensor and actuator, which is a fusion of the digital world, the physical world and the biological world.So in the era of artificial intelligence, many early applications are on the B side, because we can do a lot of automation.Any industry, any profession, doctors, lawyers, teachers, can be improved with artificial intelligence technology.Of course, the current large-scale application of artificial intelligence technology is actually in the mobile ecosystem, used for content recommendation, e-commerce shopping guide, video understanding, cloud intelligence, etc., so artificial intelligence is very rare in history.To increase production capacity and expand commercialization opportunities on such a large scale.At the same time, new frontiers outside of artificial intelligence have also been opened, including AR, VR, quantum computing, and blockchain.Artificial intelligence and quantum computing, these are two very important breakthroughs, which can be seen in our time.
At the same time, this frontier is also rapidly developing in other technical fields, such as new energy. Everyone may be concerned about Tesla. Tesla is an energy company, and its first application is automotive.In addition, in life sciences, such as synthetic biology, genetic technology, etc., there are many closely related to digital technology, all are developing at a high speed, new materials, new manufacturing, new aerospace, to explore the opportunities brought by new space.So if we put the whole together, the frontiers of technological development that we can see now are accelerating, and because of the new pattern brought about by the new crown epidemic situation, there will be more demand for these technologies just mentioned. The development of these technologiesWill accelerate further.
From an investment perspective, we are very concerned about these core areas.First, cloud and mobile, we have begun to support a considerable number of entrepreneurial teams, especially on the basic services side of the cloud.We have long believed that cloud basic services and cloud 2B direction are very important.Secondly, in the field of artificial intelligence, we are very concerned. For example, in the area of artificial intelligence core technology, we have also invested in quite a few start-up companies.Including some startups that have grown into very large ecological potentials in the future, we are also very concerned.Especially in the early application of artificial intelligence, cutting into industrial verticals, and doing automation, there are quite a few opportunities. We have also invested in several excellent startup companies.At the forefront, we have also invested in several brain-computer interfaces, new energy, biomedicine, and new materials.This is the frontier of technology digitization, the essence of science and technology, and the never-ending frontier. It is always driven by the development of science and human needs. The new pattern brought about by the new crown epidemic will definitely bring the frontier of technology development.Moved forward.
1.4. How the new landscape will accelerate technological development
Picture source Lu Qi PPT
In fact, on a global scale, large economic entities currently have a large amount of R&D investment to help countries recover from the new crown epidemic, and at the same time build up their ability to defend against future outbreaks.Such a large-scale investment, in essence, we think it can be compared with the historical national economic entities’ investment in national defense. No modern economic entity can be without national defense. This is the core foundation. The national defense industry will always have a place and occupy an important position.The location of technical input.
Only this time, national defense is special. The enemy is not a human being. The enemy is an invisible virus and other natural disasters.This defense investment has two levels, front and rear. The front directly deals with the virus on the front line. The first is detection technology, including nucleic acid detection technology, serum detection technology, etc., including real-time site inspection, and largeLarge-scale high-throughput detection platform, which is increasingly becoming a core demand capability.The other is drug development, anti-toxic drugs, antibody drugs, etc. The speed of development and the speed of clinical trials are crucial.The same is true for vaccine development. The speed of vaccine development and the speed at which vaccines pass Phase I and Phase II clinical trials are key, and the ability of telemedicine will also be greatly improved.This is a large-scale scientific research and development capability invested ahead.
At the same time, we also see a new front, because the epidemic represents a natural disaster, but we have another increasingly important natural disaster, which is global warming, the development of carbon dioxide curing technology, and engineering development capabilities.The investment will form a very large industry for a long time, and it is now a good opportunity to vigorously promote the development of technology in this regard.
There are also several important aspects in the rear. The first is that the integration between the digital core technology and offline infrastructure should be accelerated, because in the rear, epidemic management, monitoring, tracking, etc. are essentially digital capabilities and offlineA complete integration of entities, the new infrastructure here is a very timely and wise policy that will accelerate such development.At the same time, online core services, such as cloud computing, video communications, and telecommuting, have become a core supporting service of the national economy. In the case of an epidemic, such services are necessary, and the development of technology will naturally accelerate.At the same time, automated autonomous systems, such as robots, autonomous driving, etc., are becoming more and more important in the epidemic situation, and the development of technology will naturally accelerate.
