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Editor’s note: This article comes from the WeChat public account “Multi-whale” (ID: DJEDUINNO). 36 氪 Authorized release of what a startup company should do in the face of a similar black swan incident. It mainly focuses on four aspects: recognitionThe general situation, see the big market, do the right thing, the mind is the teacher.01 Recognizing the general situation, everyone is more worried about whether the epidemic will cause any problems, but in the venture capital circle, from the business level and the corporate level, we think this is just an episode, don’t worry about this epidemic will bring someDisastrous thing.After experiencing SARS, we know that China ’s entire economic aggregate and market value have continued to rise, so the theme I shared is called sustainable betting on China in the next ten years. This trend has never changed.Will stop the whole of China.Last year has been a very sad year. Economic and trade frictions, GDP breaking six, birth rate decline, and traffic dividends also have problems. As Wang Xing said, 2019 may be the worst year in the past ten years, and it may be the next ten years.The best year of the year.The beginning of 2020 is like this. Everyone may have a pessimistic mood, but I don’t think it is necessary. There are three directions: first, the rise of post-90s and post-00s.There are probably more than 200 million people in the post-90s and post-00s generation. These children have become the most mainstream consumer. 2) The rise of young people in towns and small towns with more than 3 billion people. You can also see a lot of situations.3) The aging market.There is a very big bonus after the new 60s.New infrastructure, AI, cloud, big data and blockchain, these parts are just beginning; Second, China ’s GDP this year exceeded 100 trillion, the first industry is about 40 trillion, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, New materials and other hard technology opportunities have only begun; third, reduce costs and increase efficiency.Because many people are unable to go to work in this outbreak, everyone may work online through nails, and the toB market is beginning to usher in spring. The US toB market size is about 1 trillion, but China’s toB market is currently less than 3,000Billion, with a penetration rate of less than 1%. This epidemic made everyone suddenly realize that collaborative office is very important, and it is also important to improve organizational efficiency.Finally, the size of China ’s consumer market reached 6 trillion last year, while the US consumer market was about $ 5.6 trillion. China has become the world ’s largest consumer market.After SARS, the problem of this part of social consumer goods was very serious, but in the third quarter of that year, a retaliatory rebound began.From the perspective of changes in GDP, the same trend.Speaking of this new crown epidemic, we often say that no a snowflake is innocent during an avalanche. The impact of this epidemic must be far-reaching and widespread, but this impact must be short-lived and we must have confidence in the future.02 In the past, many people in the big city said that SARS in 2003 catalyzed China’s e-commerce, and this epidemic made the real economy almost completely wiped out. Is it going to be dematerialized?However, the development of each industry is not caused by special events, but by the upgrade of the entire ecology. Only after the industrial ecology is upgraded will it affect micro-enterprises.Recognize the nature of business.Therefore, although Taobao was born from SARS, Chinese e-commerce took off in 2009 and Double Eleven started in 2009. We need to know, but we don’t need to panic.The situation we face today is also the same. The blind spots of entrepreneurs and investors are always surprisingly consistent. Everyone thinks that they cannot survive without transformation and online, but this is not the case.We see two things. One is that Hema Xian ’s birthday order volume has increased by 500%. Now the fresh food distribution industry is very hot; but on the other hand, offline food Xibei ’s cash flow can only last for three months.The essence of the problem is that unexpected events put everyone at home, so the home economy will definitely develop.Everyone said that the winner of this year is online education, short videos and games, video website members and game recharge reached the peak, and fresh e-commerce companies such as Ding Dong to buy food, orders could not be received.But the core problem is that people can’t go out, they can only stay at home.But do we have to look at emergencies that have changed the nature of business?Take the game, for the past two years, the game has actually been declining, but due to the recent increase in the number of users and payment, the game industry has picked up, but its essence has not changed.The same is true of the education industry.Many organizations are thinking about turning their business online, but how do they go online for sports and swimming?These are all things we need to think about, not blind follow.From a micro level, there are three basic requirements for changes in ecological trends: 1) Changes in infrastructure.Infrastructure