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Editor’s note: This article is from the micro-channel public number “understand understand notes” (ID: dongdong_note), Author: Left Bank Editor: Qin Yan, 36 krypton release authorized.A few days ago, the MWC 2020 officially announced the cancellation of the conference, which also became the first “interruption” in the history of the 33-year MWC exhibition. At the same time, major mobile phone brands may open an “online conference” or announce a readjustment of the product release plan;Andy Rubin, known as the father of Android, officially announced that he would shut down his smart phone company Essential … The beginning of 2020 seems full of uncertainty for global mobile phone companies.Aggressive, drooling, attacking the high-end, attacking the entire line or even leaving the market bleakly, will be the signs of being in the global mobile phone market for some time to come.Accelerating the elimination of small players from the fluctuation of large players is obviously a force for change in an era. The popularity of 5G communication technology is undoubtedly the most significant opportunity and challenge for the smartphone industry in the past decade.Especially under the Matthew effect, those small and medium-sized enterprises that are hovering on the edge of the life and death line hope to obtain the maximum benefits in this change.However, the heavyweights who have left the field have already appeared.”In addition to the difficulty of delivering the new Project GEM plan, software support for Essential PH-1, the only smartphone under Essentials, will also end.” This is Andy Rubin’s latest message in a blog post.In addition to announcing the closure of its smartphone company Essential, Andy Rubin will also end software updates for the Essential PH-1.At this critical time, Essential, the father of Android, suddenly chose to leave, which seems to indicate that 2020 will be even more unfriendly for those weaker smartphone companies.Without enough players, it is difficult to enter the next round of competition.Of course, the exit of each mobile phone company has its own reasons.Since its establishment in 2015, Essential has only launched the Essential Phone PH-1.This product has received praise from the outside world due to its relatively geeky design, but also due to the difficulty of mass production due to this design, and finally began to ship 4 months after its release.For the smartphone industry, which is rapidly iterating, a four-month bounce also indirectly announced its “death penalty.”Looking back to Essential today, it may only be one of many failure cases, because there are so many brands in the smartphone market.Not long ago, the classic brand BlackBerry said goodbye to the mobile phone market. It also proves that in today’s market environment, the market space of niche brands is becoming increasingly narrow.The emergence of this epidemic has undoubtedly exacerbated the speed of those niche brands from a certain level.Whether it is Essential or BlackBerry, either it is proposed to build the world’s best AI smartphone, or it is a security card that focuses on the field of smartphones, but they all ignore the experience that users care about most.Such local innovation is difficult to survive under the pressure of industry giants.In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the two ends of the sales and supply chain are under pressure, and for more fragile small and medium brands, it is likely to be the last straw that has crushed camels.As small players accelerate their exits, the head players, who account for the majority of the industry’s market share, are also full of various uncertainties.2020 is the year when these big players’ 5G games really start, but from the present point of view, the beginning of everything is not so smooth.For digital products such as smart phones, many people may think that online channels are the mainstream.But the reality is that until today, offline channels still have absolute advantages.According to the latest data from GFK, as of the third quarter of 2019, the proportion of mobile phone offline channels still exceeds 70%.The most direct impact of the epidemic situation is that sales of mobile phone offline channels are blocked.In addition to sales, the suspension of the supply chain is also the hardest hit area for the entire industry.In an interview after the launch conference of Xiaomi 10 a few days ago, Lei Jun admitted that the supply in the next week or two will be relatively tight.It should be known that this is Xiaomi, which has a strong voice in the current supply chain system. According to Tencent Technology, Xiaomi Mi 10 is assembled by Foxconn’s factory in Langfang, and its entire factory’s production capacity is almost completely covered by Xiaomi.The difficulty of the supply chain is not only a problem encountered by Xiaomi, but also a dilemma for the entire mobile phone industry.It is foreseeable that the stock of new machines released by major brands in the recent period will not be sufficient.In addition, market changes and the cancellation of MWC will also disrupt the rhythm of new product releases by many companies.And this effect is by no means so simple as changing the time of the conference.”Any company’s product release plan will be planned long in advance, especially for some important models of the year.” Relevant communication industry experts said to understand the note, “Each mobile phone company needs to release a new machine withThe supply chain and sales channels are well coordinated. Once adjustments occur, companies need to coordinate with multiple parties and then re-plan the release rhythm. The cost is very high. “It can be predicted that the cancellation of MWC has disruptedThe release plans of many major mobile phone manufacturers will also affect the listing and trading of new products by thousands of participating companies worldwide (including upstream and downstream companies in the mobile phone and communications industries).For some companies, this may mean hosting their own small launch event, or simply issuing a press release to release the latest electronics.Many companies may delay their new product launches.In the end, we may have to wait longer before we can hear some new product listing information.Futuresource Consulting analyst Stephen Mills also pointed out: “If the current state of instability is not resolved as soon as possible, the smartphone industry may be delayed until 2021 to resume growth.” Enforcement and change of course under special periods are due to force majeureThe market situation is constantly changing, and mobile phone companies in the tide of change are naturally looking for better responses.As Lei Jun said at the press conference recently, “Life can be affected by the epidemic, but we must not be defeated by the epidemic.” From the