Shen Translation Bureau is a compilation team of 36 氪. It focuses on technology, business, workplace, life and other fields, and focuses on introducing new foreign technologies, new perspectives and new trends.Editor’s note: Ten years have passed and a new decade has begun.What will happen in the future?To predict the future, one must focus on current issues and trends.Ben Longstaff summarizes key technology trends and current major issues, and makes nine predictions for the next ten years.You can refer to it.The original article was published on Medium with the title: 9 predictions for 2020–2029. I like to think about the future a lot, so I decided to predict the future this year.My predictions for this decade of federal learning will unlock the value of previously inaccessible sensitive data.Deepfake will have political implications, and issuer-certified content will become necessary.Nationalism will rise worldwide, and the Internet will fall apart.Esports can take away a large chunk of sports attention and advertising revenue.Blockchain will be adopted by enterprises.Until key hosting solutions are available for everyone, mainstream adoption will be difficult.Self-driving cars will open up new business models.And regulation will be a major obstacle to adoption.Welfare systems can become strained.Digital currencies and negative interest rates will open the Pandora’s box.Search will be reimagined.1. Federal learning By running algorithms on centralized data sets, you can extract value from the data.But as the amount of data continues to increase, data centralization will become increasingly difficult.In 2018, approximately 2.5 exabytes (2,500,000,000 GB) of new data is generated daily.90% of the online data now created in the past two years.The solution to this problem is a new area of machine learning, also known as federated learning.The practice of federated learning is the opposite of general data transmission to algorithms, which is to send algorithms to data.You may have experienced the benefits of federal learning without realizing it.When you enter text on your phone, as you type, the input method will give you several possible choices.In fact, these input suggestions are generated by machine learning models.Privacy laws prohibit Apple, Google, etc. from sending your private messages to their learning algorithms.So they use federal learning to train models on your phone.The benefit of user privacy comes at the cost of running algorithms on the device.Federal learning is suitable for applications that focus on privacy.Medical regulation of how medical data is stored and used is designed to ensure the safety of patient data.These regulatory policies make it nearly impossible for data to leave the hospital.I think we will see the emergence of customized medical equipment around 2023.Sending algorithms to hardware bypasses the issue of compliance.This can release the great value currently bound by regulation and red tape.2. Deepfake Photoshop makes us question the legitimacy of photos seen online.Deepfake makes us have the same skepticism about video.U.S. senators have expressed their concerns to Facebook executives, who are concerned that deep counterfeiting will affect the 2020 US elections.My prediction is that we will see the effects of deep forgery on the 2020 US presidential election.This will bring up the debate over whether social media companies are publishers or platforms.Trusted digital assets from publishers will be registered to combat fake news.By 2024, social media platforms will require verification of the authenticity of the content.Revenge porn is illegal in many parts of the world.But it would be much harder to sue deep-forged vengeful pornography, as its source would be difficult to prove.Once the politician’s family becomes a victim, the media platform is treated as a publisher.3. Nationalist globalization is good for consumers and large businesses, but not for employees and small businesses.The result of local economies of scale is value creation.The result of global economies of scale is value extraction.Free trade agreements and consumer demand for cheap products create a bottom-to-bottom competition, where local economies of scale cannot compete with large companies.The rise of nationalism worldwide is a backlash against the impact of globalization on small businesses.Now the world is on fire. Here are demonstrations in various places.The yellow vest protests in France were triggered by rising gasoline prices.This protest has been going on for a year, month, and twelve days, and it continues.Protests for Lebanon’s resignation have been going on for two months.During a two-month, three-week, and two-day protest against unemployment and low wages in Iraq, 511 people were killed and 21,000 were injured.The increase of 3 cents in the subway in Chile has triggered protests involving 5% of the population, which has now continued for 77 days.In response to new regulations on nitrogen emissions, Dutch farmers have protested for 90 days.In response to rising fuel prices, Haiti’s protests have lasted 1 year, 5 months and 12 days.Rumors of a pension cut have sparked a 38-day protest in Colombia.40,000 farmers blocked tractors in Berlin to protest changes in agricultural policy.Rising gasoline prices have sparked 45 days of protests in Iran. Algeria’s protests have been going on for 317 days. After excluding inflation, the US has not improved much for ordinary Americans.After deducting inflation factors, the middle class’s income has not improved significantly. Everyone is afraid that their leaders can protect