Wisdom analysis | followed by Gaochun Capital Research


Text | Liu Yiming Through chances various, through all vicissitudes, we make our way. – Aeneid, taken from Graham’s “smart investor” Buffett often hangs on his lips: If a stock I don’t want to hold tenYear, then I don’t want to hold it for a minute.Such an investment philosophy applies to traditional industries at maturity, but it does not necessarily make money from a variety of Internet stocks.As a representative of value investing, Berkshire Hathaway did not start building Internet stocks until 2016, and bought a more certainty of Apple.The uncertainty of Internet stocks is high, and new companies will emerge at any time to subvert existing giants.Baidu is just the case. Because of the cold winter in the online advertising industry, the medical advertising scandal, the failure of O2O strategy attempts, and the anti-byte beating, the market value of Baidu has shrunk by 60% in one year. This is the majority of buyers and sellers.Analysts are hard to predict.Investing in technology stocks requires new approaches. Crossing the primary and secondary markets may be one of the most efficient solutions, as evidenced by Hillhouse Capital’s attempts in this area.The investment scope of Gaochun Capital is very broad, focusing on the technology Internet and medical fields, but it also covers a wide range of industries such as finance, education and consumption.Today, Gaochun Capital manages 60 billion US dollars and has developed into the largest fund in Asia.Gaochun straddles the primary and secondary markets. From the earliest stages of seed investment, venture capital, PE investment, listed company investment, and mergers and acquisitions, this authorization is very flexible.In April of this year, Zhang Lei said at the Goldman Sachs Asia Forum that he prefers companies with “soccer team culture” because of the “wolf culture” or “home culture” companies, because these companies have division of labor and tactics.How to win under fair rules.He also revealed that Gaochun Capital has 45 employees.Gao Wei manages $60 billion in assets.The original video is visible: This model is easier to see the development of technology because there are enough projects in the primary market.Trends can also be used to make large fund sizes.More importantly, due to the huge scale and status, for those controversial projects, Gaochun’s investment has a pricing role.An investor said to 36, for example, a company like Zan, because of the purchase of Tencent and Gaochun, has a great influence on the pricing of the secondary market, and has valuations of other SaaS companies still in the primary market.Pull action.Tier 1 market valuations tend to refer to the pricing of mature companies in the secondary market. If sorghum has a layout on a certain track, it will be the biggest beneficiary.At the same time, the rich asset class also makes Gaochun’s ability to resist risks in the market stronger.36氪 Tracked the positions of sorghum in the US stocks against Internet companies in the past three years.The SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) requires stock management assets to disclose “13F documents” in institutions with more than $100 million, that is, to disclose stock positions in the quarter within 45 days after the end of each quarter.As of Q2 2019, Gaochun Capital holds a total of 7.6 billion US dollars in US stocks, including companies in the technology Internet, medical, financial, consumer and other industries.Zhang Lei is best known for his investment in Tencent and JD. He has held positions for more than ten years and is a model for investing in value in the primary and secondary markets.However, when you actually operate a secondary market fund that invests in TMT, it is not wise to stick to one or two stocks.In the three years of Q2 in 2016, Q2-2019, Gao Hao almost bought the mainstream Internet companies in the US stock market. He has held 54 technology Internet companies, including Jingdong, Ali, Amazon, Baidu, Facebook, and Apple.Mainstream companies such as Google and other companies have recently bought new companies such as Pinto, Yu, and Weilai.We also observed that Gao Wei’s position on a single stock, on average, is about 2-3 quarters. Some companies even hold positions for only one quarter, and the positions are relatively fast; for important companies like Ali, Baidu and Iqiyi.Although the holding period is long, the transactions are relatively frequent.E-commerce: Selling Jingdong to buy Ali, “Broken Buy” and many people did not think that the e-commerce industry ushered in a great change in 2018, and before that, most people thought that