Editor’s note: This article is from the micro-channel public number “blackboard insight” (ID: heibandongcha), Author: Mind encourage division No. 2, 36 krypton release authorized.The first quarter of 2020 is nearing completion. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival and epidemic, the number of investment and financing events in the education industry is not optimistic.In the “2019 Education Industry Financing Trend Report, Where Did the Money in the Venture Capital Circle Go?”In the article, we conclude that, looking back at 2019, the number of investment events in the education industry has dramatically decreased in the context of the cold winter capital. From the perspective of financing rounds, the decline in financing in the early stages is the highest, and the number of rounds of financing in the middle and late stages is partiallyLess affected.The field of STEAM is still receiving attention, while traditional K12 education has encountered financing “Waterloo”.Also as the country continues to promote the development of quality education content in the field of science and art, the market for expanding content education after class is on a hot trend, and this trend may continue in 2020.Despite the unfavorable start of the year 2020, we still see news of several domestic and foreign children’s programming projects financing. Facing the current difficult industry situation, how can the entire children’s programming industry solve the current problems?What do investors and entrepreneurs think of children’s programming in 2020?01 Coexistence of pressure and opportunity, head effects appear As the basic industry for social construction, education has always been deeply affected by policy adjustments.Provinces with programming information technology support policies will also have significantly faster information technology development than other provinces and cities.The reason why children’s programming can be valued in today’s education industry is inseparable from policy support.Since the Ministry of Education issued the “Outline of the National Medium- and Long-term Education Reform and Development Plan (2010-2020)”, corresponding policies have been issued almost every year to support and guide the development of children’s programming.It is not difficult to see from the policy that today’s artificial intelligence development has an increasing demand for digital talents, and the current teaching model is difficult to meet the requirements of the times in the development of high-tech industries and talent training.New technologies and new talents are out of touch with the current society as soon as they leave college.With the current technological trends and adjustment of industrial institutions, it is imperative to cultivate new IT talents.As the post-80s and post-90s people enter the stage of marriage and childbearing, the two generations have become an important driving force for children’s consumption. The strong consumption willingness and higher education of the new generation of mothers have made them more educated in children.For the attention.Children’s consumption is also escalating, and the increase in disposable income has made it possible for new-generation parents to afford high-quality, high-quality products.In addition, the internationalization of the parenting concept of the new generation of parents is easier to accept new things, which is also a benefit for the development of children’s programming.Among the 210 children’s programming companies with blackboard insights statistics, 139 have no disclosure of financing records. Among the 70 companies that have been disclosed, projects have reached the B and C stages, and the companies in each financing stageThe number has gradually opened the gap.From the perspective of the Matthew effect, there are already some projects running out in this industry. The effect of the head company is obvious. The latter companies (especially those without any disclosure of financing records) cannot polish their business models.If stable cash flow is used to support it, it will be difficult to get money, which will also cause the company to lay huge hidden dangers in the subsequent operation stages.Especially in the face of the uncertainty brought by the epidemic, the entire industry is actively self-helping, and even in the process of transformation, it will still face great risks. This is not only a change in the way of online and offline teaching, but alsoIncluding a series of changes in teachers’ teaching habits, parental user identity and so on.In the short term, the industry is facing great challenges, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. 2020 may be a decisive year for children’s programming track companies.02 Looking at children’s programming from a capital perspective In order to understand more fully how the capital market views children’s programming during the epidemic, and what impact it will have on the industry in the future, we have conducted in-depth communication with several investors:For a long time, as long as the word “programming” is included in the BP title, the investor will return to “don’t watch” in a second—Li Qingfang, director of investment and investment at Zhongguancun Education, although the programming of children relies on robot training and other forms for several years, butPersonally, I think that the development of the programming track has really started since the “New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan” issued by the State Council in July 2017 released the national education signal for programming.Capital was crazy in 2017 and 2018. In the second half of 2017 and the first half of 2018 alone, the capital invested by 10 of the programming companies reached 1 billion US dollars.Of course, capital has promoted / affected the rapid development of programming in the past period of time, but the real benign development of programming still has a long way to go. At present, there are still three temporarily unsolvable problems in the field of programming-customer acquisition costs.High, no standards for evaluation, and serious homogenization of courses.In the final analysis, the ultimate test and need for the development of a programming company or programming industry is the company’s ability to make blood and sustain its profitability.The programming industry for children has been in the process of shuffling in recent years.From mid-2018 to 2019, many reasons such as “capital