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Squeeze out the water, how long can the new energy vehicle “virtual fire” burn?

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Editor’s note: This article is from Krypton 36 “Future Automotive Daily” (micro-channel public number ID: auto-time), Author: Terence Lee Nan.Author | Li Zinan editor | Wu Yan burned a “virtual fire” for two years. New energy vehicles, once thought to light up the cold winter of the auto market, gradually extinguished after advancing all the way.According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the “China Automobile Association”), in October this year, the sales of new energy vehicles fell to 75,000 vehicles for the fourth consecutive month, a year-on-year decline of 45.6%.In the first 10 months of this year, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles rose by only 10% year-on-year, and whether the annual sales volume can maintain a positive growth is still unknown.What is even more disturbing is that even in the current sales data, there is no shortage of “water injection”.On October 16, He Xiaopeng, Chairman of Xiaopeng Automobile, publicly stated on social media that there are only about 100,000 new energy vehicles sold to real consumers in China, which is “not much different” from Tesla’s US sales in the first three quarters of this year..Wang Yongqing, General Manager of SAIC-GM, also gave the same “sensational” data in an interview with the media: “There are only a few hundred thousand individual buyers, and the rest are sold to the B-end travel market.” The authenticity of sales was questionedAt the same time, the demand structure of new energy vehicles is also highly controversial.Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Federation, told Future Auto Daily (ID: auto-time) that although the demand for the B-side travel market is strong, it can only digest a part of new energy vehicles. New energy vehicles still need to seek breakthroughs in the individual user market.The concept of “real sales” has diverged. There are divergent opinions in the industry on how many new energy vehicles have been sold.Similar to the pessimistic judgment of industry leaders, the data of authoritative institutions are not optimistic.China Insurance Regulatory Commission ’s recently released strong traffic insurance data shows that from January to October this year, the cumulative amount of new energy passenger vehicles on the road was 713,000, compared with 947,000 new energy vehicles previously released by the China Automobile Industry Association.The difference was as high as 234,000.Among them, the ownership of 371,000 new energy vehicles is “individual”, accounting for 52% of the total; the ownership of 135,000 vehicles is “units”, accounting for 19%; another 207,000 new energy vehiclesOwnership of car insurance is “unknown”, accounting for 29%.This means that only about half of the new energy vehicles actually delivered to the hands of individual consumers.In the opinion of Xu Haidong, the assistant secretary general of the China Automobile Association, it is not surprising that there is a difference between the wholesale sales volume and the insurance volume due to the diversification of automobile sales channels. “Under normal circumstances, this difference is mainly based on dealer inventory data.”However, after all, the distributors’ inventory capacity is limited. “If the difference between the wholesale sales volume and the insurance volume is too large, the reason is unknown.”Insiders of a joint venture car company told Future Auto Daily that what Wang Yongqing referred to as “real sales” was only about 100,000 units, in fact, because the industry had divergent views on the concept of “real sales”.”From the manufacturer’s point of view, the wholesale sales data is reliable, but if you want to know the market’s acceptance of new energy vehicles, the wholesale sales data is not enough.” The industry insiders explained that in the public data, the China Automobile AssociationThe most authoritative data is the wholesale sales data released and the terminal insurance data developed by CAIC.In the non-public data, the number of vehicles on the vehicle and the number of certificates are also used as reference standards.Among these four kinds of data, the wholesale sales data provided by auto manufacturers is the largest. “This data is the data that manufacturers sell to dealers. Whether dealers can sell their cars is another matter.”Compared with sales data, the insurance volume is closer to the actual situation of the new energy vehicle market.Cui Dongshu believes that the reference value of the four data is different.Among them, the wholesale sales data can accurately reflect the revenue of car companies, the insurance data represents the number of cars that are actually on the road, and the number of licenses can better reflect the regional market conditions.Among them, the closest to real sales is the number of vehicle certifications. “The number of certifications determines how much new energy subsidies an enterprise can get.”Regarding the mysterious “unknown part” in the insurance volume of new energy vehicles, Cui Dongshu believes that most of these vehicles should be sold to car finance leasing companies, and some are “unknown”.There is a huge difference between the sales data of “holding a borrowed iron ball and weighing the weight” and the data on the insurance volume, which is common among major car companies.From January to October this year, Chery New Energy sold 69,800 units, with an insurance volume of 34,000 units; Geely Automobile’s new energy vehicles sold 108,000 units during the same period, with only 53,000 vehicles.Even for SAIC-GM-Wuling and Changan New Energy vehicles with relatively little “moisture”, the gap between sales and SAIC reached 9,100 and 1,900 vehicles, respectively.From the perspective of penetration rate, as of the first half of this year, China’s new energy vehicle ownership was about 3.44 million, traditional fuel vehicle ownership was 250 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was