Editor’s note: This article is from “” Finance “,” Author: Xu Yang sit cross-legged, 36 krypton authorized to release “2020 Spring Festival, just to get finished this year-end awards employees think can have a good year, but the epidemic suddenly to theEveryone was caught off guard. “Yuan Dong, vice president of Chalknet said.On January 20, the news that “new crown pneumonia can be passed from person to person” came out on this day, and the CEO of Chalknet Zhang Xiaolong made the decision to “stop all offline tutoring classes and sprint online education”.Chalknet, which specializes in civil service exam training, is an online and offline vocational education institution. It has offline branches in more than 30 cities across the country.Yuan Dong introduced that the impact of the epidemic on offline business was “fatal” and almost stopped; but because of “demand still exists”, the company’s online business increased by 200% year-on-year, and the proportion of offline to online users reachedMore than 80%.Affected by the epidemic, on January 23, the Education Department of Hubei Province announced the extension of the start of the spring semester of primary and secondary schools, and then many universities in Hubei Province announced the delay of the start of school.On January 27, the Ministry of Education also issued a notice to delay the start of the spring semester of 2020.After that, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Education further requested that doing a good job in the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is the current priority task.Off-campus training institutions must stop offline training activities in accordance with local requirements, and must not start classes in advance to form student clusters to prevent epidemic spread.After offline training was “snapped down,” the chalk net of “walking on two legs” was undoubtedly lucky.On February 6, the offline educational institution “Brothers”, which had been listed on the New Third Board and was once valued at over 1 billion yuan, announced its closure.Founder Li Chao stated in a “letter to all the trainees, employees, and shareholders of Brother Brothers”: “Because of the company’s cash flow problems, the Beijing campus will stop enrolling and all employees will be demobilized.”A letter from Brothers Co., Ltd.’s trainees, employees, and shareholders. At the same time, online education has once again taken the lead.In addition to the chalk network, many future online education companies such as Good Future, New Oriental Online, and Ape Coaching, have ushered in a “double harvest” of “user volume and stock price.”In fact, just over a month ago, online education was still in the predicament of “layoffs”, “salary cuts”, “capital winter” and so on.Can the epidemic really allow online education companies to “counterattack”?Behind the development spring, are there any hidden concerns in the online education industry?The epidemic helped solve the problem of “acquiring customers” For a long time, the high cost of acquiring customers (the cost of acquiring customers) is the biggest constraint in the development of online education.Online education institutions without physical school buildings can only rely on marketing methods such as buildings, subways, and the Internet. The efficiency of customer acquisition has always been low, and the retention rate after customer acquisition is also a problem.The high cost of customer acquisition is a major factor that makes it difficult for online education companies to make a profit.But the epidemic “just happened” changed that.An anonymous person in charge of an online training institution revealed that his company mainly operates “K12” (preschool education to high school education) online training business.Previously, due to the low acceptance of online teaching methods, the company prepared a budget for 2020, hoping to promote the “online teaching methods”.”I didn’t expect that the total number of online users would double several times as soon as the epidemic came, and even this budget was saved.”The person also said: “Compared to the pre-epidemic situation, the number of people studying online courses in arts including fine arts and calligraphy has increased the most, almost tens of times.” Many online education companies are also pinpointing thisThis is a rare opportunity to get customers, and they have launched free lesson plans with “significant results”.According to Ape Coaching, the company started to broadcast free live lessons on February 3. As of February 6, the number of enrollment for Ape Coaching free live courses was more than 10 million, and the cost of a single month of technical support was about 150 million to 200 million yuan.As of January 2020, the cumulative number of users of Ape Coaching Online Education nationwide has exceeded 400 million.”As long as the epidemic situation lasts, we will broadcast it as long as possible,” said Zhang Xiaohu, the relevant person in charge of Xueersi.It affects the children’s daily learning, and gave us instructions early, so be prepared to support at any time.”On February 1st, the free course jointly launched by CCTV and Xueersi welcomed a sharp increase in the number of online viewers. The average number of real-time attendees per class exceeded 2 million. January 20 to 31, 2020During the day, the number of daily active users of Xueersi Online School and Ape