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Editor’s note: This article is from the WeChat public account “Half Cup of Liquor” (ID: gh_09ddf7178294). 36 氪 is authorized to publish Hello everyone. I am a half cup of liquor. This is my ninth article.Investors often leave messages in the background asking me: Hello, how do you think of XX project?From a business perspective and a capital perspective, things are completely different (I think the biggest difference is in attitudes to risk), and I cannot give an effective reference.But since everyone asks a lot, let me briefly talk about my own online education product analysis framework.Demand analysis: 1. Systematic risk analysis with exaggerated demand Many online education products, especially those with diversion channels, have very good initial growth curves, giving the illusion of “big business”.But think about it, online education products come up to the entire Chinese market, but China is too big, and any cat and dog products will be of interest. After one cut, the next one will be more difficult to cut. This “early prosperity” is veryMay cause irrational exaggeration of demand for products by decision makers.You can ask yourself a question: Are there any large-scale, high-growth similar products for offline agencies?If not, is it because online products offer a better experience than offline products?If not, wouldn’t Beijing, a city with a high population density and high education needs, support an offline institution?If not, why not have it in the future and eat up a large share of online products?If these questions cannot be answered, it can be basically determined that the demand for this product is exaggerated.2. Analysis of demand crowding effect The difficulty of running new education categories is much higher than that of other industries.Because education products are not only costly and time consuming, local tyrants can buy 10 types of toys and 100 types of snacks for their children at the same time, but local tyrants have limited time for children. There are products in front of them and various non-rigid productsI can only grab the soup.3. Offline product online product force loss analysis Predicts the proportion of offline education product online, what is the core basis?How much optimization is done, or how much product power is lost?I think the latter.The less product power loss, the easier it is for everyone to accept.The industry trend in recent years also confirms this: online one-to-one and offline one-to-one class experience and after-school service are very good, so online one-to-one outbreak first; online large class and offline large class class experienceThe services are not good, and the students who can accept offline classes can also accept them quickly (the children who can’t accept offline classes can hardly accept online classes).However, there is still a gap between the online small class and offline small class experience and after-school service, so it will not run through quickly, but I believe that with the advancement of technology and management iteration, the experience and service of online small classWill move closer to offline small classes.The above is a rough analysis from the level of class capacity. It can also be disassembled from the product structure level. In this regard, different subdivisions are disassembled in different ways. I cannot give a standard qualitative analysis. For example, you can experience it.For example, the content of primary school content is “broad and shallow”, and the content of high school content is “specialized and deep” (Some people may think that high school mathematics is definitely more than primary school mathematics content, but if you list the basic knowledge, you will find that primary school is higher than high schoolMore, high school just extends more).So relatively speaking, the lectures in primary schools are more important, and the training sessions in high schools are more important. Therefore, from the perspective of product structure, primary products are more suitable for online (of course, it is also important to consider self-control and supervision.All aspects should be considered comprehensively) 4. Analysis of the demand moat The demand moat refers to whether such demand is easily eaten by large institutions.For example, mathematical thinking products.Is there a demand for this type of product?Yes, but the window period is very short. As long as the child says that Lisuo will count in those two years in elementary school, and then do it later, he can only play subject mathematics cards, such as adding more subject content.This kind of education can easily be destroyed by the large institutions of pure mathematics education: parents and their children should learn a mathematical thinking course with the content of mathematics, why not let the children directly learn the subject mathematics course with the addition of mathematical thinking?The products that occupy students’ future needs are more productive.The “entry play” is a classic play at the operation level, and the “export” play is a classic play at the product level (learning and thinking are more like chicken thieves, where to open a new campus to specialize in sixth grade is to enter the entrance and go downHit the exit).5. Analysis of the possibility of sustained demand growth Most of the products that the K12 education industry just needs are mostly policy-oriented results.Such as the need for synchronous counseling in middle schools and the demand for primary and secondary mathematics.But children’s English is an exception.The outbreak of children’s English demand was largely stimulated by China’s accession to the WTO and the 2008 Olympic Games. More and more advanced parents began to let their children start English from primary school. When this proportion exceeds 30%, this growth will accelerate; when thisWhen the percentage exceeds 50%, this growth will burst.Many non-necessary products, such as children’s programming and calligraphy, also hang “XX is about to enter the college entrance examination” on their lips every day, as if the Ministry of Education belongs to his family.In particular, children’s programming can really be a hot spot. In the age of the Internet and the age of AI, programming is not easy.No one in the car era of TM would repair a car.If you are not just in need of education products, you can only increase the scale by two ways. KOL (similar to the early Olympiad, promoting various gold medals and cows), and building regional word of mouth density (once English for children)Recently, it has been found that the outbreak of Chinese language training in some cities is also the number. The entrance has been exploded, so that parents no longer want to learn why, because they are learning around.)Some companies want to slowly cultivate the market based on product effects. In fact, it is very difficult, because the effects of educational products are delayed and uncertain, which will make it difficult to run out quickly, and at the same time, the bad ones will not die.