Front line | How much can this iPhone sell?

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At 1 am on September 11th, Beijing time, Apple will hold a new autumn release conference and release a new iPhone.This is Apple’s most watched conference every year.According to Reuters, many Wall Street analysts predicted the sales of the new iPhone. The conclusion is that there may be as many as 200 million units, mainly from iPhone users with changing needs. Although the impact of trade friction, a considerable part of sales will come from China..It is widely expected that Apple will launch three new iPhones, an upgraded version of the iPhone XR, iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max last year.New machine processors, system upgrades, increased number of cameras, the possibility to use a gradient color body, and will launch a video streaming service to compete with Netflix, Disney and so on.A number of analysts said that Apple currently has about 900 million active iPhones around the world, and since the iPhone X was released in 2017, Apple’s new machine sales are weak, and the relatively tight price control may stimulate the wait-and-see.The needs of the user of the attitude.Reuters quoted Bank of America analysts as saying: “Users holding old mobile phones may be upgraded, we will continue to regard 2020 fiscal year as an ‘old-for-new’ iPhone cycle, while FY 2021 is a 5G-drivenCycle.” It is widely predicted that Apple will not launch 5G iPhone this year. Therefore, the fiscal year 2020 (419 4th – 2020) will not be driven by the 5G exchange.The first 5G iPhone will be released next fall, and its main sales cycle will be in FY 2021 and beyond.Bank of America analysts estimate that as many as 200 million iPhone 6 or earlier models may be upgraded to replace the new iPhone.Investment bank Wedbush analysts forecast a slightly lower number, iPhone sales will reach about 180 million in the next 12 months, China will have about 60 million to 70 million consumers to upgrade.According to Wedbush’s report, according to its recent survey of supply chains in Asia, the agency believes that Apple’s supply chain plans to supply 75 million mobile phones in the early days of the iPhone 11 series, a slight increase from the same period last year.Although the tariff on the iPhone will increase from 10% to 15% from December 15 this year, Apple has not increased its price in order to boost sales.The three iPhones start at the same price as last year.The names of the three iPhones have different predictions.One popular prediction is that the three iPhones are named iPhone11 (or iPhone11R), iPhone11 Pro and iPhone11 Pro Max.The iPhone 11 is priced at $749, the iPhone 11 Pro is priced at $999, and the iPhone Pro Max is priced at $1,099, which is basically the same as last year’s price.After a sudden decline in iPhone sales in FY 2019, Apple’s pricing began to be conservative.According to IDC data, Apple’s 2019 first three quarters (fourth quarter of 2018 – second quarter of 2019), all double-digit decline.The reason is that in addition to weak product innovation, high pricing is also an important reason. Sales in emerging markets such as China and India have fallen sharply, and developed markets such as Japan and Europe have also been affected.In order to boost sales, Apple has to launch promotions in disguised price cuts in multiple markets.In the prediction of the new iPhone, the outside world is generally not optimistic about its product and technological innovation, but its price remains unchanged, and it is expected to increase the attractiveness to consumers, thereby boosting the weak sales.Header image from Apple