less than 1.4%.An industry insider from a traditional car company told Future Auto Daily that behind the dispute over sales of new energy vehicles, there is still a lack of confidence in new energy vehicle companies themselves.He believes that the market’s acceptance of new energy vehicles is very complicated, and the conclusions obtained after careful study will only be “more secure.”In addition to the new energy vehicle demand caused by new energy subsidies and fuel vehicle license plates, there are very few users who truly recognize new energy vehicles.Regarding the industry’s “digital game” on new energy sales, He Xiaopeng lamented: “We often say to be bigger and stronger, but just like net weight and gross weight, holding the borrowed iron ball weighs the weight, and the more you get behind,There will be more questions. “He Xiaopeng Weibo screenshot He Xiaopeng pointed out that there are two main ways to” inject water “into electric vehicle sales.One is to sell to a financial leasing company for online car rental; the other is to “left hand down right hand” and sell the car to a travel company closely related to the car company.The usual approach is that a new energy company establishes or shares a travel company and sells its new energy vehicles to its own travel company.In 2016, Xu Changming, the director of the Resource Development Department of the National Information Center, publicly questioned the “virtual fire” of new energy vehicle sales.He believes that there is a nearly double gap between the sales of new energy vehicles in China and the number of licensed vehicles in the first 10 months of 2015, and he suspects that behind the “data black hole” of up to 70,000 vehicles, it is likely that car companies dismantled their batteries after fake sales.Fraudulence of reselling profit.At that time, some new energy vehicle companies adopted various methods such as licensed vehicles without cars, vehicles without electricity, inconsistent logos, and idle vehicles to obtain state subsidies.Recently, Zhejiang Province has been exposed to a number of “electric car cemeteries” where abandoned new energy vehicles are parked.According to the Zhejiang Daily, more than 2,000 shared electric vehicles are stored in a parking lot, most of which have a range of only 100 kilometers, and some vehicles have a range of only 80 kilometers.”Electric vehicle cemetery” source: screenshot of Zhejiang Daily video An industry insider said in an interview with Zhejiang Daily that the technical requirements and production costs of vehicles in the “electric vehicle cemetery” are not high, and the technical parameters are only better than the state subsidiesThe standard is a little higher, “mostly from subsidies.”Building a car is a jog. Even in the highest volume data that is closest to the real situation, the amount actually delivered to individual consumers still needs to be “discounted”.From January to October this year, the cumulative amount of BYD’s new energy vehicles reached 159,000, but only 86,000 were delivered to individual users, accounting for 54.3% of total sales.BAIC New Energy ranked second with 73,500 vehicles, of which 18,600 were delivered to individual users, accounting for only 25.4%. Ownership was 18,000, and another 36,000 were unknown delivery targets.Bu Hongsheng, assistant general manager of BAIC New Energy, has publicly stated that the company’s private purchase of products and unit platform purchases and leasing ratios are 3 to 7.According to Sohu News, among the top ten new energy brand sales, Changan Automobile’s sales to B-end travel customers accounted for 62%, and Geely and BAIC New Energy respectively accounted for 56% and 48%.According to the data of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the regional operating characteristics of new energy vehicles in 2019 are that rental and leasing account for 30%, and unit users account for 20%.This means that only half of the users of new energy vehicles are private cars.However, Cui Dongshu believes that such a situation is not surprising when new energy vehicles are in the period of demand structure adjustment.”In the 1990s, 80% of our cars were sold to taxi companies and public institutions, and the proportion is now normal,” he told Future Car Daily.He Xiaopeng, who repeatedly “bombed” the true sales of new energy vehicles, also said that most of the current sales concentrated on the B side is a real performance, but consumer demand is rapidly detonating.With the joint efforts of many manufacturers, the cake of the new energy vehicle market will become larger and larger, “I personally think that spring may be behind and not in 2020″.”Tesla is a 16-year company. In the eleventh year, it achieved sales of about 120,000 units.” He said in an interview with the media, “So building a car is a jog, it must be a business of ten or twenty years.”The industry insiders said that new energy vehicles still need to improve product power and cost-effectiveness in order to open the personal consumer market.Even if the current market demand for B-side mobility is strong, it can only swallow part of the capacity of new energy vehicles. If new energy vehicles want to prosper, they must be recognized by individual users.Sources of the operating conditions of some shared mobility companies: Future Car Daily. In addition, the shared mobility industry is ushered in a shuffle in 2019. The road song bursts. Mercedes-Benz’s Car2go exits the Chinese market. Many B-end mobility companies face operational difficulties.Xu Haidong believes that after the subsidy of new energy subsidies, the price of new energy vehicles will increase only marginally, and the purchase cost of individual users will not increase significantly, but the B-end travel market will bear more purchase costs after subsidy subsidies and increase operating pressure.”When the proportion of individual users of new energy vehicles reaches more than 80%, the new energy vehicle market is considered mature.” Cui Dongshu said, “As far as the current situation is concerned, new energy vehicles still have a long way to go.”