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Mystery of Apple iPhone sales in China: Just iPhone 11 sold well, Pro weighs on overall performance

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Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “Baker Street Detective Officer” (ID: bkjtag), author Jia Peilin, 36 氪 Published with permission.The Christmas shopping season is coming. Just as Apple is preparing to show its strength, a data from Credit Suisse has put Apple’s transcript in China into controversy and mystery.Credit Suisse analysts wrote in a report that although China ’s overall smartphone market grew slightly in November, iPhone shipments in the Chinese market during the month fell by 35.4% compared to the same period last year.Analysts said that China ’s iPhone sales in October also fell by 10.3% year-on-year, which means that its sales volume experienced a double-digit percentage decline for the second consecutive month.The analyst also pointed out that since the iPhone 11 series went on the market, total iPhone shipments in China have decreased by 7.4% compared to last year, adding: “We estimate that in the past three months (September to November), IPhone China’s revenue year-on-year decline is greater than 17.5%. “If you look at such data, Apple will undoubtedly suffer a sap.But at the same time, UBS’s data is different.According to UBS’s previous data, benefiting from the iPhone 11’s slightly lower price strategy, the iPhone 11 has achieved better results than the iPhone XR after its release.After the launch of the iPhone XR last year, UBS estimated that its demand for Apple in the Chinese market has increased by 110%.The iPhone 11, which is priced below the iPhone XR for a full 1,000 yuan this year, has increased the demand for the Chinese market by an astonishing 230%.In UBS’s view, the iPhone 11’s hot sale directly gives Apple ample confidence in the Chinese market.Cook ’s iPhone 11 “low price” strategy can be said to have been successful this year. Although UBS data shows that sales of the iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max are even 15% lower than last year, the high pricing of these two phonesIt means that Apple does not have much expectations for its performance.The contrast between UBS and Credit Suisse’s data is so great that it even makes people wonder which statistics are true.According to Apple’s industry chain news, Apple’s sales this year have improved slightly compared to last year.On the day of double 11 alone, the iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro benefited from various subsidies. The “low price” won the favor of more fruit powder and sold a million iPhones.Therefore, even Apple foundries are working overtime.In addition, market research organization TrendForce is quite optimistic about Apple’s sales in the fourth quarter of this year.In its view, Apple will benefit from the hot sales in the Chinese market, its global shipments will increase sharply to 69 million mobile phones, and its global market share will increase to 18.7%, an increase of 6.9% from the previous quarter, surpassing Huawei’s returnThe second throne.Among them, iPhone 11’s third-quarter output growth reached 42%.And Jingdong’s statistics also “confirmed” TrendForce’s optimistic estimate of Apple’s sales: iPhone 11 won the Jingdong Double Eleven single product sales crown, Apple occupied the number one brand sales list, and Huawei Glory retreated.However, this data is based on the crazy price reductions of Apple’s mobile phones in the shopping malls on Double Eleven.Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Tmall all reduced the price of iPhone series mobile phones, especially the iPhone 11 Pro. The iPhone XS series launched last year is no longer high.Taking iPhone 11 as an example, the discounts given by each company during Double Eleven can allow consumers to buy it at a price close to 4,500 yuan, and the iPhone 11 is significantly higher than last year’s basic iPhone XR, which naturally attracted many people to pay.Some speculations about the data fight: If you look at the platform data given by the major institutions and platforms above, the first impression is that the data is fighting.The question that arises is: How has China’s sales volume since the launch of the new iPhone?However, if you carefully analyze the expression of several data, you will find that the data that looks like a fight also has its rationality.First of all, Credit Suisse’s data is: iPhone shipments in the Chinese market decreased by 35.4% compared with the same period last year.The iPhone here refers to the full range of Apple phones.UBS’s data is: Benefiting from the iPhone 11’s slightly lower price strategy, the iPhone 11 has achieved better results than the iPhone XR after its release.Note that UBS data only mentions the comparison between iPhone 11, iPhone XR.From the price point of view, the iPhone 11 starts at 5,499 yuan, and the iPhone XR released last year started at 6,499 yuan, a difference of as much as 1,000 yuan.You know, the biggest notch of the iPhone XR last year was the price of more than 6000 yuan, which is still only a single camera configuration.Therefore, the iPhone 11 sales data is better than the iPhone XR, which is logical.Relatively speaking, the iPhone 11 Pro and Max, which are positioned in the high-end market, have encountered Waterloo.Not only in China, analysts from Rosenblatt Securities have released a report that compared to the XS and XS Max of the same period last year, the overall sales of the iPhone 11 Pro series fell by 15%.So from this point it can be seen that iPhone 11 sales may indeed be better than last year’s iPhone XR performance, but the drag of the iPhone 11 Pro has led to the overall decline of the iPhone in the Chinese market.Secondly, the data of the Double 11 released by major platforms is only the data on the day of Double 11 or one of the phases, and it cannot represent the whole of November.Coupled with the subsidies of the major platforms, it is more likely that consumers ’enthusiasm for the iPhone 11 will be concentrated during the Double 11 shopping season, and at other times it will be cold.Based on the above analysis, we can roughly speculate that the iPhone’s performance in the Chinese market is indeed declining year by year. Especially in the face of the high-end strategy of domestic mobile phones and the arrival of the 5G tide, Apple’s hard days may continue..