required for industry or business development, such as 5G, chips.In this wave of education development, everyone will feel that the combination of mobile Internet and education is a trend, especially live broadcast.However, the birth of live broadcast is not due to this epidemic, but it has been developed for a year or two. At present, the penetration rate of online live broadcast education is about 7%. At this special stage, the penetration of green may increase to 25%, butNormally, the penetration rate of live broadcast will return to about 10%, and it will not increase to more than 20% because of the Black Swan incident.Because the current live broadcast bandwidth and CDN are not ready, long-term arduous infrastructure construction is required.2) Changes in consumers themselves.Has the consumer population changed?From post-85s consumers to post-90s and even post-00s consumers.Second, whether the consumer’s scene has changed. For example, Beijing SKP mall has set a lot of experience consumption scenes. Last year’s sales exceeded 20 billion yuan.Third, whether consumers’ ability to pay and means of payment have changed.Take the elderly market as an example. Why did the old market fail in the past? Most of the consumers in the past were born 55 years ago. They live a simple life. Many people have the ability to pay but have no willingness to pay., And unwilling to customize a 88-day trip around the world.But this is not the case with the new 60s, which has brought about micro changes in the industry.3) Changes in industrial chain resonance.Whether cost structures, transactions and deliveries have changed.For example, Haidilao, a company with a market value of 100 billion yuan, Haidilao’s own central kitchen’s supply chain system is changing. The last five years have been the fastest changing five years in the catering industry’s supply chain system.The standardized supply of products and spices is changing.Therefore, the microcosm of the industry will only change if infrastructure, consumers, and industry chain resonances are all changing.So what entrepreneurs need to think about is how can they capture these three levels of change?There are only two ways: 1) Top-down data synchronization.It is vital to capture these three changes to enable your business to generate data, and to provide intelligent algorithms based on the data; 2) Scanning from the outside.Entrepreneurs often have to watch the changes in the industry chain.In this epidemic, favorable industries include medical and health care, online education, entertainment games, content socialization and corporate services. In particular, corporate services have been greatly developed, including some online office software.The industries that have been impacted include transportation, offline consumption, catering, offline services and logistics.But are these things important?After the epidemic ended, did these needs cease to exist?Needs still exist.The most important thing is to think about which industries are really changing.Take the example of SARS. At that time, the only benefit was Ctrip. Ctrip was listed on the NASDAQ after the SARS epidemic, and its market value is now reaching 100 billion yuan.Why was Ctrip born?From the perspective of the three foundations just mentioned, personal PCs became popular in 2003, everyone could access the Internet, and infrastructure changed. Second, the business travel market rebounded after SARS and suppressed demand broke out in June and JulyBut at that time, the hotel industry and aviation had their own information systems that could connect with Ctrip. This is the resonance of the industry chain. Third, payment methods, credit card online payments are mature.These three points made Ctrip develop rapidly after the end of SARS.It is the same back to today. What are the qualitative changes in the macro, micro and industrial chain of the entrepreneur’s business?03 Doing the right thing When something goes wrong, doing the right thing is the most important thing. Be sure to follow the rhythm.Do things urgently, keep pace, and direct forward.There are three things a startup company must do when the Black Swan happens.First of all, make a deal: 1) Anything that has nothing to do with the main business should be cut off; all the loss-making projects should be stopped; communicate with the customer frankly. At this time, no sudden changes should occur, and the customer must be stabilized.A run has occurred, but this must have been done by the partners and core executive team in person.Second, the code person.At this time the most taboo is layoffs.At that time, New Oriental had a saying, “If you don’t leave, I will not give up.” You can raise or even freeze your salary.Secondly, we need to improve transparency. Don’t let employees guess. The more open and transparent you are, the stronger your stress resistance will be.Third, adjust the structure.Set up an emergency team and direct the command; resource cooperation to share costs, such as Hema Xiansheng and Xibei, employee outsourcing, and win-win cooperation; adjust the organizational structure, integrate front-line departments into small units, all people must be customer-orientedBecause retaining customers is the capital of the