help” and “seemingly running out of the head brand” have led many investors to “run when they smell programming”. For a long time, as long as the “BPThe word “programming” means that investors return in seconds and “don’t look”, especially early investments.But after the development in 2019 and some changes in the programming industry during the 2020 epidemic, entrepreneurs and investors can look at the industry more rationally; in 2020, the reshuffle of the children’s programming industry will continue.During the epidemic, education or online education seems to have received a lot of benefits, but it cannot be generalized.The new coronavirus is a disaster for everyone and all businesses. The so-called online education “good” is nothing but “a short-term swarm of users”, on the supply chain side, on the effect side, on teachers, equipment, Platform, etc., there is still a long way to go.Of course, it is undeniable that the epidemic has played a certain role in promoting the rapid development of online education, but for the long-term and stable development of online education, it is still necessary to follow the most basic judgment standards and industry development, such as “rigid demand, effect, stability”law.Of course, the education industry itself is “counter-cyclical”, so compared to other industries, during the epidemic, the overall impact on education was relatively small.I personally believe that the capital market is still relatively rational. It will not focus on some industries / enterprises because of the short-term growth of certain companies / industries, and it will not abandon an industry or completely underestimate it because of the short-term impact of a disaster..Entrepreneurship itself is a marathon with various hurdles, and the epidemic is only one step.The need for children’s programming, especially online large classes, was stimulated more during the epidemic.On the one hand, programming that combines offline with robots or makers has to turn to online; on the other hand, one-to-one on-line results in insufficient teacher force and has to seek a better “online one-to-many”Solution; so during the epidemic, it will promote the online big class of children programming.Of course, short-term retaliatory rebound after the epidemic is not ruled out.After that, I believe that children’s programming will, like many educational fields, move toward a rational development trend of a better blood-making profit model such as the “combination of online and offline” model.Good companies with a proven business model will continue to run out of good companies, eliminate bad currency, and the entire industry will return to a state of turbulence and upsurge .– Zhang Beni, a partner of Qingliu Capital Operations, has indeed done programming with children in the past one or two years.It is a hot new track, it is relatively easy to be favored by the capital side, and even overheated, so there will be thousands of companies of different sizes and strengths. At present, with the national policy support for programming education,And the gap in the demand for artificial intelligence talents in China is still expanding, which has led to a growing consumer spending on programming education as a consumer group such as parents and students, so we judge that 2020 or even a long period of time, children ’s programmingThe survival status of the industry will still be good.But with the long-term development, we hope that one thing that is bound to happen is that the children’s programming industry will develop after a period of time, and after the market slowly calms down, it will run out of business models to be able to verify the excellent quality of sustained and healthy development.Companies, eliminating a lot of bad coins, the entire industry will return to a state of disorder.At present, due to the lack of a complete system content and sufficient teacher supply in the downstream of the domestic industry chain, it is difficult to scale and ensure the quality of teaching, high user acquisition costs, short life cycles, poor retention, and fierce competition in offline channel wars, and gradually in the Red Sea; andFewer players focused upstream on tool development.In 2020, the emergence of this epidemic is a crisis for many companies. Of course, there is a large influx of traffic in the online education industry in this epidemic, but it is also a test and a process of sandstorming..As a new track in online education, the children’s programming industry will enter the perspective of more consumers due to the epidemic, but whether the company is prepared for the influx of a large amount of traffic and whether it can continue to produce it.The higher educational value of users may be verified in this epidemic. Good good horses must be those who have spent a lot of time and made sufficient preparations in advance, can develop healthily in the long run, and can continue to bring high value and excellent experience to users.Companies that, on the other hand, are not prepared, or companies that are currently not so healthy will also expose problems and then gradually exit the stage.During the epidemic, the outbreak of traffic has also brought a huge technical test to most of its underlying technology architecture. An investor who did not want to be named suffered an explosive growth in the field of online education due to the epidemic, which mainly benefited two categories.Educational project.One is a company that is engaged in online education itself, including the good future of the head, New Oriental, VIPKID, etc .; the other is a company engaged in education informatization. Such companies provide the ability to build online platforms for offline education institutions.During the entire epidemic period, especially during the Spring Festival, many companies began to receive new orders frantically, but in fact, the burst of traffic in this process also brought a huge technical test to most of the underlying technology architecture.From the user group, the outbreak has allowed online education institutions to better penetrate the sinking market, but having users does not mean that users can be retained, so for most investors, whether they are looking at online education companies orLooking at the projects of education informatization, it is necessary to look at the overall survival and transformation of the epidemic.The impact on the field of children’s programming should actually also be viewed from the perspective of the