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2 billion for 10 million traffic, can online education “burn” out of the hegemon?

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Editor’s Note: This article is from the WeChat public account “Yiou.com” (ID: i-yiou), author Ding Shuyin, 36氪 authorized to publish.For online education companies, the summer vacation of 2019 is full of gunpowder.With the school and the school, the counseling and homework to help the three online K12 network school as the representative of the company, a total of billions of dollars, nearly 10 companies invested 40-500 million yuan in the summer vacation marketing activities, online education track, aAn unprecedented battle for traffic broke out.From the year of the US group, the hungry for the takeaway fight, the worship of the bicycles of the Bay, theo, the online payment disputes of Alipay and WeChat payment, and the short video battle between the headlines and Tencent in 2018…In the Internet industry, traffic competition is not uncommon.In the education industry, which is always known as the word “slow”, such a large-scale and fierce battle is rare.The last battle for traffic in the education industry also dates back to the education O2O subsidy war around 2014.This time, the online education flow war will be the same as before, only one chicken feathers left?Traffic competition: 2 billion inputs for 10 million entries For education companies, summer vacation is a time of contention.In the summer of 2019, the flow of online education companies has been much more dramatic – the atmosphere of not fighting is very rampant.The war started in May, and the coaching was the first to launch the “49 yuan summer system class.”Immediately after the homework, I launched a “50-yuan special course for junior high school summer classes”, and the head of the team launched a “first month free and 200 yuan trial class” activity.In June, the future of the school’s learning and thinking network school was “forced to fight” and launched the “49 yuan summer trial class.”It is rumored that on June 27th, many senior executives of the Good Future Group came to study and the summer school audition class started the mobilization meeting.The mobilization speech on the scene came out: “This is the third key battle in the 17 years since the development of learning and thinking. Just like the dripping fast, Alipay hit WeChat, Mobai hit theo, this time, we have to follow the counselingWaiting for nine online education companies to play together.” Immediately afterwards, the online K12 enterprise represented by the school and the school, the tutoring and homework help, started in the channels of friends, vibrato, subway, building elevators, variety shows and so on.Comprehensive traffic competition.It is reported that in the summer of only three months, the market investment of Xuesisi School is about 1 billion yuan, and the counseling and homework help are between 400 million and 500 million yuan, while the entire online K12 track has more than 1000 market launches per day.Ten thousand yuan.Yiou Education learned that from May to July this year, homework, 51Talk, 猿 counseling, and Xuesi School were advertising in Hunan Satellite TV. In just 2 months, these online education companies invested more than 1 in Hunan Satellite TV.100 million yuan.For a good future, adding this traffic battle is somewhat “have to be”.From the good financial report, the growth rate of its revenue in FY18 has been maintained at around 60%. In the fiscal year of 2019, the growth rate of revenue began to decline, eventually falling to around 30%.In order to maintain the expansion speed, the transformation online model has become one of its key strategies.“For the expansion plan of future capacity, we have to realize what our strategy is, whether we choose more and more penetration and expansion under the line or choose to do big online education business? There is no doubt that we have chosen online models and dual divisions.Mode, good future CFO Luo Wei said.It is understood that in the Q3 quarter of FY 2019, the good future once shut down 19 offline campuses.On the transition line, it is inevitable to compete with the original online education companies. Counseling is the strongest opponent in the future.A middle-level group of the Good Future Group once said to Yiou Education: “During the summer vacation, the performance of the counseling was too good, and the user acquisition was the best for their family.” According to industry statistics, only learning and thinking, 猿 counseling and homework to help the three, bringing 10 million entrance students.The battle for traffic portals is actually a big oligarchy. Whether the billions of inputs can “burn” out of the online education track is still unknown, but some people in the industry believe that the school and the homework helpThere should be such a push, and then it will be even more crazy. For online education, this rhythm is correct.Recently, Hou Jianbin, the founder of homework, said at the opening ceremony of the second phase of the Chongling Plan that the summer vacation in 2019 is very radical for online education, but there is no radical and conservative, and everything must be tied to cognition.With a radius of cognition, it operates steadily within the circle.This summer, the total number of summer jobs for homework is 2 million, but the increase brought by delivery is only 40%. More growth comes from self-owned users and traffic conversion.The homework is to start the summer campaign with the calculation of overall cost and organizational capabilities.”Online education is not fundamentally different from other Internet industries. In the end, it is the content e-commerce model. In the end, it will be the outcome of the winner-take-all.” Shuffle acceleration: Star company’s layoffs and mergers and acquisitions actually online education trackThe war has already begun, but this summer, the speed of industry reshuffle has greatly accelerated.In the second half of 2018, the prelude to shuffling was opened from one-on-one and one-on-one “thunder”.Immediately after the end of the year, Hujiang, which had not completed its listing, was exposed to large-scale layoffs and executives’ collective salary cuts. The main reason behind this was the huge losses.By 2019, the reshuffle had expanded to more star companies.In July, China Ping An Group strategically invested in iTutorGroup, Tianyuechao information showed that Dou Wenwei, who was suspected to have