Finally, I would like to mention to you that historically, research investment in national defense has often produced great value for civilian development in the long run.For example, today’s Internet is an early stage of scientific research invested by national defense.Therefore, the new pattern as a whole has accelerated some core technologies and the process of digitization.
2. See the innovation opportunities of C-end and B-end from the change of demand trend
2.1 C-end innovation opportunities
What I have just talked about is technology, and overall it is accelerated. Next, we will analyze it from the demand side.
Picture source Lu Qi PPT
First of all, let’s take a complete and detailed analysis of individual needs, C-end needs.C-end demand essentially has a certain long-term stable structure and principles. The core principle is basically the Maslow demand level that everyone knows.In addition, I personally recommend it to all entrepreneurs and people who make products. The most important point is that Amazon’s founder Bezos put forward such a concept more than two years ago that users will never be satisfied.There is always a better way to meet the needs that have been met. This is the most important principle.
For example, everyone knows ZOOM. At the beginning, everyone said that there are already so many video conferencing software, what is the probability of success?However, ZOOM is already a very fast-growing enterprise today, and its core is that the product is easy to use, the same as the meeting, but the drive is smoother.So everyone needs to pay attention that users will never be satisfied.Based on this, a complete analysis logic is to divide people into groups, and according to the length of time, 24 hours a day, it can be seen that there is a large demand pattern.
Here are listed, the first is communication and social, we think this is the long-term need of human beings, entrepreneurs will always have the opportunity, because the needs of communication can always be met better, the same is true of social, as the media progresses, tools improve1. There will always be opportunities for changes in the crowd.A good communication or social product, its commercial value will be quite large, so we will always pay attention to these two core areas.
The third entertainment, why is it a very important track, because the demand-time consumption becomes more and more important.With the economic development, even in the case of an epidemic, you will spend more and more time at home, so content, content recommendations, and content formats, especially short videos and live broadcasts, are very important.
Here I mention a little bit, why do we attach so much importance to short video and a new content format like live broadcast, because all the current human-computer interaction and mainstream content formats are in 1968 by two Turing Award winners DouglasEngelbart and Alan Kay, the interaction paradigm they defined is to describe a thought space based on text and images. Then we can design menus, slide up and down, click, etc., but this interaction is indirect interaction with the world, through otherA person’s description.Video, especially direct-screen video, has begun to bring a new pattern. We can directly interact with the world. Live broadcasting is a very simple interaction in a sense, but the future expandable space is very, very large.Therefore, the entertainment level is a very, very important requirement.
Consumption, we believe that e-commerce and the new business system (new retail) will be a space with huge development potential, and there is a lot of entrepreneurial space.In addition, we are also more concerned about the two bottom needs, namely education and medical care. In China, they both have demand far greater than supply. Good technology, good products, and good entrepreneurs will have more and moreMore opportunities, this is an overall pattern of C-side demand.
Let’s analyze what kind of impact the new pattern will bring.The first is a special point in time. It is very important to develop new habits in a short time.To make products, especially startups, it is extremely difficult for users to develop a new habit, especially to change old habits and develop new habits.However, the epidemic caused many people to develop new habits at once, and also changed some old habits. This has accelerated the development of business and demand for some.At the same time, the new pattern of the epidemic has increased the acceptance of new concepts. Some concepts may take 5 or 10 years to be accepted, and some concepts may be accepted immediately under the new pattern. For example, remote home work, this concept has been accepted by some people.I have also developed this habit.
So according to this analysis, some industries, such as consumer, e-commerce, and logistics demand are increasing, but some offline services are affected by the epidemic. Here we need to determine the scope and timing of the impact.There are some areas such as travel, part of the demand is to be affected, long-term this possibility, we need to prepare for the worst result, some of the existing demand may be met by other products or forms, this is the existence of our concernrisk point.For example, fitness at home, this is another new demand, financial services, education, medical online, this demand is also accelerating.This is a relatively complete analysis of the system. What personal C-end needs can bring us entrepreneurs the opportunity, and how to control the risks we face.
2.2 B-end innovation opportunities
Next, let’s talk about the analysis of B-end demand and observe the impact of the new pattern on B-end demand.