project form. It still has a relatively large impact on offline programming education institutions. Most offline education institutions have to respond accordingly during the transition process.The cost of informatization, and online courses currently seem to be discounted, so even if you complete the offline to online work and there are no customer losses in the middle, it will still have a large impact.But for educational institutions that were originally online, the overall situation is relatively good.03 From the business model battle to the product matrix battle, kindergarten, elementary school, and middle school students are the core target users of programming education. According to statistics from the Ministry of Education, in 2015, the number of people in these three groups was about 183 million.According to the “2017-2023 China Children’s Programming Market Analysis and Forecasting Research Report”, the current programming penetration rate of children in mainland China is 0.96%, and it is estimated that each person will spend 6,000 yuan per year in programming training.Ten billion or so.And with each 1% increase in penetration, the overall market size is expected to expand by 10 billion.Facing the scale of the future development of the track, the creator of the programming cat Li Tianchi also expressed his thoughts: “In the past few years, children’s programming has become more and more favorable in terms of policies and the business model has become increasingly clear. Last year, there were some repeated voices in the industry.In fact, it is not the industry that changes, but the number of participants. From a few companies in 15-16 years, it peaked in 18 years and dropped in 19 years. It is a curve that rises first and then falls. This year’s market has shown obvious resources.The Matthew effect gathered to the head. In 2020, the policy will be further favorable. In the past two months alone, Henan, Hebei, and Sichuan have issued relevant documents for the popularization of programming education. The business model is verified by K12Various mature and efficient models can be reproduced in children’s programming: offline small classes, online large classes, online small classes, etc. Under homogeneous competition, there is no way to generate profits. So my judgment is,1. K12’s online large class market competition continues this year, and the cost of online customer acquisition continues to rise after the epidemic. (The cost of special reasons fell briefly during the epidemic) 2. Children’s programming machineThe competition of the head institutions will switch from a business model battle to a product matrix battle (all effective business models will involve each other). The competition is the ability of the team and the ability of the organization. “He believes that the variables for children’s programming this year are mainly twoThere are two places: first, whether it can be connected inside and outside the school, and whether it can be integrated online and offline, which will determine whether the efficiency of children’s programming agencies can be ten times higher than the industry average.At the same time, the artificial intelligence education procurement projects of public schools will have great opportunities this year.During the epidemic, how will the capital market view the education market and what impact will it have on children’s programming?Li Tianchi said: “This epidemic has brought suffering to our country and the people, and has caused a great blow to the economy. Under the fact that there is no way to change, the impact of the epidemic on overall quality education is analyzed. The core is the alignment.Popularization and embrace on the Internet. Onlineization is the mega trend, and offline cannot be separated. In the future, OMO (online merge offline) online and offline integration is the general direction. The epidemic unexpectedly completed the onlineization of 200 million primary and secondary school students.The impact of the epidemic on online education will be limited after the epidemic situation. More challenges will lie in organizational capabilities and remote assistance. Office capacity in the epidemic situationThe challenges to the offline programming and robotics education industries are very big. In the final analysis, no matter what form of education, the purpose of education is for the future of children, and how to make different education forms fully take advantage of their future in the future, so as to perfectly integrateGenerating greater utility and energy for social welfare will be an issue that education practitioners will focus on in the future. “At this stage, whether it is children’s programming orHis field of education, the sense of good service to existing users, is the current top priority.Li Tianchi said at the end. Concluding remarks The competition for children’s programming has gradually entered a stage of enthusiasm. Before the blackboard insight, the analysis report on the children’s programming track had pointed out that if the companies on the track cannot polish their business models,If there is no stable cash flow to support it, it will be difficult to get money and even die in the next economic downturn cycle. But we did not expect this cycle to come so suddenly. The epidemic situation for online education institutionsAt the same time as the impact, we should also see that more and more standardized requirements will promote the development of the entire industry. The policy is becoming stricter, and each track will be gradually standardized and systematic. The development of children’s programming is still in the lead of capital today.The state and industry are developing in the direction of bigger, better, and more comprehensive. To develop on the track for a long time, intensive cultivation, and cultivation of internal skills are the main trends. External high-quality resources can promote the positive development of education companies, but user recognitionIt is the core guarantee of sustainable development. Technological changes have led to the systematization and institutionalization of the education industry.Bring the body to expand the volume, but also brings better services and results, as well as the company’s operations standardization, in turn, give consumers peace of mind and a more secure ..
Children’s Programming 2020: From Business Model Controversy to Product Matrix Controversy
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