served as an executive at Ping An Group, became the actual controlling shareholder of iTutorGroup with a 60% stake.In August, the light tutor and sea breeze education, which is a good future investment, announced strategic cooperation.However, industry rumors, sea breeze education has been incorporated into the light tutor, and will be mass layoffs.Some media believe that the business of light tutoring and sea breeze education does not completely coincide. The biggest opportunity for cooperation between the two sides is likely to come from the common future of the common shareholders.In addition, DaDa, which is also a good future investment, has been exposed to a good future acquisition.According to Tianyue’s information, Good Future has held a 31% stake in DaDa’s parent company, Shanghai Zhuozan Education Technology Co., Ltd. through Xinxin Education Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd., and became the actual controller.There are three reasons for a series of online education star enterprises. The first reason is that online education companies have a bad financial model, especially online one-to-one business. Loss has become a recognized phenomenon in the industry.Among them, the excessive sales expenses for the acquisition of customers is an important reason for the loss. The head enterprises are investing more and more in the brand. The excessive investment makes the cost of the other online education companies rise, and eventually they are dragged.collapse.According to QuestMobile’s “2019 Online Education Half-Year Report”, Q1 in 2019, the good future of online + offline mode, New Oriental, the cost of customers is 249 yuan, 202 yuan, respectively, but the Shangde organization on the pure line, 51Talk,The cost of obtaining customers was as high as 4,970 yuan and 821 yuan respectively.The cost of getting a few thousand dollars is not a secret in the industry.Long Xiangxu, the founder of Longbo, said: “Education and training have always been service-oriented, so the cost of service is very high, especially the one-to-one model. At the same time, the user’s repurchase rate is low, and it is always necessary to acquire new customers.It is not easy to have profits. The repurchase rate is related to brand awareness. Brands depend on quality control. However, relying on human services cannot guarantee quality control, and it is impossible to structurally reduce sales expenses.” This year, the main K12 class classWith whom to learn to go public, become the first profitable online education company.After the live broadcast technology matures, the advantages of the dual-master mode and the high gross profit margin of the large class are once again highlighted.In this summer’s summer traffic war, the school and the school, the coaching, the homework, and so on all promoted the large class network mode; among them, the coaching was closed one-on-one business last year.Second, the tightening of the capital environment has intensified the speed of shuffling.”2018-2019 China Internet Education Investment and Financing Research Report” shows that in the first two quarters of 2019, there were 160 online education investment events, the financing amount was 13.1 billion, and the financing amount decreased by 33%.At the same time, money flowed to the head business.Since December last year, 猿 counseling, head-to-door 1 and 1 box technology (work box) have still completed more than 100 million US dollars in financing.Those online education companies that have not obtained financing are somewhat dangerous. “The sea breeze education is being merged, and behind it is capital-driven. The pace of reshuffle has obviously accelerated.” An industry insider told Yiou Education.Third, the regulation of online education policies has become stricter.Since the end of last year, with the offline agencies requesting the simultaneous regulation of online institutions, there have been four normative policies on online education.In July this year, the Ministry of Education and other six departments issued the “Implementation Opinions on Standardizing Off-Changing Online Training”, which detailed the curriculum content, teaching arrangements, and teacher qualification certificates for online education. The stage of online education enterprise brutal growth is thoroughlyAt the end, industry consolidation and shuffling were further promoted.The future pattern: A wave of bankruptcies will come?“The ecology of the Internet-based platform is seen as a new world. It restructures the basic logic of business with higher efficiency and new consumer relationships.” Wu Xiaobo, a famous financial writer, once explained the Internet as the business world today.The impact.The pattern of online education and other Internet industries will not be much different. In the foreseeable future, each track of online education will also present a very few oligopoly.Zhang Lijun, a partner at the Innovation Workshop, said that the current reshuffle integration of online education is mainly in the K12 online education field. This is the first wave, and the integrated shuffling process will last for 2-3 years.The founder of another well-known FA institution in the education industry believes that there will be 2-3 head enterprises in the K12 online education field in the future. Online education may usher in the collapse of large-scale enterprises. The final result is “Off,Cooperation and unemployment.”However, from the perspective of the industry, online education is still a broad market. The data from Ai Media Consulting shows that the online education market is growing year by year and is expected to reach 453.8 billion yuan in 2020.Recently, the 44th “Statistical Report on the Development of China’s Internet Network” released by CNNIC shows that in the first half of 2019, the number of online education users in all Internet industries grew the fastest, with a half-year growth rate of 15.5%.In the face of a broad market, traffic competition will become a long-term battle for online education companies.From the enrollment this fall to the summer of next year, the market will only continue to increase, and the competition will be more intense. So where are the outlets for many online education companies?Perhaps just as the live broadcast technology matures to bring the profit of the big class, with the development of artificial intelligence technology, online education will usher in a larger imagination, and there will be a big battle at that time.Of course, this war has already begun..