Picture source Lu Qi PPT
First of all, the demand for B-end also has its long-term structure and principles and development trends.For any enterprise, its long-term demand is always to increase output and reduce costs. In addition, it also needs to be at the capacity side, including production is better, sales are better, customer management is more effective, supply chainAnd funds management.According to this demand pattern, we can see from the technological frontiers mentioned above, which B-end needs can be continuously met through entrepreneurial innovation, which are all very good opportunities and tracks for entrepreneurs.
The first is enterprise informatization, where enterprise informatization is divided into big B and small B, because the needs of big B and small B are very, very different. Generally, few companies do well in big B and small B.There are many types of requirements for big B informatization, which are very complex. From office efficiency improvement, process management, life cycle management, resource management, customer management, to sales, marketing, customer service, etc., including information management in vertical industries, there are manyBig long-term needs.
In China, the 2B market is relatively low in penetration rate, and the sales cycle is relatively long. It takes a certain time to polish the foundation, but it is very valuable in the long term and has great value.Because 2B companies, especially big B, once you enter it is difficult for you to come out, occupying a position, long-term is very important for a startup company.Little B’s pain point is very clear, that is, customer acquisition and marketing, there will be opportunities.
The next layer is enterprise automation and intelligence. Its demand has been there for a long time. It is only a characteristic of artificial intelligence technology, which can make us more and more effectively meet the needs of more enterprise automation.In the realm of Industry 4.0, informatization, automation and intelligence are integrated.
The core of the circulation between enterprises is the information docking work to be done by the enterprise Internet, and the demand is increasing.With the improvement of the enterprise’s capabilities, its demand for upstream and downstream management is also increasing. The demand for B2B trading platforms will naturally exist; supply chain management, warehousing logistics management, capital management, risk management and other needs are increasing, we seeMany startups are exploring and embracing the new needs of such enterprises.The other is agricultural digitization, automation and intelligence. Agriculture is inherently difficult to digitize because either a PC or a mobile phone is difficult for agricultural digitization. Artificial intelligence is turned on all at once. Digitalization, automation, and intelligence can all be done.Do it together, so there are many opportunities to increase efficiency on a large scale.
The last layer is what we are most concerned about, is the demand for digital infrastructure.Because we need to fully meet the needs of the B-end just now, our basic and technical capabilities must be rapidly improved. This demand is constantly increasing, including big data systems, information knowledge management systems, backbone cloud services, open source systems, etc..Here I refer to Web RTC. Students who are familiar with it all know why today ZOOM can do it so quickly. So many companies have developed their own video conferencing software. The core is that Web RTC has an open interface and open source.For such an ecology of the Lord, we will need more and more such capabilities in the future.For example, the ability to develop without code, so we pay close attention to these core requirements.
Let’s analyze what changes and impacts the new pattern will bring to the B-end.First of all, the acceptance of new concepts and the formation of new habits. As mentioned earlier, remote office has been accepted, and large companies have begun to pay.However, due to changes in the global political and economic situation brought about by the new pattern, supply chain and capital are indeed challenges that many companies may face. For startups, they must pay attention, predict risks, and prepare for emergency.For the demand of Big B, in the case of an epidemic, the status of resumption of work will also partially affect some of the demand.Little B has some impact on the service industry’s local demand. This is a fact. We hope that each entrepreneur must fully estimate his own risk.
We believe that it is a very, very good opportunity for the new infrastructure of enterprise automation and intelligence and the import substitution brought by the new pattern.The circulation demand of industrial Internet and logistics is increasing, and the circulation of supply chain and capital may be partially affected by the new pattern in the short term.Agricultural digitalization and automation are accelerating, and there are many opportunities.The following enterprise digital infrastructure, due to the changes in the global pattern brought about by the new pattern, the need for self-built technology ecology in China, and new infrastructure, etc., have brought more opportunities for industry development.Speaking is a good acceleration point.
3. Challenges and opportunities from the perspective of market environment trends
Just after the demand analysis is over, finally analyze the market environment trends and the impact of the new pattern.
Macroscopically speaking, market environment trends basically have several major dimensions.The first is the demand side, supply side, and circulation side. Everyone is familiar with the long-term trends in China. The consumption upgrades, the production capacity of the manufacturing industry, the service industry, the logistics circulation, the population is increasing, and I will talk about capital.The impact of the global regional economy, the impact of the policy environment, etc., the impact caused by the new pattern, we have basically mentioned above, here is just to repeat the summary.