Coaching App continued to accelerate. Tu / Qian Chaoting, analyst of Minsheng Securities of Analysys Institute, said that online institutions took the opportunity to launch free courses to attract traffic, which was recognized by the industry.The degree and penetration rate are expected to increase. “This Black Swan incident will promote the online education learning method to third- and fourth-tier cities, and it is expected to change the perception of students and parents who have low acceptance and acceptance of online education.”At the press conference of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council on February 12, Wang Hui, director of the Department of Student Affairs of the Ministry of Education, said that it is still uncertain whether this year’s entrance examination for colleges and universities will be delayed.We will pay close attention to the development and changes of the epidemic situation and carefully study and formulate the specific implementation plan for the college entrance examination this year.In this regard, Liang Tingfu, an expert in planning for further studies, said, “Personally, I think that the college entrance examination this year will not be postponed. Judging from the experience of SARS that year, the college entrance examination was not postponed. Instead, it was advanced from July to June.”Undoubtedly, as long as the pressure for further studies still hangs over students, parents and schools, online education will become a good choice for the orderly conduct of education at this stage. Opportunities and challenges will always coexist with increased competition or the Matthew effect. The online education industry inAt the same time as the peak of traffic, the competitive situation is further upgraded. Analyst Li Yi believes that education and training are “a posteriori”. Although major platforms have launched free courses to attract users, students and parents pay more attention to education.The reputation of the brand, so that the choice of well-known platforms is preferred, and the Matthew effect of the industry may become more and more significant. At the same time, due to the repeated delays in the start time of primary and secondary schools, long-term free courses or open online education platforms are provided to educate manufacturers.Resources and the strength of teaching and research are also a great test, and the high cost of free courses is unaffordable for small and medium-sized manufacturers. “It is undeniable that online education is indeed facing a good development opportunity, but can we seize this opportunity?This round of opportunities depends on the experience and effectiveness of online education, and the traffic conversion capabilities of major manufacturers will determine the subsequentChanges in the development and market position.”Yi Li said. From the perspective of Chauwang Vice President Yuan Dong, the demand for online learning will definitely be stronger in the future.” Regardless of the epidemic, the trend of online learning is irreversible.He believes that the vertical field of online education will eventually show a “721” situation, that is, “the first place will occupy 70% of the market share, the second place will occupy 20% of the market share, and all other companies will occupy 10% of the market.”Share. Yuan Dong said, “Who can ensure the efficiency and effectiveness of student learning faster and better online, whoever can win the future.It needs to be pointed out that compared with other fields, the education industry is often more closely related to policies and regulations. Liu Kai, an analyst at Everbright Securities, said that although optimistic about the long-term development of online education, the industry still has “policy adjustments are not as good as”Expected” risk factors do not rule out the possibility of “further tightening of policy oversight” in the future. What is the prospect of offline education when the “pause button” is pressed? CITIC Securities Research Report believes that extra-curricular K12 training will be subject to certain short-termNegative impact, small and medium-sized institutions will face greater pressure on rents, refunds, cash flow, etc. The industry will further clear some institutions, but leading companies have the ability to survive a short period of difficulty. Qiansheng Chao, an analyst at Minsheng Securities, pointed outIn the short term, the fate of offline training institutions will also depend on the development of the epidemic and policy changes. “Assuming the epidemic can be controlled at the end of the first quarter, the ban on offline training is expected to be withdrawn in the second quarter.If offline institutions can successfully resume classes in the second quarter, the impact of the epidemic on its 2020 performance will be relatively limited, and the prosperity of the offline training industry may pick up after the epidemic is over.Yuan Dong firmly believes that after the epidemic is over, the demand for offline training classes will still be strong, “even the demand suppressed by the epidemic during this period may show a retaliatory rebound.” Therefore, Chalknet has continued to recruit until now.Teacher, “This recruitment will not stop, it will continue.”.
Offline education Press the “pause button”, can online education really “strike up”?
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