close
AI

Now is the best time for Meituan to acquire Didi

07149888-15d6-11ea-bb7c-aaaa00151f43.jpg

This article starting simultaneously Artesyn Technologies, Author: Prophet Church (micro-channel public number ID: gudaolundao).Lead: Buy a future?This article is divided into six parts, and I hope to inspire everyone: the ladder of the United States Mission, about the relationship between Didi and the past model of the United States Mission; the potential environment of the acquisition, what kind of situation Didi is facing; completely killing hungerWhat is the impact of Didi ’s hungry? “Orange is born in Huainan.” Didi ’s profitability will be stronger in the system.The deep benefits of Didi; written at the end, talk about some basic conditions to achieve acquisitions.01. Meituan ’s Titian Meituan Comments-W (HK: 03690) The rise in market value / valuation in the past is due to its ability to sell new and new businesses and evolve its business in a gradual manner, similar to Disney ’s business ladder.(Disney’s business ladder) The so-called “sky ladder” development model includes four levels: brewing growth and finding solutions for future growth; testing business models and testing the commercial viability of business ideas; replication has confirmed that growth is achieved by creating business measuresPotential; gain profit, maximize potential and manage landslide business by releasing cumulative growth.Meituan eventually ran out of three major businesses-“shopping, hotel and tourism” (this should be two businesses, group buying and OTA), food delivery, new business and other (Mobike, food management system, food miscellaneousRetail business)-If you draw a ladder diagram, this is how it looks.(Meituan’s business ladder) The local life of Internet companies is still inseparable from the category of “clothing, food, living, playing”.Clothing, it is clear that no one can compete with Ali.The richness of online shopping products, the online shopping interaction brought by Taobao Live, and the new retail of Intime Department Store are unmatched by the outside world.Food, which is a good thing for Meituan. The strategy of “Food + Platform” shows the power of “Food”, which is reflected in the penetration of merchants (invincible for group purchase, 65.8% of take-out share), andPublic comment as the right to speak at the entrance to dining.Live, book this hotel online. In the past two or three years, the outside world “only knows Han, regardless of Wei Jin”, only knows where the old Ctrip is going, and the stand-alone single hotel OYO, but it does not know the Meituan hotel. FactsIn the first half of 2018, the nights of Meituan Hotel exceeded the sum of Ctrip.Play, divided into life play and travel play, life play mainly occurs in the group purchase to shop business, such as a friend to go to the public to comment on a recent room to the explosion of a secret room escape shop; travel play is the destination of OTA travel, such as 138 yuanHuaibei Ski Resort tour with group tour (including snow tickets, skis, insurance, round trip, reflecting the cost-effective, not advertising).It can be said that “food, living and playing” has forged the US group (for the specific timeline, refer to the business ladder diagram above).But today, Meituan must have a new growth curve, because the bottleneck of high-speed development is approaching, Meituan has eliminated / integrated all its competitors in the group purchase store; the market share in the takeaway field is 65.8%, and 721 monopoly patterns are now available. OTAIn terms of hotel room nights more than Ctrip.Several large divisions do the first, and future growth is based on penetration rate / commission rate / ARPU growth, which can make steady money but will not have the explosive power of business growth.The few things a company can’t escape are several things: taxes, death, and the ceiling.What is the ceiling of the Meituan Group, which has to support the new growth curve?In the new business, I am not optimistic about the baby elephant fresh and shared charging treasure business. At present, I think the most important thing is the online car rental.The online car-riding business needs to be established. It is not a scorching fire. The 70 major cities in the country have gone to the bottom, but they are seeking mergers and acquisitions.02. Potential environment for acquisitions In 2019, the sharing economy has fallen to the lowest point, even lower than the lowest point.Uber’s dream has awakened. Before the IPO, the expected valuation was adjusted from 120 billion U.S. dollars to 84.2 billion. Even so, the stock price still fell dead, and the current market value is $ 494.WeWork’s dream has also awakened. The IPO valuation will be reduced from 47 billion US dollars to less than 20 billion US dollars.This made Sun Zhengyi unable to sit still, “The lower valuation affects the net value of the Vision Fund. Isn’t this hitting my old Sun’s face,” Sun Zhengyi Effect (PS: Great Miracle, you want $ 50 million, I giveYou killed 500 million rivals) ‘Can the cattle still blow?’ So finally WeWork suspended listing.The fall of the banner of the sharing economy has a great impact on Didi. According to the media The Information: Some existing shareholders of Didi want to withdraw at a price much lower than the 57 billion U.S. dollar valuation at the last round of financing.Selling the shares, citing people familiar with the matter, “A Chinese investor sold some Didi shares at a $ 40 billion valuation, and another U.S. investor sold Didi shares at a $ 43 billion valuation, but did not findHome “.An era has passed, and the market is expected to flip!In the past, the business model generally expected by online car hire was bitter first, then sweet, and burned money to kill opponents, and cash flow could be rolled over until it was replaced by a new species (all the new Internet economy is burning money).Investors later discovered that Mount Everest and Chogori are expected to stand upside down from reality.The first wave of money burned far more than you thought.But they encountered regulatory iron fists or a new round of competitors.For Didi, as the benchmark company uber continues to fall, its valuation pressure is huge.(Uber stock price trend) Not only is the external environment facing challenges, Didi’s own operations are also encountering problems, of course, the two are not clear.Didi’s most profitable business is a ride-hailing vehicle, with no hard overhead of vehicles and personnel, and strong profitability.Before going offline, the daily order volume of the downwind car is about 2 million, which contributed a net profit of 800 million yuan in 2017.Yes, the tailwind is offline, and two tragedies happened last year that caused it to go offline.Driver auditing is a common problem for online ride-hailing (Somali war criminals can open uber). Didi is particularly difficult here because it has no other business that can generate a lot of cash flow to support “self-operation”. The business logic is that you can askHigh quality driver team, but you have to spend more money.Therefore, Didi is very passive in the face of supervision. Recently, the Shanghai Transportation Management Department has added Didi Travel (including the US group taxi) to the blacklist of serious mistrust.The management of Didi drivers is very difficult. The essence of the problem is that although the job is not decent, the driver is psychologically superior to the passengers. The economic foundation determines the superstructure.(Or did not drive) passengers just have a sense of superiority, so personality will be indulgent a lot.You see, the takeaway rider riding an electric car will not indulge our little white-collar workers in the China World Trade Organization. Why should we be embarrassed?Then there are external challenges: Meituan planted two nails in Shanghai and Nanjing to accumulate energy; Geely Automobile invested in a new energy network to hire a car Cao Cao; and the “Avenger Alliance” (aggregation taxi) carried by the high-tech map of Ali, including ChinaSpecial car, Shouqi car, Sunshine trip, AA trip, etc.Didi is really hard, and I don’t see any turning point in the short to medium term.So what is the reason for the US group to shoot, can its strength allow it?03. Are you hungry?Is Meituan defeated hungry in the local life field, Trustdata data: The shares of Meituan and Mehmet (including the starving star) in Q3 2018 are 60.1% and 37% respectively; Meituan and Mehmet in Q3 2019The share of Mo (including Hungry Mo Xingxuan) is 65.8% and 32.2%, respectively.(Comparison of the market share of Meituan and Hungry?) Even so, if Ali’s father is hungry and willing to continue to burn money, it will still cast a shadow on the profitability of Meituan.To completely eliminate uncertainty, relying on the membership system (the average number of purchases by member users is three times higher than that of non-member users), store red envelopes and full reduction game adjustments are definitely effective, but the short-term effect will not be too great.Because these things on the bright side can be copied at the nanometer level.The same operation method, no one is more noble than others, and the effect will not make much difference.It ’s as if you are hungry? The share is 4.8% lower, but Ali ’s overall local living services revenue still increased by 36% in the third quarter, and the industry is still rising.(It’s the same word horse) (It’s the same word horse, who is more noble than others?) But it is different when there is an online car. At that time, the network effect of Meituan’s local life service will be great.Some investors must say, “You are here again, only the word” network effect “, can you be more grounded and talk about it in a more general way?”Okay, let’s talk a little more.With the Meituan APP after the online car booking, I am afraid it is second only to the WeChat APP.WeChat uses it every day for work and life. You will also use it for high frequency: “Take a taxi to the company in the morning, take out at noon, check food at night, watch movies after eating, and open a room after watching movies.”