Here I mention a little bit about the capital environment. Our view is that the capital market is inherently cyclical and long-term in nature. In the long run, it always pursues returns, and its reaction speed is relatively fast, so the impact will be, but weJudging that this is short-term, as long as the enterprise is doing well, the opportunity to obtain capital will always be there. This is a judgment of the overall market environment.
The picture comes from Lu Qi PPT
If we combine the overall analysis of the three core elements just mentioned, and then go back to the chart we started (above), what is unchanged in entrepreneurship, what is unchanged is to test the market with products, changeIt is technology, demand and market changes.This table here is a brief summary of my previous analysis. You can see that it brings more opportunities. There are risks in some areas. We must fully estimate the scope and time period of risks. It is best to do the worst.Prepare for the situation and be able to respond flexibly.By doing so, we can relieve our anxiety, and we can go from “thinking more clearly” to “doing more effectively” with more confidence.”Make it more effective” means that the core must grasp this unchanging game rule. What is unchanging is to live long enough to iterate rapidly and find product market matches.The most important thing here is the entrepreneur, and the most effective element for entrepreneurs to do is the most important element.
Back to the track record, all we do is work with entrepreneurs to provide valuable things.Here I want to emphasize one point. When you encounter challenges, if you can get support, it is a very good thing. It can grow very fast. This is a lot of system verification. The rapid growth of people is in a challenging and supportive environment.Down, so challenge plus support equals growth plus opportunity.
The core here is entrepreneurs. We have a very unique method to screen entrepreneurs. There are a few important points that we are more concerned about:
First, for the judgment of the future, we hope that good entrepreneurs can see far, and at the same time have very clear and unique insights.Second, it must be very action-oriented, and you can always find methods and solve problems quickly.The third is to have very strong thinking and communication skills. In the early days of entrepreneurship, thinking and communication are very very core. Financing depends on communication, and hiring also depends on communication.Fourth, there is a long-term driving force to go far.This is our special screening method for entrepreneurs, especially first-time entrepreneurs. The core is to have such elements.
Here I would like to emphasize to you that there are many investment cases relative to technological development and demand, but we are most concerned about the founder. We look at all projects and are not limited. Our core concept is the best entrepreneurshipHe will always be able to grasp the good track in the future. You have to find a good track to vote. Your core is to find the best entrepreneur.Therefore, to find good entrepreneurs and provide valuable help, especially through the entrepreneurial camp, to become their co-founders is our core.
I strongly believe that through such interactions today, we will form more and more cooperation mechanisms. Through the joint efforts of everyone, we can make the entire early-stage entrepreneurial ecology in China more prosperous, let every entrepreneurial team, every entrepreneurThe person can better face the challenge and seize the opportunity.
Q1: Which barriers to technology entrepreneurship are lower and more friendly for non-technical entrepreneurs?I understand that AI To B entrepreneurial barriers will generally be higher than the previous technology era, what do you suggest?
@陆奇博士: First of all, I would like to thank this classmate for his question. This question has several dimensions. I try to answer it.The first is the technology barrier. Which industries have relatively high technology barriers and which industries have relatively low technology barriers, especially for non-technical entrepreneurs.Let me first talk about the situation of non-technical background. I personally think that non-technical background is not an essential problem. I used to work with many very good people in Silicon Valley. For example, LinkedIn CEO Jeff Weiner, he is not a technical background, butHis learning ability and ability to judge the future are strong enough, he can find first-class engineers, and first-class engineers are willing to work closely with him.So non-technical background doesn’t matter. I suggest that you don’t use it as a core barrier, because you can make up for this through hard work, interaction, and attracting first-class technical personnel. This is the first point.
The second point, from the technical threshold, I want to share a few points.First of all, in the ecology of mobile and cloud, especially in the C and B side, in most environments, the technical threshold is relatively speaking, because we have accumulated a large number of open source software, cloud platforms, cloudEcology and more and more public APIs.Therefore, any entrepreneurial team does not need to write a lot of code in most cases. You only need to make part of the customer needs and make the product. This can relatively form your core intellectual property rights and core technology.So in the cloud and mobile ecosystems, technical barriers are relatively low.
