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Editor’s note: This article is from the micro-channel public number “Finance Graffiti” (ID: caijingtuya), Author: Corporate intelligence experts, researchers: Zero, 36 krypton release authorized.On March 13th, considering that Delaware did not recommend the gathering of personnel since the state of emergency on the 12th, the trial of Elon Musk originally scheduled for the 16th was postponed.This is a complaint about improper valuation of a $ 2.6 billion acquisition in 2016, when Tesla acquired solar city Solarcity, a transaction accused by shareholders of sacrificing Tesla’s interests and letting MuskPersonal benefit.The accusation mainly focused on two points. One was that Solarcity was on the verge of bankruptcy, but received a premium acquisition proposal from Tesla. The founder of the company was Musk’s cousin.Musk and other directors who also hold Solarcity shares benefit; Second, Solarcity has been madly burning funds belonging to Tesla since the transaction, but business income has been declining, and it has to rely on layoffs and closing some facilities to maintain operations.It runs counter to Musk’s claims that it will soon bring a huge increase in value.The accusation hopes that Musk will hand over the 2.2 million shares he acquired through the transaction, which are equivalent to approximately $ 1.2 billion.Elon Musk’s uninhibited style was loved by his fans, and his ridicule of Wall Street analysts was brought to the court. A person familiar with the Delaware Equity Court told me that the deputy chairing the trialJustice Joseph Slights is a rigorous, unscrupulous judge, and Musk’s performance may eventually lead to unsatisfactory results.Elon Musk talked about solar energy at the Manhattan Energy Summit (Source: Internet) I have previously analyzed the overall idea of ​​Tesla’s solar energy: Foreseeing US stocks | Tesla: The big business behind home energy, weIt is still believed that the direction of new energy is not wrong, what may be wrong is the status quo of cash that cannot support the vision.We review Tesla’s fourth quarter earnings report again, which guided 2020 shipments to “easily exceed” 500,000 vehicles.This means that each quarter of the new fiscal year needs to reach 125,000 vehicles.From a digital point of view, such a speed is certainly feasible, but in the first quarter, the two super factories in the United States and China could produce close to 100,000 vehicles.So far, Tesla has not changed its guidance figures, so what exactly can Tesla’s output be affected by the epidemic, I have conducted surveys with the departments responsible for the production lines of the two super factories near Tesla.It was found that Tesla’s shipments in the first quarter were as follows: Source: Graffiti Research Institute This number will be revised downward as the epidemic situation is gradually getting worse in the region. I and several follow-up studies Tesla sent to EuropeWall Street analysts who have registered data on cargo ships, US states and countries have exchanged many times. In the end, we believe that Tesla’s first quarter delivery volume fluctuated between 60,000-70,000.Such “anchor bias” is mainly due to the epidemic prevention and control in Europe and the United States. The factories in Norway, the Netherlands and Spain have been completely closed, and the latest news on Monday Tesla closed most of the factories in the United States, leaving onlyLower Nevada’s superfactory is still operating.In Europe, the main reason for Q1 ’s expected decline is not only affected by coronavirus. Combined with my previous research: Graffiti Thinking | Homemade Battery: Volkswagen New Energy Vehicle is mentioned in the key competitiveness of Tesla in the next stage.The European layout, Tesla’s competition in Europe is gradually being squeezed out by German cars.Even Tesla’s original European base, Norway, after extracting data from Norway, found that Tesla’s share is gradually decreasing.Isolate Norwegian data from European new energy vehicle shipments (Source: Accenture Consulting, Norwegian National Statistics, Graffiti Research Institute) Chinese electric vehicles have not squeezed out Tesla, and the United States cannot basically interfere with TeslaMarket position, competition mainly comes from Europe.However, with the imminent federal income tax credit policy in the United States, a large amount of demand in the fourth quarter was released ahead of time, again suppressing the first quarter.The lower shipments directly affected the cash flow in the first quarter.Judging from the Tesla 8-k file on Thursday, several important conclusions are: the cash balance at the end of the fourth quarter of 19 billion US dollars, recently completed a 2.3 billion US dollars financing, and the company still has 30The available credit line of 100 million US dollars is enough to support the uncertainty of this period.The amount of $ 11.6 billion on this “paper” appears to be huge, and I chose to take a closer look at Tesla’s cash position by analyzing the various parts.The first is the $ 6.3 billion balance in 8-k. Comparing the detailed table in 10-k, about 1.3 billion of which is held by Tesla’s foreign subsidiaries. The process of cash repatriation is usually more difficult.Add that to the $ 106 million in year-end cash in VIEs banks, and Tesla’s cash balance can be corrected to $ 4.9 billion.Second, more than half of the US $ 3 billion credit line is provided by Chinese institutions. These financings are clearly limited to construction and working capital in China and cannot be remitted to the United States.In addition, there is a 1 billion storage line lease guarantee. This part is controversial and we have temporarily included it in the liquidity analysis.Then in the end we can get about Tesla liquidity of about 8.2 billion US dollars.Next, considering that no company can make cash balance zero, according to Tesla’s volume, it needs at least $ 2 billion to support, then the actual liquidity needs to be compressed again to $ 6.2 billion.$ 6.2 billion is not much, although it is almost half the number in the guidance.So whether the liquidity of this fund is sufficient depends on the speed of Tesla’s burning money.First of all, lower delivery volume means that cash costs may exceed transaction revenue. At the same time, we know that Tesla’s accounts payable at the end of the fourth quarter was $ 3.77 billion. The decrease in delivery volume also means that Tesla needs to repayWith more trade credit, the A / P balance may shrink to $ 2.5 billion.This is only the first quarter. As far as the current situation in the United States is concerned, the epidemic situation is still in the rising stage of the curve, so it is impossible to rule out the possibility that the closure of these factories will continue to the second quarter. Maybe this is what is called in 8-KWhat does “spend a long time” mean?Although burning money for two consecutive quarters seems to affect the life and death crisis, for Tesla, such “life or death” moments have been staged many times.However, the next time Tesla needs funding, its issue price may no longer be as high as $ 767, and the number is likely to be cut.I don’t know how fast SpaceX burns money, but from the reports of some American media, it is not difficult to guess that it is a “bottom hole.”Going back to the trial we mentioned at the beginning, we do n’t know the time of the trial again. This date may have to wait until the Delaware epidemic is under effective control.Tesla is a hit, both on stock prices and Musk personally.Creating a brand, cutting-edge innovation, and pursuing greatness are all parts that Elon Musk deserves to admire, but a company cannot rely solely on these to operate. The realization of ideals still depends on reality..

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