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Editor’s note: This article is from the public micro-channel number “that Finance” (ID: yidiancaijing), Author: Liu Yajie, Editor: Liu Yu, 36 krypton authorized publishing market in full capacity to digest manufacturers, mobile phone users are still recognized, but increasingly tricky,This is the initial appearance of the stock era, and mobile phone manufacturers have long been used to it.Who said that the old phone, the industry “pill”?Since Steve Jobs became his own brand, many people in the mobile phone industry consider themselves to have “smart teeth” and “not bad tongues”, and have begun a century-old “imitation show”.They have sharp angles and sharp words, but they don’t know how to learn.”If the battlefield of the smartphone has disappeared, what are you going to do with Xiaomi?” Lu Weibing, Chang Cheng, and Wang Xiaoyan, after Xiaomi had gathered the number of landlords, netizens began to care about whether Li Nan, who had left Meizu, would also go for fun.Unexpectedly, Li Nan retreated, and even gave the mobile phone “the theory of demise.”The loser will not be courageous, but his mobile phone “the theory of demise” is enough to eat.There are fewer and fewer familiar faces in the mobile phone circle, and there is more and more anxiety. It has also caught up with the 5G era that awakened the Internet of Things, and there is room for selling anxiety.”Entrepreneurs don’t listen to economists, otherwise they will die.” Li Nan is neither a famous economist nor a successful entrepreneur, but don’t think his words are credible.The era is like a feather duster, sweeping away dust and dirt, but it can make the real value last forever.In 2019, someone has been swept away. Will the phone flash again in 2020?01 Prelude to Death In fact, in 2019, it was not Li Nan who called the mobile phone “the theory of demise” first.During MWC2019, Chang Cheng, who is still the vice president of Lenovo Group, couldn’t hide the pessimism.5G networks bring high data transmission frequency, low latency, and low power consumption performance, and also make high equipment capacity possible.The first three items can be used as a means to optimize the smartphone experience, but the emergence of the fourth attribute challenges the use logic established in the era of smartphones.Once, the main subject of the networking demands has always been users. They cannot be separated from the touch screen, operating system, application ecology, camera … but when the subject that generates the demand becomes an article, a lot of tables, chairs, and fans need to access the network,Their needs are not met by smartphones.So he wrote on the third page of the PPT, “Smartphone is Dying”.In the following year, more and more mobile phone manufacturers began to “do nothing.””In our company, including many leaders at the highest level, it is recommended to cut off this business (tablet) and say that there is no need to do it again.” Huawei Yu Chengdong just did not believe in evil, not only pulled MediaPad Pro back from the death line, but also smoothlyIntroduced the Smart Speaker Sound X-a hot discussion on the Internet whether a tablet should be hung on a pen, and whether the speaker has added a rich temperament to Huawei.At the INNO Day Future Technology Conference, Chen Mingyong wielded a 50 billion yuan check and planned to hit AR, cloud computing, and IoT in the next three years.But what about smartphones?There seems to be no clear plan.”If the auto industry does not do well in the next ten years, OPPO may make cars, but at present it is not possible.” If it is not the last sentence to brake in time, OPPO is afraid to become the first in the media to makeCar phone manufacturers.”Every bird is flying, good bow hiding.” There is no living thing in the mobile phone circle, there is no need to oil these shotguns.Instead of the bosses themselves, more and more old faces choose to leave.In mid-2019, Jonathan Yves, who could not design a decent product without being bullied by Jobs, chose to bid farewell to Tim Cook and set up his own design company, LoveFrom Jony.Although Apple’s name is still on the customer list, the business has expanded to products such as cars, drones, home appliances, and kitchen appliances-he has realized that eggs cannot be put in a basket.A month later, in China’s Li Nan, the end of the Meizu idol group consisting of Bai Yongxiang, Yang Yan and himself.Then came Luo Yonghao and Li Wanqiang.You know, at that time, corporate bosses were still secretive about the layoffs. They helped the former owner “cut meat” in such an alternative way, which was kind and just.However, such feelings, but it makes the old family kidney pain.The four people who have left the company have all stood on their own, not being the leader of design, the founder of the model, or even the soul of the company.A series of familiar names, even the end of the year and Wang Xiaoyan slightly dimmed star, can not be included in the mobile phone manufacturers “retirement All-Star” first lineup.Looking at it this way, the mobile phone market seems to be stepping towards darkness, as Li Nan said.02 whose doomsday?The question is, has darkness really arrived?In September, just as those top executives began to leave, IDC released a forecast report: It is expected that global smartphone shipments will reach 1.388 billion in 2020, and the market will not only stop shrinking, but will even show a 1.6% growth.It will last until 2023.Don’t be too small, this is very rare data after the market enters the incremental era.”In the second half of 2019, large-scale promotions and discounts will help clear inventory, make consumers excited about future mobile phone technology, and guide the market back to new growth.” IDC senior research analyst Sangeetika Srivastava said “mobile phone technology”Of course it means 5G.Focusing on the domestic market, according to the latest data from ICT, the national mobile phone market shipments in 2019 were 389 million, of which 5G mobile phone sales were 13.769 million, accounting for 3.5%; combined with IDC’s forecast, the overall sales of 5G mobile phones in 2020With a proportion of 8.9%, a new growth opportunity is coming.In other words, the 5G era is not the end of the smartphone, but a new beginning.How tempting is this new beginning?You can compare Pingbu Qingyun’s smart speakers and wearable devices horizontally.Based on comprehensive