this track was mature enough.Only four years of competition, the GMV ranked third, and the annual active users ranked second, and the sinking market was attacked by social grouping.Although the market cost is very high, but the growth rate is amazing, it is very difficult to predict the financial figures, which makes the company full of uncertainty.However, under the strong resistance of Alibaba, many of them have not been beaten very quickly. Both sides of Q2 have handed in a good financial report this year, which has greatly increased the confidence of the capital market.Ali also invested a lot of energy to develop a sinking market, and raised the cost-effectiveness to a very important strategic position, in order to fight more.It can be predicted that in the future, the e-commerce industry will be filled with Ali and a lot of smoke.The original giant Jingdong, in the absence of new growth points and the founder’s gossip gossip all the way to the bottom, 2018Q3 actually appeared the number of active users per year decline, the fight and more and Ali are triumphant.However, Jingdong is currently stabilizing, and strict cost control and entrepreneurship are working.Sorghum’s positions reflect these changes.As early as 2015Q4 to 2016Q4, Gaochun always concentrated more than 50% of its positions in Jingdong. According to Tianfeng Securities, the early sorghum’s position cost was around US$0.825/share, which was a good return.Gao Wei’s lightening of Jingdong’s position lasted for several years, and it was very planned. 2016Q2 Gaochun held Jingdong’s 2.6 billion US dollars stock, and the number of 2019Q2 dropped to 500 million US dollars.In the second half of 2018, when Jingdong was in crisis, Jingdong’s share price fell all the way, and the lowest PS (marketing rate) was already lower than Wal-Mart.Gao Hao chose to stop lightening, and kept the bottom of the warehouse so far, even in this year’s Q2 slightly jiacang.Although closely related to Jingdong, Gao Song did not give up buying Ali shares, although there are some “small cracks” on both sides.According to a brokerage research director, although Gaochun held many positions in Ali in 2018Q2, Ali’s Investor Day held in September 2018 still refused to participate.In the process of the fall of 2018Q2-Q3 Ali’s share price, Gaochun reduced the position a lot, but gradually increased the position in Q4 and 2019.In any case, Ali is undoubtedly a high-value stock with anti-risk in China.Based on Ali’s crawler strategy, ants Jinfu, Alibaba Cloud, rookie network, word of mouth and other brothers or fathers and sons ensured the ability to resist risks, coupled with sufficient liquidity, which is a favorite of investment institutions.And for a lot of fights, in many 2018, many funds have been uncertain, Gao Hao has already opened positions.In the fight for a lot of stock price trough 2019Q2, Gaochun can be described as “explosive buying”, according to the newly increased number of positions, Gaochun bought 1% of the total volume in Q2, which is a considerable figure.In the past month, the company has soared to 33.6 US dollars per share, and the market value has surpassed Baidu to become the fifth Internet in China.2019Q2 sorghum has a market value of 200 million US dollars for a lot of positions. Now this number may have doubled, and Gaochun’s prediction of a lot of success is successful.In addition, Gao Wei also bought Amazon in 2019Q2.Gao Hao did not continue to hold positions like value investors, but held it for a year in 2017, but then “closed to close”.In the second half of the fall of 2018, it was re-purchased and made a successful speculation.But if you keep it, you may be more profitable.In addition, Gaochun Capital has tried other e-commerce companies in other countries, such as the Argentine e-commerce company MercadoLibre covering the Latin American market, and the parent company Sea of ​​Southeast Asia e-commerce platform Shoppe, including Garena (digital games) and AirPay (electronics).For the wallet business, Shoppe is currently the largest e-commerce platform for GMV in Southeast Asia.With the weak macroeconomics in Latin America, buyers are more price sensitive, which is evident in the Argentine market (Argentina is the second largest market for MercadoLibre), and the price advantage drives consumers to shop online, compared to traditional retailers.This will also boost the growth of MercadoLibre GMV.And MercadoLibre increased its subsidies and marketing expenses for the Brazilian market in 2019, and is expected to achieve higher GMV growth.In addition, MercadoLibre has set up its own wallet business like Ali and JD. It has cross-selled services