Editor’s note: This article is from the WeChat public account “Prism” (ID: lengjing_qqfinance), 36 氪 released with permission.Author | Edited by Luo Songsong | Produced by Zhang Qingning | Prism · Tencent Xiaoman Studio finished “Iron Man disco” at the Shanghai factory, and returned to the United States for Elon Musk to receive a New Year gift package.In just one week, Tesla’s stock price rose 15% to $ 537.92 (as of January 14th, Eastern Time), with a market value approaching $ 100 billion, making it the most valuable car company in the history of the United States.The old car companies add up to more than 10 billion US dollars.According to the compensation incentive plan for Musk adopted by Tesla’s board of directors in early 2018, if Tesla’s market value can reach the 100 billion US dollar mark and maintain for a certain period of time, Musk will “unlock” nearly one billion US dollars worth of stockreward.For Iron Man, this is undoubtedly a huge encouragement.You know, since it was founded in 2003, Tesla has been on the verge of bankruptcy several times, and one year and a half ago it was still struggling with the ramp-up of the Model 3’s production capacity.Over the past year, Tesla’s stock price has fluctuated like a roller coaster.At the beginning of 2019, affected by a series of unfavorable factors such as privatization storms, job cuts, executive departures, and insufficient demand theory, Tesla’s stock price fell from the highest at the beginning of the year to $ 350 per share to the lowest in the year at $ 177/ Share, almost cut back.October 24, 2019 became the turning point.On the same day, Tesla announced that the company achieved a profit of US $ 143 million in the third quarter, exceeding Wall Street expectations. After just three months, the stock price doubled.This is the most intense time for the long and short duel.The long-selling and short-selling US investment bank Oppenheimer directly raised Tesla’s stock price from $ 385 / share to $ 612 / share, the highest target price currently given by Wall Street.The company’s analyst Colin Rusch believes that Tesla has been growing in pain, and now they have learned their lessons, solved the bottlenecks on the production side, and have reached a level that can support the company to achieve continuous positive cash.The scale effect of the flow, the market side also shows strong demand.US investment bank Jefferies raised Tesla’s target price to $ 600 per share and believes that Tesla can achieve full profitability in 2020. “The new products released by competitors in 2019 have provedSierra ’s advantages in powertrain efficiency and connected car. “Another investment bank Piper Sandler believes that Tesla’s stock price will further sprint to $ 553, and the biggest thrust comes from China.”If Tesla can replicate the Model 3’s market share in the United States to China, and this logic can be extended to the upcoming Model Y, then Tesla’s sales in China could eventually exceed 650,000 vehicles.” The investment bankAnalyst Alexander Potter wrote in a report.However, both in terms of return on investment and sales figures, Tesla’s stock price seems somewhat “suspicious”.Tesla was founded more than 16 years ago and officially went public in 2010. In the past ten years, it has only achieved four quarters of profit and has never achieved full-year profit.From the release of the first production car Model S to the current Model 3, over the past eight years, Tesla has sold about 900,000 vehicles worldwide.Among them, the sales volume in 2019 reached 367,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 50%, but only 4.2% of General Motors.Credit Suisse believes that Tesla’s current stock price is based on an extremely high assumption: global sales will reach 1.2 million units in 2025.When Tesla’s stock price exceeded the historical threshold of $ 500, Barclays Bank maintained its valuation of $ 200 / share, and considered Tesla to be a “hibernating bear” (implied “bear market”).Citibank maintains its target valuation of $ 222 per share, “Our position is not necessarily bullish or bearish, but rather risks and returns, such as asset-liability ratios, quality of earnings, profit levels, sustainability of own cash flow, andThese risks, though mitigated by management departure, have not been completely eliminated. CFRA believes that “production at the Shanghai plant will put pressure on the gross profit margin in the first half of 2020, and sales in the US market will alsoAffected by the decline of federal subsidy standards, increased market competition and seasonal factors. “According to US government regulations, consumers can enjoy a tax deduction of $ 2500- $ 7,500 when purchasing an electric vehicle.When the cumulative sales volume reaches 200,000, the subsidy intensity will be reduced by 50% every six months until it is finally cancelled.Tesla’s sales in the United States reached 200,000 units in 2018, and the subsidy began to be halved to $ 3,750 in January 2019. It has been completely cancelled at the end of the year.JP Morgan maintains a “sell” rating on Tesla.They believe that compared to the cheaper Model 3, the sales of the more expensive Model S and Model X vehicles, which have higher gross margins, have fallen by 30% year-on-year, and the stock price is overvalued.When the stock price of the Shanghai factory fattening stock soared for more than three months, almost all the good news for Tesla came from China.On January 7, 2020, Musk rushed from the United States to the Shanghai plant overnight, and officially started the large-scale delivery of domestic Model 3.During the car delivery ceremony, he couldn’t hide his excitement. In addition to thanking the “Chinese government” and “old car owners”, he was also dancing on the scene.Musk has no excitement.The Shanghai plant, which started on January 7, 2019, was completed, put into production, and rolled off the vehicle in less than a year, refreshing the “China speed”.In addition, as China’s first wholly foreign-owned car company, Tesla has received more than 13 billion yuan in low-interest loans before and after, and has received “national-level” treatment in policies, including purchase tax exemption and government subsidies.On January 11, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Miao Wei said at the “2020 China’s Hundred People’s Association of Electric Vehicles” forum that on July 1, 2020, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will not significantly decline.Words are undoubtedly another good thing.Prior to this, the domestic Model 3 announced a price reduction from 299,000 yuan. Based on the speed of localization, the outside world generally believes that there is still room for price to continue.The person in charge of Tesla’s Shanghai factory previously said in an interview with “Prism” that the current localization rate of Model 3 is 30%, which will reach 70-80% around July 2020, and will reach 100% by the end of the year.In addition, the Shanghai plant is already equipped to produce 3,000 vehicles per week.Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Federation of Vehicle Industry Associations, believes that with the increase in localization rate and production capacity climbing, the price of domestic Model 3 can be reduced to about 250,000 yuan, which will be about 10% cheaper than the average selling price in the US.Societe Generale’s forecast is more bold.After calculating, they believe that on the premise of a 10-20% reduction in direct raw material costs after domestic production, if the pursuit of a similar gross margin (about 19%) as the US version, domestic Model 3 has 27-34% price reduction space,The corresponding absolute price reduction is 85,000-108,000 yuan.At the scene on January 7, Musk announced the launch of the Model Y project in Shanghai, and stated that Model Y’s positioning is an affordable SUV, and according to his own prediction, Model Y sales will exceed the previous TexPull the total sales of all models.Model Y is currently accepting reservations, starting at 444,000 yuan.Although no specific production schedule has been announced, for a country that loves SUVs, the Model Y, which is cheaper than the Model X, will undoubtedly be more attractive and lethal.Continue to directly impact “ABB” Musk founded Tesla not only to make it the world’s largest electric vehicle company, but to eliminate fuel vehicles.This lethality has been manifested in the United States.According to the US news site Cleantechnica, in the third quarter of 2019, Model 3 sales reached 43,000 units, which is 1.68 times the total sales of BMW 2 Series + 3 Series + 4 Series + 5 Series, which is Mercedes-Benz C-Class + CLA + CLS+ E-level total sales are twice, which is 2.26 times that of Audi A3 + A4 + A5 + A6.This “big killing Quartet” performance will probably be staged in the Chinese market, especially when the Model 3 + Model Y set of punches comes into play, the most direct impact will undoubtedly be ABB (Audi, BMW, Mercedes),Not to mention those “bare-footed” new Chinese carmakers.In 2019, China’s auto sales amounted to 25.769 million units, a decrease of 8.2% compared to 2018, continuing the decline over the past year.Many luxury car brands have risen against the trend. Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz sold more than 690,000 vehicles in China in 2019, of which the BMW Group increased 13.1% year-on-year, Mercedes-Benz increased 6.2% year-on-year, and Audi increased 4.1%.I am afraid such a good day will not last long.”Tesla’s localization will obviously squeeze the market share of luxury car brands, and ABB’s growth trend will be reversed, on the one hand because the speed of consumption upgrades in the macro economy is slowing, and on the other hand, TeslaPull the brand appeal and price. “Mo Huaying, a partner of Chejiehui Capital, told Prism.A brokerage person analyzed that China’s luxury car market sales will be 2.9 million units in 2019, and it is expected to grow to 4.5 million units in 10 years. Of the extra 1.6 million units, Tesla will get the most market growth.the amount..
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