(There are many scammers in the education and health care industries for a common reason).Cost structure analysis: I was neglected to do product cost structure analysis. I feel that the demand is large enough to always make money.But a lecture by Zhang Bangxin once awakened me: Many businesses are established, but not necessarily good ones. Why do you want to do it?Back to online education.Whether a business is a good business depends on how the business is performing offline. Has the product cost structure changed after going online?Let me talk about two misunderstandings: 1. Many financial education startups have very beautiful financial models, and they don’t seem to have any logical problems.They tried to tell investors that although their cost structure is not much different from that of large institutions, they can reduce certain costs and expenses through refined management.They think that large organizations spend so much, or that some high costs can be optimized through management.However, the education industry is very different from other industries in that small organizations can often do business through more sophisticated management and lower costs. As the scale increases, many predictable and unforeseen expenses and cost increases are inevitable.of.Therefore, when analyzing financial models, it is necessary to compare business data with New Oriental Studies (of course, it is necessary to split its diversified business). Don’t believe in nonsense.2. Many online education companies will talk about offline agency rents and renovation booths.This part accounts for about 10-25% of the revenue of offline institutions (first-line high, third-line low).But even if we do not consider the improvement of the experience brought by offline institutions, the scale of online institutions ’large-scale recruiting costs is much higher than that of offline institutions, and the cost of this is far longer than that of offline institutions.Not big.The net profit of offline institutions is basically a dozen points, so online education products whose cost structure is not optimized for similar offline education products are basically unable to earn money.In summary, if online education products cannot optimize offline products in terms of cost structure, it is basically difficult to scale up.The following analyzes the mainstream models: 1. Online one-to-one.The cost of offline one-to-one teachers is 35%, the cost of sales is 12%, and the cost of class teachers is 10% (Note: The above data is calculated based on industry average data, different institutions are not completely unified), which adds up to 57%.After deducting rent, market expenses and taxes, it is basically impossible to make money. What cost structure has been changed online?No, so one-on-one online is difficult to escape the next one-on-one fate of the line (I talk to you you don’t make money, you talk to me you can’t die, this is not a concept) 2. Online small class.The financial model of the small class product is the easiest to deceive (why? See the historical article “Why the small class model is the most difficult to do in the education and training industry” for details). The gross profit of the offline class is highly dependent on the full class rate, so two types of small class can live:One is that the gross profit is very high, and the organization can make money even if the ideal full rate is not reached.This is the case for the mainstream 25-person small class. The cost of teachers in large institutions is basically more than 20%, leaving enough room for gross profit.The other is that the gross profit is low, but it can maintain a very high full rate.Is there such an offline, the answer is no, so for classes with less than 10 people in offline institutions, except for some high-priced and ultra-small classes in some local tyrant cities in the south, other basics are not doing well (of course, this is not only a question of gross profit, but alsoThere are supply issues, which are more complicated and are not shown here).Has the online small class optimized the cost structure of the above two models?The first 25-person online class is also difficult to maintain a high full rate, so there is no optimization in terms of cost structure.However, the 25-person online class has a significant optimization of the organization’s net profit: the long-term ramp-up period of the capacity of the offline small-class organization results in a slower early return on investment; and the recruitment and operation of the offline small-class organization is complicated and the operating risk is high.Although the online small class also faces the ramp-up period of production capacity and operational risks, these two will not cause problems of capital occupation and investment risks.If the second type of super small class with less than 10 people copies the offline model, it is basically impossible.However, the online super small class can guarantee a high full class rate in a way that the offline super small class cannot do, which is the “three non-fixed” mode (such as the magic ears of online children’s English institutions), that is, not fixed time, not fixed classmates, notFixed teacher.In this way, the ultra-small class can ensure the ideal gross profit margin, thereby reducing the cost of teachers. This is a change in the cost structure of the offline ultra-small class.Therefore, from the perspective of cost structure, the “three non-fixed” mode of ultra-small classes has the possibility of running through. Of course, the “three non-fixed” experience loss needs to be considered.3. Online class.Do you think that the proportion of teachers in the offline large class is lower than that of the small class?In fact, it is wrong. The offline class is mainly supported by the reputation of the famous teachers. In many cases, the institutions work for the famous teachers, not the famous teachers.By