~ “; For other life services in Long Tail, you can cut your head and find a water and electricity locksmith here.At that time, Meituan was the only super app and enjoyed the VIP treatment of mobile desktops, as shown below.Really one day, would you be completely hungry?04. “Orange is the raw orange in Huainan.” The same orange tree grows in different places and produces different fruits.Meituan can greatly increase Didi’s profitability.You know, the user attributes of the local life business are the same, which means that traffic can be reused.What I said above is a typical day for a friend of mine, “Take a taxi to work in the morning, take out at noon, check food in the evening, finish watching a movie, open a room after watching a movie ~” If each service is scattered in different companies, thenEveryone needs to find their own traffic.And without integrating services, even if you find traffic, the churn rate will be high, and user loyalty is impossible to talk about.This thing is not just a simple aggregation. When you use more services, more data is generated. Algorithmic recommendations based on accurate portraits will make your life more convenient.It is for this reason that you can see that global uber, Southeast Asia Grab, are multi-format integrated local life services such as car rental, takeaway, etc. The specific combination varies from place to place.(Uber’s official website) Secondly, the biggest competitor is gone, and profitability naturally rises.Didi: “Who is my biggest opponent? Stand up.”Meituan: “I’ve seen Didi Brother below, Didi makes life better”.The reason why Meituan is listed as Didi’s biggest competitor is because of capital considerations.Last year Cao Cao’s special car was also very fierce, but this year Cao Cao’s special car investor Fang Gili’s car industry is not good, even if you want to engage in action, the strength is not allowed.There is no need to say more about the other defeated cars in Shenzhou. Lao Lu’s energy is devoted to Ruixing Coffee. The special car may want to do things a little later.If Meituan acquires Didi, the benefits of the business structure are obvious and a new growth curve is found, but this is only the benefit on the bright side.05. Those who do not seek the world Chen Qingran, “Proposal for the Second Move of the Capital to Establish Fanfan” has a sentence, “Those who do not seek the world, do not seek for a while. Those who do not seek the overall situation, do not seek for a while.”This means that you must look at the issue in a long-term perspective and cannot consider it for long-term interests. You must not be able to make short-term plans. You must also look at the issue comprehensively.The acquisition of Didi can not only increase a growth curve for Meituan, but also strengthen the platform’s capabilities to strengthen its stores, OTC and takeaway businesses; it can also strategically position driverless vehicles so that its business foundation (human performance) will not be subverted.In the future, self-driving cars will inevitably replace online ride-hailing, Google’s Waymo, and Musk’s Tesla, which are great threats to traditional car factories and online ride-hailing. Fortunately, companies like Google are difficult to come in and allow foreign companies to control the Pentium,This is obviously impossible with driverless vehicles.If China has a driverless company, Didi is possible.And without driverless technology, Meituan is very likely to become a failed company.You know, the rider is an important part of the process of fulfilling the contract by Meituan Takeaway. It can be said that it is a fixed cost (labor costs are still rising).If the era of driverlessness comes, Meituan’s compliance cost will inevitably be much higher than driverless, which will not have to incur labor costs.Meituan needs to break its own balance with Didi to make its ecology more powerful, and to apply a popular saying recently, establish a dissipative structure to counter the increase of entropy.06. There is not much money written on the final US group account, but this is not an obstacle. Like the last merger review, you can exchange shares or add shares.The current market value of Meituan is US $ 76.4 billion, and Didi is expected to be worth US $ 40 billion (uber is US $ 50 billion).When talking with outsiders, he felt that the biggest obstacle may be Ali in the capital side. After all, the US Mission has Didi is too bad for being hungry.I deliberately checked it, Ali’s right to speak in Didi is not large, and currently holds 5% of Didi’s shares (September 2017 was 4.198 billion yuan sold to Softbank).In the end, I haven’t got any inside information in this article. Based on observations made by various Internet new economy companies, I hope to inspire everyone..