Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “Suning WealthInsights” (ID: SuningWealthInsights), author Liu Peibin, 36 氪 Published with permission.Counting seeds, cooking and lying down can contribute to the country.Turn on your computer, use your phone, and stay at home.Adults work at home, and students listen to classes online. This week people started to work and study in an orderly manner to minimize the impact of the virus.Wireless technology, artificial intelligence, big data and cloud computing all support our daily lives.Below, we review the impressive high-tech development in the past year, analyze the nature of technological development and innovation, and then predict new technology application scenarios that may shine in the next five years.I. The fast-developing hard-core high-tech has just passed a year. Some of the rapid development of hard-core high-tech and its application in the market surprised us.1. 5G technology “If you want to be good at work, you must first sharpen it.” At present, the connection of Internet equipment requires the support of network equipment.5G will bring an era of interconnectedness.The maximum theoretical transmission speed of 5G can reach 10Gb / s, which is dozens of times faster than 4G, and the delay rate of transmission information is greatly reduced. A high-definition movie can be downloaded in two or three seconds.As of June 2019, in the latest ranking of 5G SEP patents, Huawei applied for 2G SEP patents up to 2160, which is much higher than other manufacturers. The second place is Nokia 5G SEP patents and the third place is ZTEZTE Corporation.China’s 5G patents account for 34% of the world, and the proper life winner.The 2020 Spring Festival Gala used 5G + 8K / 4K / VR and other innovative methods to create a three-dimensional space that integrates ground, air, and sea surfaces. At the same time, flying screen technology was used to create a 360-degree surround view.I also felt the ultimate experience of “naked eye 3D” in front of me.2. Artificial Intelligence As more and more pictures and voice data are collected for machine learning, China’s ability to expand and innovate AI business to enhance resetting the world will become more prominent.Of the top 50 artificial intelligence research cities in the world, China occupies 10, Beijing is the world’s number one research city, and Shanghai is the seventh.Face recognition programs built using deep learning algorithms have surpassed the recognition accuracy of ordinary people, such as the face recognition gates at train stations, despised lip recognition systems, Sogou AI synthesis anchor “Yani”, Suning Xiao Biu smart speakers.However, things have two sides. It is easy to use artificial intelligence to deepen counterfeiting. It is possible to learn to automatically generate pictures and videos involving real people to spread false information, deceive or create confusion.In August 2019, the AI face-changing program “ZAO” jumped to the second place in the AppStore’s free app download ranking the next day. Of course, it was also hurriedly dropped from the audience overnight, and it fell into the ground.3. Chip technology On the evening of April 16, 2018, the US government banned a paper chip, which almost caused ZTE ZTE, the world’s fourth-largest telecommunications company at that time, to suffer an outrage.Its main business was suspended for nearly three months and was fined by the United States for more than $ 1.1 billion.China is a large manufacturing country and a large chip consuming country. However, the self-sufficiency rate of chip in China is less than 20%, and the annual expenditure on chip imports is as high as two trillion yuan. Netizens have joked that the chip industry is a “send money boy”.After this painful lesson, domestic technology giants such as ZTE, Huawei, and Hikvision increased their R & D investment in core areas such as chips and operating systems. Alibaba and Gree have also joined the tide of chip R & D.At present, the major domestic chip R & D companies include Huawei Hisilicon Semiconductors, Ziguang Zhanrui, Weir Co., Ltd., and Beijing Zhixin Micro.Remember the “spare tire normalization” internal email sent by He Tingbo, President of Huawei Hisilicon on May 17, 2019?Thanks to external market pressure and Huawei’s vigorous procurement, Hisilicon’s sales in 2019 are expected to reach 84.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 68%.4. Big data technology Big data, also called mass data, refers to the huge amount of data involved, which cannot be intercepted, managed, processed, and organized by humans within a reasonable time.People in the industry say that big data falls in 2019, mainly because some businesses are seeking commercial interests and disregarding existing regulatory rules, excessive collection, illegal use and illegal transaction data, which have seriously harmed the interests of users.Technology itself is neutral, and its use depends on people.Data will become more and more valuable in the future, and the data relying on its own business and scenarios will become an important core asset of the company.Considering data security and