breaking the physical restrictions, the online large class has created a large class with thousands of people (this cannot be done by offline institutions), and the tutor has isolated the lecturer from the students, which can reduce the lecturer’s pay ratio to revenueWithin 5%, the cost structure has been greatly optimized, so in this respect, the online master class is running (I am really talking nonsense …).Supply-side analysis: As mentioned above, both online and offline training belong to the service industry, and the biggest enemy of all service industries is scale.The risk of uncontrollable quality of educational products brought about by the growth of institutions must exist.For different product models, the risk of uncontrollable product quality increases with the scale of the business.Therefore, the ceiling of an education company is often not determined by the scale of demand, but by the scale of controllable supply.Many people don’t understand it. Isn’t the standardization of learning and thinking of small offline classes good? Why does learning and thinking still be so bloody to engage in offline dual teachers and online school big classes to expand teacher productivity?Stand back and speak without back pain. I estimate that whoever manages 20,000 or 30,000 teachers also wants to add one less person.Before talking about the supply problem, I would like to reiterate my own point of view: All education companies that claim to be independent and weaken people will not last long.Standardization is not about people, it is about making people do better.In other words, the word standardization itself has misled many people. It is better to say that the product is controllable than to standardize it.Talk about your own supply-side perspective from three aspects: 1. Teacher salary and skills growth range A company with too narrow salary and skills growth range cannot develop.There are two reasons for the narrow interval. The threshold is too high and the ceiling is too low.These two situations result in too few people who can come in, and those who come in want to run shortly.Learning and thinking is to lower the threshold for employment through standardized teaching and research, open the salary growth channel by raising wages four times a year, and open the business growth channel through grade promotion (one-to-one teachers love to run not only because of low wages, another important reason isThe repetition is too strong, and one lesson may be taught ten times a week.) Open a career development channel through the full-time system.It always feels that the company that can attract and retain employees by smashing money has not fully understood that the current suffering is not unbearable for young people, but disappointment and confusion about the future.2. The management boundary brought by business attributes I recently thought about a question: why a country can be stable with more than a billion people, a factory can have hundreds of thousands of workers (such as Foxconn), but a company hasTens of thousands of people feel that the management is very difficult (such as Google, a company with such a strong culture, only 20,000 people, many employees do not feel like the original Google)?The reason is that the country is essentially a platform, and it is sufficient to formulate rules and some basic support systems, and it is basically not necessary to care about the life and death of participants.How important is the official’s dictionary).The factory controls the bottom line of the workers, so the management of the factory guarantees that the workers are all ok if they are above 60 points.However, the company emphasizes everyone’s breakthrough. The management of the company must create a mechanism for each person to continuously break through his own. This is as difficult as stimulating everyone in the class to compete for the first place.Therefore, whether an educational institution’s business is more “factory” or more “corporatized” is an important factor that determines the company’s future supply scale ceiling.Maybe many people think that saying so much “is not the degree of standardization”?It’s not that simple.For example, I consider the level of business standardization of our company to be very high, but our usual style is that the sales atmosphere is very strong and the chicken blood is fierce. The result of this “rushing” management methodIt is true that with the increase in scale, the difficulty of management increases with the naked eye.But by contrast, under the dual blessings of steady growth and brand influence, the teacher who learns and thinks seems to be able to “Buddhism”. In terms of renewal, there is no need to sell so much, as long as the “guarantee” work is done well.The goal can be achieved (don’t raise the bar here, there is no organization that doesn’t make sales, the degree is a problem).Such management is naturally less difficult, and the ceiling supplied by enterprises is also higher.Some people may think that New Oriental can also be regarded as “rushing” management to a certain extent, and the scale is not small?However, it should also be noted that the structure of the weak headquarters in the New Oriental strong campus greatly reduces the difficulty of headquarters management, and of course brings a lot of uncertainty-compared to thinking, the various indexes of New Oriental branches are very different.3. The division of labor trap Many companies are trying to use division of labor to improve efficiency and improve the quality of everyone’s work.However, it should be noted that the management of large-scale peer-to-peer cooperation (for example, each teacher is equipped with a teaching assistant, and there are now 1000 teachers and 1,000 teaching assistants, which is large-scale peer-to-peer cooperation) is extremely difficult to manage.If one person can get 8 points for one thing and 10 points for two people, then 100 people can get 800 points for 100 things, and 200 people can only get 600 points.Of course, with the division of labor between machines and people, then this efficiency loss is extremely low.If you have to introduce people to divide labor, you need to think about how to reduce the frequency of point-to-point communication and reduce the difficulty of management.These are some of my perspectives on the analytical framework for online education products.It really feels like online education has a long way to go..

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