resurgence.At this time we will find that many of the front-line personnel can be promoted, and a number of core backbones that appeared in New Oriental were promoted during the SARS period.The team they bring is the most core team. The entrepreneurs will find that when the Black Swan incident occurs, the so-called airborne soldiers dug out with high pay that year ran faster than anyone else.When facing real difficulties, the front line is that there are some people who really care about you.For example, the employees of fellow chickens have voluntarily asked for a pay suspension.At the time of the Black Swan incident, two things were most important.First, confidence is more important than funding.Customers, partners, shareholders, supply and employee confidence are the core strengths that can help you carry the past.The second is funding. At this time, every effort must be made to find money. The current situation is based on the assumption of six months.New Oriental’s case: At the time of SARS, New Oriental’s daily refunds reached 1 million, and the total refunds reached 90 million.New Oriental did a very important thing at that time, that is to say to all customers, if we want to refund the fee, we can refund 100%, but the learning still has to continue, we talk frankly to the customer, let the customer make a choice, orDelays, or refunds, guarantee that the rights and interests of customers are greater than the sky.20% of the users refunded the final fee, 80% of the students did not refund.Therefore, we must take the initiative to communicate, and we must consider the interests of customers.Don’t worry if the refund is announced, the customer will refund it all. In fact, this is not the case.In addition, New Oriental did several things.1) No one dismissed an employee; 2) Any customer’s refunds are available on demand; 3) Organize employees to stop classes for non-stop services; 4) Let teachers go to school to reduce costs for teachers; 5) Promote online courses and book mailBusiness; 6) raising cash through multiple channels.04 Mindset for Teachers In difficult times, no straw can save you, except yourself.After each incident, more than 60% of the companies are unable to survive. After SARS in 2003, only 35% of the training schools in Haidian District survived, but the schools that survived are living well, such as New Oriental and Global IELTS..Entrepreneurs now have to think, if this epidemic has left your business, then you should think about it, because of this epidemic, or the business is problematic, if it is not the business itself, you can carry itof.The environment in 19 years was very bad, external financing was very difficult, and the market itself was in a slump. Many front-line investment institutions had to save the companies in their portfolio first.If entrepreneurs need financing now, they should be prepared for 12 months. There may not be any new opportunities within 12 months.How can I penetrate the fog?You must learn to disassemble the problem, and you must learn to use structured thinking to think about the nature of your business and the logic of doing this business. The bottom line is the best way to make a decision, because you can only ask the essence and the only oneWhat changed?For example, the number 1 in the e-commerce industry is how fast and cost-effective it is; the number 1 in the education industry is the supply of high-quality education resources, and online education is actually just an optimization of the distribution of education resources.Many organizations are following suit to move their business online. This is actually a very bad thing. The infrastructure and teachers are not ready, resulting in a very poor customer experience and higher refund rates.Second, deliberate contact.Put yourself in a longer time dimension and put it in the industry chain to see yourself clearly and keep asking whether the core logic of this business is changing, which is the most effective.This approach allows entrepreneurs to form their own methodology, and don’t panic when facing the Black Swan incident, and find ways to solve it.It is the best way to deal with the “black swan” incident when the weather is fine.We are in an era of uncertainty. Every change in the international and domestic environment and the policy environment may be a black swan event, and the individual’s immunity is everything.The black swan is the norm for self-cultivation.The first is self-cultivation. When problems arise, organizational resilience, cultural cohesion and healthy cash flow are the first factors.In addition, to take advantage of this opportunity to think hard about the ability to bring your business and data online, because only when you have achieved online business and data, can you have the ability to find 10-fold changes.Secondly, get connected.Now all companies are in an ecosystem. All entrepreneurs have to think about who is upstream and downstream, and who are partners. Can they apply for warmth when a crisis occurs? Today’s entrepreneurs must have an open and inclusive attitude.Entrepreneurs need the courage to persevere, find a way when problems arise, and live well in order to seize future opportunities..

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