personal privacy issues, secure multiparty computing based on “data islands” will provide solutions for data sharing.At the same time, with the increase of 5G, the Internet of Things, data collection, content collection, the emergence of dedicated AI chips and the arrival of supercomputers, “edge computing” has gradually come into real life.5. The combination of artificial intelligence AI and Internet of Things IoT will achieve the effect of 1 + 1> 2.The most common IoT applications will be industries such as smart home, smart manufacturing and smart logistics.With the popularization of 5G, all equipment and infrastructure will be linked together. Technology and products will make our entire society more and more efficient. In addition, AI + IoT will be more and more integrated into edge computing, most of which are distributed through the cloud.The training model is placed on the edge layer, and finally from the cloud to the edge to the terminal, the net will become more and more complicated.The most important thing that the Internet of Things needs to solve is data compliance collection and security assurance. While it is convenient for users to take care of children and elderly people remotely, it is also necessary to consider that no one wants their cameras to be watched by others.6. Blockchain originates from the “Bitcoin” blockchain technology. What impresses everyone most is to issue “Aircoin”.But in fact, based on the characteristics of blockchain technology such as unforgeability, full traceability, traceability, openness and transparency, collective maintenance, etc., it has laid a solid “trust” foundation for the financial industry or business cooperation and created a reliable “cooperation” mechanism.Has broad application prospects.On the afternoon of October 24, 2019, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China conducted the eighteenth collective study on the current status and trends of the development of blockchain technology.To accelerate the development of blockchain technology and industrial innovation.The digital currency DCEP endorsed by the People’s Bank of China based on national sovereignty has been put on the agenda and is likely to become the first central bank in the world to issue digital currencies.If the issuance is successful, it will overturn the existing personal payment methods, reshape the world trade settlement system, change the currency issuance mechanism and improve the efficiency of the industrial chain operation.Of course, at this stage, there are gradually mature applications of blockchain, such as crowdfunding, charity, electronic signatures, point redemption, etc.2. What forces are driving technological progress?Technology has brought us a comfortable life and endless wealth, and has achieved economic prosperity.Our world is changed by technology.Some things are even unthinkable: Why put alloy flakes and fossil fuels together to fuel the rocket? Why does a pile of seemingly useless sand turn into a CPU that can provide calculations? Why give pictures to machine learningTo distinguish you from me?We have these forces, which were unimaginable two or three hundred years ago.And the development of technology is actually followed.1. New technologies are developed on the basis of existing technologies.Historian Abbot Payson Usher once said in 1929: “The progress of invention is to constructively integrate the previous elements into a new complex.”Update, we need to continuously research new technical methods in order to improve the network speed.In order to solve a problem, it can be continuously updated on the basis of existing technology.2. Technologies can be combined to produce new technologies.Technology can be combined by modules, and combination evolution is required to drive change through combination.Different perspectives and application branches provide different solutions to problems.We can say that it is the technology that has caused the change in the solution, and it has shown or implied what kind of solution is needed.Over time, developers can get more room to choose solutions, and then the variations and choices in Darwin’s theory really start to play a role in technology.By choosing a better solution to solve its internal design problems, different versions of the technology will gradually be improved.For example, you can think of a mobile phone as a combination of integrated devices such as telephones, MP3 players, cameras, and computers.3. Technology innovation requires cross-border thinking.The so-called cross-border refers to the breakthrough of the original industry practices and regulations, and the grafting of theories and technologies of other industries to achieve innovation and breakthrough behavior.Cross-boundary thinking is a breakthrough thinking, turning “impossible” into “possible” thinking.Break through the boundaries of different fields and bring unexpected solutions to problems.The most well-known case of cross-border thinking (I do n’t know the truth, but it is easy to understand) is: To solve the problem of empty boxes in the production of soap manufacturers, the usual method is to develop high-tech