In the era of artificial intelligence, technical barriers are relatively high. This is where our entire industry needs to work together.For example, there are many startup companies doing natural language processing (speech recording, machine translation, speech understanding, etc.), its barriers are actually quite high, you need a high-end technical team dozens of people to develop for several years, this is a time and capitalRequirements are particularly high.You can choose to use a third party, such as the third-party technology of iFLYTEK or a large enterprise, but the challenge posed by third-party technology is that once you have done your business well, you do not have any technical barriers, you need to attach to a firstTripartite provider.For entrepreneurs, AI To B, as mentioned by this classmate, is indeed relatively high on many levels.Here, the entire industry needs to gradually lower the threshold through various efforts, especially some large research institutions and large enterprises.We should pay more attention to open source software and open interfaces. At the same time, we must encourage the entire ecology to allow everyone to form more open data sets and open interfaces. But this requires a process and requires many efforts.
After saying this, we also saw that the barriers of AI To B are relatively high today, but we also see more and more good startups.One of the core is to find a strong enough technical ability. At the same time, in the AI To B track, another core element is not a technical barrier, but an in-depth understanding of the industry.In the track of AI To B entrepreneurship we saw, in many cases, customer satisfaction is low, because this entrepreneurial team is basically technology-driven, they took an AI ability and wanted to cut in, but did not cut through one.Scenes.If you want to cut deep and thoroughly, you need someone with a non-technical background but who knows the industry well.We often recommend people who have done sales or BD in Party A. It is best to be able to dig them up to join such an entrepreneurial team.This combination, through good technical ability and understanding of the industry, can overcome this barrier and can do better in a track like AI To B more effectively.
Q2: Although users are never satisfied, the degree of satisfaction of many needs is the result of scale and network effects, such as many social and even communication products.So what are the opportunities for products that already have a strong scale effect and a strong network effect?
@陆奇博士: Very good question. Thanks to the question raised by this classmate. It seems that you may have made products in this field and have also made a lot of observations.Indeed, many products, such as content recommendation, search engines, and social communication, the degree to which it can meet the demand is related to the scale.
If the previous product already has a large scale, where is the opportunity for the new product to cut in?There are several levels to consider here:
First of all, if you want to cut into a new social scene, it is better to cut into a narrower crowd, or a more limited scene. In such a crowd and scene, another player (such as today’s giant), its scale effectIn the combination of the scene and the crowd you enter, there is little impact. This is an opportunity for you to enter.
On the second level, I personally pay more attention to social products and communication products. Their cores are based on today’s mainstream carriers and mainstream content forms.Specifically, the mainstream today is text and images. Once the future mainstream carrier and form change, such as video or 3D content, after the carrier changes, you have two options.For example, if we share 3D content in a community, you can share 3D content in the original social product. However, through the container of the original social product, 3D content may not display well. This is the first option.Then another possibility for you is to copy the social network in the 3D content tool. I think this is also a considerable opportunity.Because the innovation of carriers and tools is endless, there will always be new carriers and new tools. Entrepreneurs who are interested in communities and communication products, we believe that there will still be value that is worth exploring in the long run.The question raised by this classmate is quite good.
Q3: I would like to ask Mr. Lu Qi. I am a practitioner of quantum computing. At present, I have observed a lack of breakthroughs in the software level, and no hardware landing. There is no money and ability to buy equipment at the hardware level.In addition, regardless of the high technical barriers of software and hardware, and the control of well-funded scientific research institutions and large enterprises, can you say that it is not suitable for entrepreneurship in the quantum computing industry in the short term, or that new ideas are needed?
@陆奇博士: This is a very good question.In the United States, YC has invested in a quantum computing startup called Rigetti, which has done quite well in quantum computing startups, but the problem you describe is indeed the current status of the quantum computing industry.From the core task of quantum computing to solve, whether you use superconducting methods or other physical methods and mechanisms, it requires large-scale investment and large-scale top talent, which is really difficult for a startup company.Did it.In addition, the development of software, especially some core applications, also requires talents with very top technology. Therefore, from the perspective of entrepreneurship, I do think that the opportunities are relatively limited, but science is always constantly improving and developing, and there will always be opportunities in the future.Presented.