two heavyweight conferences already held in the industry, we can clearly see Samsung and XiaomiDetermination, you can also feel the tremendous pressure on the company behind the new strategy.The first is Samsung. The “hard core” is the most direct reaction from the outside world to the recent release of Samsung’s new products.It is no exaggeration to say that the launch of the S20 series can satisfy almost all your imagination of the current smart phone.In order to reflect the technical strength, the live broadcast equipment of the whole conference is also all new machines of the S20 series.Of course, in addition to the new flagship of the S series, Samsung is also constantly trying on the folding screen, especially the Galaxy Z Flip.After last year’s Galaxy Fold was interrupted for some reason, Samsung has not become cautious on the folding screen, it is still the most radical member in the industry.The Galaxy Z Flip uses a vertical folding scheme similar to the previous Motorola RAZR. The difference is that the Galaxy Z Flip uses a real glass screen instead of the plastic film used in previous folding screen models.An unavoidable problem is that the current stimulus for folding screens to users may not be as great as expected.The immature hinge technology, obvious creases, more fragile body and high price are still persuading those who are watching.Perhaps, it is too early for us to judge whether the folding screen can be successful in the future. We only hope that with the advancement of technology, folding screen products can become more durable and affordable.The reality is that Samsung must also understand that the current folding screen is impossible to become the main force of shipment, it just needs accumulation in this regard.”For industry giants like Samsung, it will not give up any possibility in the future, especially it has a full industry chain that runs through the upstream and downstream.” Relevant communication industry experts said to understand the notes, facing Apple,Huawei and other competitors are increasingly fierce offensive, and Samsung must maintain the pace of innovation. “Even if Samsung’s current input and output on folding screen products are completely disproportionate, it will continue to invest to ensure its technological leadership.” SamsungXiaomi is trying to “self-upgrade” while trying to stabilize its global top spot.Lei Jun’s statement on this is that “high-end mobile phones are the market that Xiaomi has been eager to impact for the past ten years.” Obviously, Xiaomi Mi 10 is the first initiative of the Xiaomi brand to impact the high-end market.At that time, the attempt to raise the Note and MIX series can be regarded as establishing a new brand and a new product series that is positioned higher than the Xiaomi brand, but it is a pity that it is not a good idea.After officially operating Redmi at the beginning of last year, it has become necessary to enhance the market positioning of the Xiaomi brand and impact the high-end market.Now a year has passed, Xiaomi Mi 10 is the first high-end product that Lei Jun has come up with.Of course, the strategy of impacting the high-end market is not a problem, but at the time of the outbreak of 5G applications, such a leapfrog upgrade measure of Xiaomi is also facing huge challenges.Throughout the past generations of Xiaomi products, in addition to the MIX Alpha that is constantly turning in the glass display cabinets of Xiaomi House in various cities, few products have reached the starting price of 3,999 yuan.Such a pricing strategy directly pulls the brand positioning into a position parallel to Huawei. We must know that the domestic launch price of Huawei P30 series last year was also 3998 yuan.This is not only a challenge for the Xiaomi brand, but also a challenge for the Xiaomi user group.Although Xiaomi provides intimate interest-free services for 12 periods (JD.com’s highest 24 interest-free period), it is still unknown whether users can accept Xiaomi mobile phones starting at 4,000 yuan.From the perspective of Xiaomi 10’s products, Xiaomi is still insisting on the dominant idea of ​​taking hardware as the king.Some analysts also said after the press conference: This time Xiaomi 10 can be said to be the ultimate in the word “stacking”. If the hardware is used as a horizontal comparison, Xiaomi 10 sold from 3999 yuan will be put into today’s mobile phones.Not very expensive in the market.However, under a series of absolutely powerful but cold hardware parameters, whether Xiaomi 10 can be favored by users in the mass market really has to wait for market verification.Risks and opportunities always coexist, and Xiaomi’s upside is especially inevitable, especially in the current situation where the offline market is still an important position for new retail. In order to get more offline channel support, Xiaomi must also provide enough high-endAnd high-priced products come.In this regard, relevant communication industry experts also pointed out: “Xiaomi is a mobile phone company that started online. Lei Jun’s original Internet thinking was to save all intermediate costs and achieve direct access to users. This also reduced costs and indirectly led to onlineThe interest in Xiaomi products is very low. “The reason for this is very simple, that is, selling Xiaomi makes no money.”The offline channel is the most profit-seeking, but Xiaomi’s pricing strategy determines that it cannot give sufficient profit to the offline channel. There are only two ways to solve this problem. One is to increase the price of the product, and the other is to build more Xiaomi.Offline direct sales channels such as home. At present, these two things are happening simultaneously in Xiaomi. “The aforementioned experts emphasized.The establishment of offline direct-operated stores can be promoted with funds, but to increase the price of products requires the dual support of product power and brand power.Obviously, hitting the high end is a long process.As early as 2015 when Xiaomi started running the Note product line, it continued to sprint high-end. Compared with the carefulness of the previous Note series and MIX series, Xiaomi’s sprint this time undoubtedly highlights the radicalness and determination.[Conclusion] The epidemic situation will always pass, and the prosperity will always come.In the near future, what will happen to the table in the 5G era?Which small players will leave, and which big players will show hand?If it is said that a piece of dust in the era of 5G transformation is a huge stone falling on the heads of every enterprise, then the chain reaction to the mobile phone industry in this particular period is indeed too much unexpected and unexpected.But in the face of change, the only thing players can do on the field is to embrace change. Change means both elimination and rebirth..

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