their jobs from foreign competition.My prediction is that Britain will leave the EU, then France, then Germany.The EU will then dissolve.People will put pressure on leaders to protect themselves from free trade.I think that Russia and other parliaments will set up their own DNS independently from the Internet.This separate Internet will emerge in response to a form of nationalism.4. E-sports and entertainment E-sports will become a larger industry than most regular sports.”We are basketball, we are NBA, we are still a little ESPN”-Netflix explained the traditional e-sports traditional sports game, you may hear the captain will say a few words briefly.In e-sports, the entire team is continuously being broadcast live.This makes it easier for viewers to understand the story line of esports.And game companies are constantly adjusting the rules of the game to make it more entertaining.From the perspective of mainstream media, the industry does not seem mature enough.But the change is coming. With the money, the Wimbledon singles champion’s prize is $ 3 million. The “Fortress Night” World Cup Finals’ prize is also $ 3 million. There is no doubt that e-sports is a big deal.Streaming media and content creation The top 4 cable companies cover 80% of the US cable TV market.Cable companies can give content producers orders to tell them what the content should be.Faced with long-term long-term contracts that guarantee profits, it is difficult for content producers to shake off the temptation.To justify subscription fees, many content distributors are now content producers.So there are original series from Netflix, Hulu, Youtube, and Amazon.”We’re competing with Fortnite more than HBO, and we’re losing more.”-The trend of Netflix’s open letter to shareholders will continue, and the result will be less and less content.Storyline-Don’t tell me how to consume my content. In 2013, Netflix released a whole season of “House of Cards”.The screenwriter no longer needs to reintroduce the previous story or character, but assumes that you already know the latest plot.There is no need to grab the audience’s attention in every episode to open up space for more complex storylines.Marvel goes one step further, introducing cross-film role development through cross-film.Currently, we consume stories through existing storylines.The next development direction will be to re-edit the series so that you can enjoy it again according to the story line of each character.Imagine what would happen if you looked at the cut-out version of Game of Thrones from the perspective of Tyrion Lannister.And deep forgery may take fan novels to new heights.This will allow fans to contribute to their favorite things.Fans participating in the anchor on Twitch are esports street performers.Twitter is a way for celebrities to interact with their fans.However, it is difficult for fans to attract the attention of celebrities.Interaction on Twitter is often lagging.Twitch provides real-time interaction with this new celebrity.Anchors are selling qualifications to become part of their own community.Watching the anchor broadcast is like going to a club.You can spend the night with someone who doesn’t look at you, or if you want to become a VIP, there are digital bottle service available online.I suspect that subscribers on Twitch will have a glass ceiling.More people participating in the live broadcast means less interaction with celebrities.5. Blockchain and Bitcoin Blockchain is a function, and trust is the benefit of this function.There has been much discussion on the topic that DeFi (decentralized finance) is the key to getting blockchain into the mainstream.Key management remains difficult.I believe that the adoption of blockchain technology will mainly occur behind the corporate supply chain.It is difficult to transform existing processes with blockchain.It requires the support of multiple stakeholders, and it also needs to obtain trusted data from off-chain to become on-chain.Decentralized applications will continue to be adopted in the fields of gambling, gaming and transactions.To be accepted by the mainstream, key management, custody, and recovery issues need to be addressed.Not your key, nor your cryptocurrency speculation. Bitcoin stipulates that the miner’s reward will be halved for every 210,000 blocks mined, which is called halving.By the middle of 2020, a third halving will occur, and many people predict that this will bring a new round of bull market.John McAfee is confident of this (he predicts that the price of Bitcoin will reach $ 500,000 by the end of 2020).I hope they are right.As a currency, Bitcoin failed, but as a means of value storage, it succeeded.6. Self-driving cars Due to regulatory restrictions, the adoption of self-driving cars will be slow, but ultimately capitalism will prevail.By then the shipping cost will be close to zero.Netscape provides platforms for Amazon, Google, and Facebook, and unmanned fleets will become new platforms for development.When the cost of delivery drops to zero, it will open up a new business model that is meaningless now, for example: motorized food preparation, so that your pizza is just fresh when the car arrives.For predictive delivery, orders are placed before the product arrives.Office with commute time.The family showroom for “Help me make a generation” makes returning goods as easy as shipping.Use something with low utilization on demand.The principle of just-in-time manufacturing will drive the rise of timely consumption.7. Welfare systems in countries like Australia will become tight.Because the number of people who need support