automatic detection devices, and cross-border thinking is to learn from farmers’ wheatFor experience, use a hair dryer to remove empty boxes directly.4. Technology is self-made and economically driven.Technology always carries out such a cycle. In order to solve old problems, new technologies are adopted, new technologies cause new problems, and new problems must be solved by resorting to newer technologies.Without the long-term accumulation and inheritance of science and technology, it is difficult to achieve success in novelty.And technology can be self-creating, it produces new technology from itself.Internal replacement and deepening of the structure are two ways of self-creation.Internal replacement is the replacement of an obstructing component with a better component (sub-technology).Structural deepening refers to finding better parts, materials, or adding new components.As technology opens up new frontiers, it is possible to change the structure of the economy and break the internal balance of the economy.Technology creates economic development, and economic development continues to promote technological progress.3. Predicting the trend of technology application in the next five years Based on the nature of technology and the development trend of existing technologies, a good business model in the future must be a combination of multiple technologies and cross-scenarios.Thanks to the continuation of the current technical dividend, the author boldly predicts that the following four scenarios will still be worthy of attention in the next five years.1. A large number of applications of AI synthesis, virtual reality and other technologies.Low-end repetitive tasks will be replaced by machines in an orderly manner.More and more news or videos will use AI synthesis technology instead of live performance.Robot customer service will replace more than 90% of human services, including voice support or text responses.More and more news or poster solutions will be machine writing and design.Educational training will introduce more AR technologies, and programming courses will be accepted by parents as a basic skill.2. Smart manufacturing continues to upgrade.Based on next-generation information technologies such as the Internet of Things, cloud computing, and big data, it integrates into all aspects of manufacturing activities such as design, production, management, and service.Opening up users to contact the factory to achieve “zero inventory” and respond to customer needs such as personalization and customization will greatly release productivity.3. The rise of intelligent transportation, home and medical.The intelligent core industry is the core functional component of the intelligent system. It is assembled on the original equipment through computer equipment, network transmission equipment, Internet of Things technology, and software to enhance the intelligent experience.In 2019, Suzhou successfully created the first provincial-level connected vehicle pilot zone to build test roads for intelligent connected car road tests.Automatic driving, real-time monitoring of dangerous goods transport vehicles, etc. are all part of intelligent transportation.Smart home, building security, intelligent monitoring of collected information, real-time analysis and other applications are more popular.With the aging of the ageing, nursing robots have fallen into the homes of ordinary people, uploading health status through wearable devices, establishing electronic health records, remote medical assistance, etc. 4. The rise of smart finance and smart investment advisors.Artificial intelligence and finance are tightly integrated, leveraging new technologies to provide superior and efficient financial services.The application of artificial intelligence + big data, realizing the second loan service in the field of intelligent risk control, the sinking scenarios of inclusive finance are increasing, ranging from personal life consumption to corporate capital turnover, from previous people to find funds to fundsDocking people.When the per capita GDP exceeds US $ 10,000, the disposable wealth of households will increase, and insurance and financial management will be increasingly valued.Financial management concepts will change and be handled by professional organizations.And professional institutions will use big data analysis and programmatic transactions to manage customers’ wealth and promote asset appreciation and preservation.4. Conclusion The advancement of science and technology has liberated the productive forces and has really improved people’s lives.It also made the world see that we have the superior R & D strength no less than that of any country, and we can make world-class products.A friend living in Singapore told me that because the United States is hitting Chinese high-tech companies because of fear, he is paying more and more attention to Chinese-made technology products.As Ren Zhengfei said: “Victory must belong to us, because we do not rely on the United States.”.
Bold guess: Which technology directions are the hottest in the next five years?
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