For this classmate, I suggest that you may be concerned about the future development of quantum computing hardware and software in a certain state of development. What can be considered is the software foundation for the future quantum computing ecology.If there is a Linux in future quantum computing, a MySQL, and a development tool, what will it look like?Because quantum computing in the future is very large, not only traditional computing, I personally may prefer quantum chemistry, quantum materials, etc., which can greatly enhance capabilities.Therefore, if you are a technical expert, you need to maintain sensitivity and maintain attention, and I very much hope that you can gradually find good entrepreneurial opportunities.
Q4: Is it possible for the threshold and barriers of B-end technology entrepreneurship to be lowered, so that startups without technology giants can enter the low-end market that giants are reluctant to take into account, for example, is it possible for AI capabilities to be free?
@陆奇博士: Thanks for the question raised by this classmate, I personally think that this is what we in the entire industry should pay attention to together. Through the cooperation of the overall ecology, the threshold and barriers of B-end technology will be gradually lowered. This is entirely possible.achieve.I talked about my own experience. At that time, I did it from the IBM research institute to Yahoo. At that time, the open source software basically saved us. Our operating system was Linux and FreeBSD, and the database MySQL. We changed these codes as we wanted., Whatever you want.The key for current engineers is that you have more open interfaces, more open source data, pre-trained models, and more software code in the cloud.This will take some time and process.But lowering this threshold will have a huge impact on the development of China’s industry and the prosperity of the innovation ecosystem.
Regarding “cutting from a low-end market where giants are reluctant to take into account”, I think this is where entrepreneurs will always have a chance, because good companies (such as a big giant) have relatively high requirements. If a market comes to itSpeaking of only hundreds of millions of income, the opportunity cost is too high for it.For example, we used to be in Microsoft, in any new field, we consider whether to cut in to see whether there is a gross profit of 2 billion US dollars.Mr. Ballmer will insist that if this entry does not bring in a gross profit of $2 billion, then it will not be done because the opportunity cost is too high. Therefore, the entrepreneur’s strategic positioning will never start from the low end.Cut in place.
In addition, there are plenty of opportunities for entrepreneurs to change the pattern and paradigm of innovation.Any good company, because it does well, has its very effective way of doing things, but this way of doing things is optimized for the original paradigm.Once the pattern and paradigm of innovation change, there will be more opportunities for entrepreneurs, because startups are small and act quickly.In any era, including artificial intelligence, the original big companies do have opportunities, but entrepreneurs will always have opportunities, because it is structured.As long as entrepreneurs pay attention and continue to work hard, there will be more and more good opportunities.
Q5: It is said that you take a rest at 11 o’clock every night and get up and run at 4 o’clock in the morning. Is this kind of highly self-disciplined work and rest true?What kind of faith supports you?How to continuously iterate cognition and ability like you?
@陆奇博士: First of all thanks to this classmate for asking questions, I think what I do is not important, the core is that everyone finds your most effective working method.Every physical energy, posture, and physical state is actually different, and they are not the same. Never learn another person, and only you know what kind of working rhythm and working environment your physical state is suitable for.
Most importantly, I suggest that you should control two points so that you can run fast and far.Everyone can do a short-term sprint, but entrepreneurship is a fast marathon, it is not a 100-meter sprint.The ability to sprint, such as driving the night car for a week, these can be done occasionally, and the body must not be overdrawn for a long time.So what you must find is a speed that allows you to continue to run fast, and then you are stable at this speed, you can work overtime and overtime when you need to accelerate, but once you have passed, return to what you can maintain immediatelyspeed.As for how to manage rest time, work and rest, and exercise, I think everyone should find a way to do it for a long time.
Regarding improving your ability to recognize and update iterations, my suggestion is that in a good entrepreneurial environment, or in a general corporate working environment, you want to go far and fast,I just talked about some physical methods.In addition, I think there is a place where you can not overdraft, is the time for reading, studying and communicating.I would recommend that you spend at least five hours a week, one hour a day reading books, reading magazines and thinking.If you are really busy, it is OK to not read a week, but if you have not read for a long time, I think this is an overdraft in knowledge and cognitive iteration.Therefore, you should also maintain such a rhythm. You are constantly thinking, absorbing new knowledge, and constantly communicating with first-class people. Through this method, you can occasionally be busy and temporarily put aside this matter, but once you are busyAfter that, you have to return to such a normal state.In this way, you can have the nutrients of new knowledge, as well as more communication and interaction, to help you continuously and systematically improve and iterate your cognitive ability.
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