is growing faster than the number of taxpayers who provide support.All figures below are from the Australian Taxation Office or Australian Bureau of Statistics.The number of taxpayers in 2007-2008 was 13,123,478. The number of taxpayers in 2015-2016 was 13,508,101.In other words, the taxable population of Australia increased by 2.93%, while the total population increased by 13.24%.Australia has a program called Newstart to help unemployed people looking for work.As Newstart has not achieved meaningful growth since the 1990s, the Australian government is often criticized.In 2009, the number of people joining Newstart was 443,918. In 2014, the number of people joining Newstart was 695,907. In other words, the number of people joining Newstart increased by 56% in 5 years.The population is growing, but the industry cannot keep up, which will make it more difficult to balance the budget year by year.This trend makes me sleepless all night.8. Cashless and Sovereign Currency The International Monetary Fund has published an article entitled “Cashing In: How to Make Negative Interest Rates Work”.In a cashless world, interest rates will be unlimited.The central bank can reduce policy rates from, say, 2% to -4% in response to a severe recession.The cuts will be passed on to bank deposits, loans and bonds.With no cash, savers will be forced to pay negative interest rates to deposit money into banks, making consumption and investment more attractive.This could affect loans, increase demand and stimulate the economy.However, if cash is available, it will not be possible to drastically reduce interest rates to negative numbers.Cash has the same purchasing power as bank deposits, but with a nominal interest rate of zero.Moreover, it can exchange bank currency without restriction.Therefore, you don’t have to pay negative interest, you can hold cash at zero interest rate.Cash is a free option with zero interest rate, which is equivalent to the lower limit of interest rate.-Japan, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, and the European Central Bank all have negative interest rates.Neobanks, a new type of bank with only one form of online, will eat away at the cake of traditional banks when it competes for young customers.Older customers still want the kind of security and comfort that can come into a branch and talk face-to-face with people.Sovereign and corporate currencies The following central banks are actively studying sovereign digital currencies.Bank of Thailand Marshall Islands Bank Curaçao and Sint Maarten Central Bank Bahamas Central Bank Turkish Central Bank Iran Central Bank Tunisia Uruguay Central Bank Venezuelan Central Bank of West Africa United Central Bank Eastern Caribbean Central Bank European Central Bank of Singapore Singapore Monetary Authority Bank of China Bank of China Saudi ArabiaThe Bank of Sweden and the United Arab Emirates The central bank has traditionally restricted regulators’ access to industries that banks can expand into.Banks have an unfair advantage and they can see who is the best customer for a business.It is also possible for corporate currencies to do this.Once people start building a metadata layer about address owners, stablecoins have a strange effect on privacy.Libra is the first corporate currency to raise government concerns because its members have a strong distribution channel.Libra will initially be supported by a package of fiat currencies, but its governance is controlled by a group of companies.What can prevent Libra from decoupling from fiat currencies like the dollar and gold?Challenging Sovereignty The challenge it poses to sovereignty will be directly proportional to its utility and adoption rate.At present, most nation-states have central banks that operate within their jurisdictions. Central banks are the makers of monetary policy.If Libra is put into operation on a large scale, it may affect the ability of a nation-state to regulate its economy.And its decision makers’ operations may not be within the jurisdiction of the nation-state.Bitcoin, like gold, is a means of stored value because its supply is limited and everyone agrees that it has value.Ethereum is like oil, and its value is obtained by everyone using it to execute smart contracts.Other tokens are like taxi licenses, giving everyone the right to work.None of these projects will affect a country’s ability to control the economy.So far, the cryptocurrency audience has probably reached 50 million people so far.Facebook has a direct channel to 2 billion people.Therefore, I think the US government will delay the development of Libra.9. Reimagining search-I hope to achieve it by 2029. I think search needs to be redesigned.Better results come from better data, more data.But do you really want a for-profit company to have all your data?I don’t want to.Federal learning provides the tools to unlock the value of our local data.In addition to the top 10 search results from Google, your local data will also contribute the top 10,000 real-time results.The aggregated results are then reordered based on your personal data.Your browsing history and transaction data will also be used to train reordering algorithms.We live in anxiety that we cannot find a way to achieve financial freedom.The way wealth was created in the last century is no longer applicable.The road to reimagining search begins with helping people understand their money.And the first step in this path can begin with insight into the story behind the data.Translator: boxi..
Nine predictions for the next ten years
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