third-party data, with the strong subsidies from manufacturers, China’s smart speaker shipments in 2019 will exceed 30 million units, and smart wearable device shipments will exceed 300 million units, an increase of more than 50%.Until now, smart speakers still need to be driven by routers and smartphones. A large number of wearable devices are not even connected to the network, and there is no condition for independent use.After talking about “Internet of Everything” for so long, the user stickiness of smart phones cannot be interconnected. Mobile phones are still the first choice for users to access the Internet.Of course, mobile phone manufacturers are also changing.Knowing that Google withdrew the Google Mobile Service (GMS) permission and shut down the Android service ecosystem, Huawei began to build an exclusive ecosystem (Huawei Moblie Service, referred to as HMS).Seemingly passive defense, the identity of the hardware manufacturer is actually used to graft the Internet’s business model.OPPO can’t do the work of “incubating Google”, but it also began to pay attention to the topic of developers and the establishment of ecology.Chen Mingyong has already made clear the position of seizing the entrance to the Internet. OPPO tries to become a window for user application distribution and share dividends with developers through service operations.After all, “selling goods” is a one-shot deal, and mobile phone manufacturers have no plans to hang themselves on a tree, and are trying to do something.In addition to Huawei and OPPO, there are also Xiaomi’s “mobile phone + AIoT” strategy, vivo’s “smart service ecological strategy”, the content is similar.Leading companies are spending a lot of money to make smart phones easier to use and sell, and the trailing companies are slowly losing opportunities.Who can survive depends on the capabilities of the company.But as long as you are alive, you have the opportunity to cut the cake.03 What will the future look like? In the short term, the “death theory” of mobile phones does not hold, so what should it look like?In fact, some answers have been presented.In 2020, while the overall market shipments have remained basically stable, 5G mobile phone shipments have reached 123.5 million units, and only the market share of other products can be squeezed out.2G / 3G mobile phones are no longer the mainstream of the market, so 4G mobile phones are the first to bear the brunt.Right now, 4G and 5G mobile phones have already disappeared from each other. This is probably the essence of “rotten meat in the pot”.Data source: The Institute of Information and Communications Technology, however, the realistic problem is that most manufacturers can launch 4G mobile phones, and few manufacturers can launch 5G mobile phones.According to data from the Institute of Information and Communication Technology, as of 2019, only 5 models of Xiaomi, Huawei, vivo and other companies have launched 5G mobile phones in China, and some manufacturers even launched more than one product.But more manufacturers are still quiet, and there is not a 5G product-drought and drought, floods and floods are not false.Not every manufacturer is an Apple, and you can still have a qualified transcript if you are one year late; of course, they can work backwards to support the 2G / 3G / 4G market in remote regions of the world, but it will be more difficult.Under great pressure, many companies may not be able to survive the spring of 2020, and their market share has gradually become the nourishment of leading companies.The collapse of the fortress will inevitably lead to a new round of talent flow: Huawei, OPPO, and vivo have set up camps. Management has never been able to move in. If they really leave their posts, they ca n’t go to Samsung, Meizu, and Lenovo.It seems Xiaomi is still left with the door of goodwill.But don’t think that Lei Jun is a philanthropist. Xiaomi is Sun Erniang’s restaurant on Cross Slope. Come, don’t expect to fly Huang Tengda: Lu Weibing, who came here two years ago, has changed from “below one person, above 10,000 people” to “Below seven “(seven founders); Wang Xiaoyan, who has arrived today, can only be” distributed “to the sales department, even if he was once” over ten thousand people. “The only pity is probably the routine.From laptops to smartphones, he has too much technical imprint.There are not many technical houses like him who understand both the market and the products.Moreover, OPPO is now stepping up the development of 5G technology. Vivo and Samsung are developing chips to find ways to improve their technology reserves.This is an era of technical employees who will more easily climb to the top of the enterprise.It’s just that he can’t enjoy all of this. Whoever made his former club Lenovo unwilling to give up, failed to give him a “successful” signboard.But do n’t be embarrassed since it ’s a meal, not to mention so many people do n’t even have a chance to ask for a meal.Rather than continue begging along the street, it is better to leave two sentences of relief, and then try your luck in another industry after repacking.After all, most people bear the plaque of “failure”. In the circle, their advantages have no use, such as Li Nan.04 Concluding remarks Ten years ago, a well-known American blog site ReadWriteWeb wrote that the concept of “phone” will die out in the future, including “mobile phones”.Ten years later, home phones may be scarce but not dead, and mobile phone sales are stable at more than 1 billion units a year.It is in the form of a “blog” that has withdrawn from the stage of history many years ago.The industry is now entering the era of stock, but this is not the end of the world.Third-party organizations are still optimistic about the hot sales of products in 2020, users are still concerned about what innovation 5G can bring to mobile phones, and a group of veterans in the mobile phone industry would rather give up the opportunity to be promoted and stay behind: these pieces of information can be seen together in the shortWithin, at least 2020, the mobile battlefield will not disappear.The market has fully digested the production capacity of manufacturers, and users still recognize mobile phones, but they are increasingly tricky. This is the original appearance of the era of stock, and everyone is used to it.Who said that the old phone, the industry “pill”?.

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