such as loans and insurance, and MercadoLibre is the leader in this field.Video: Ai Cang Ai Qiyi, layout Netflix in the US stock Internet stocks, iQiyi is the latest first big awkward stock in Gaochun, iQiyi is also a company that holds from the primary market to the secondary market, is loveThe third largest shareholder of Qiyi.After the listing of iQiyi in March 2018, the stock price skyrocketed to a maximum of $46. In the process, Gaochun chose to take profits, after all, the cost from the primary market is definitely low.By 2018Q4, when Iqiyi’s stock price bottomed out, Gaochun suddenly added a position and continued to buy.However, iQiyi’s recent performance is not very good. Although the stock price has not reached the bottom point of the 2018Q4 sorghum jiacang, it has continued to fall, and the new position is not estimated to make much money.Netflix, the originator of iQiyi and video streaming media, is a member of the main profit model, but they are still in a state of being unable to make ends meet. Because content investment is high and needs continuous investment, it is necessary to constantly buy copyright and produce new variety shows.In order to ensure that your platform has enough content.For example, a “Zhangyu Raiders” boosted the number of members in the quarter, but it can only last for several quarters, and it is necessary to continue to stimulate the episodes.In the first half of 2019, iQiyi invested only 5 billion in content, but its operating income was only 7.1 billion.Video streaming has always been a must for the giants. Ali supports Youku and Tencent to support their own Tencent video. Iqiyi is backed by Baidu, but this is the weakest “dad” in BAT.The business model of the three companies is very similar, price wars and traffic wars are inevitable, and user loyalty is not high.This has also led to the iQIY has been so short of money that it has recently issued bonds for financing.Compared to Netflix, iQiyi has tried more ways to monetize, including advertising (video tiles), content distribution, and even release games.According to the iQiyi 2019Q2 financial report, iQiyi faces a severe situation, with total revenue growth stagnating, advertising revenue falling year-on-year, and member services falling, which also caused stock prices to fall.This content war seems to still not see the end, Gao Song’s bet on Iqiyi does not know whether he can win?In addition to heavy warehouse iQiyi, Gaochun has also invested in Netflix.In Netflix, sorghum is not a long-term holder, but a band operation.Gao Wei held a $100 million Netflix position in the first half of 2018, but in the middle of 2018, the stock price peaked sharply, and then bought at the beginning of 2019.Netflix goes one step further than iQiyi, selling members to the world.However, Netflix’s performance in 2019Q2 is not good.Because Netflix Q2 tried to raise prices in the international market, which led to the loss of users, some investors began to question how much pricing power Netflix has and whether user demand has become saturated in the international market.Netflix shares have fallen 20% in the most recent month.If divided by age, iQiyi and Netflix are aimed at adult users, and they are a younger video platform. They started with anime “second yuan” and have now developed into entertainment, life, animation, games and technology.Diversified video platform.The youthful community of the hustle and bustle is very good, which makes it very sticky.Although MAU’s growth is somewhat weak, it still maintains an annual growth rate of around 30%.According to the management, 54% of new users are from low-end cities, which is in line with the recent downsizing of the Internet industry. It is very strong in certain vertical areas, such as e-sports and Vtuber live broadcasts.He is still preparing more than 30 games, including 10 self-developed games, most of which are ACG themes.2019Q2 Gaochun holds a position of 160 million US dollars. Like iQiyi, it is also the first high-end clearance profit after the IPO, and then gradually buy on the dips.OTA: Comprehensive Clearance Due to the global economic downturn, the ticket commission rate is under pressure and the hotel industry is entering a down cycle. In 2017, Gaochun cleared its former heavyweight stock – Ctrip.The time of the sorghum clearance Ctrip is very clever.In August 2017, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) issued a new regulation for the online travel ticketing platform (OTA) bundled sales, which requires OTA to sell tickets without defaulting the service products other than the ticket; it should be in a clear and prominent form.Additional services such as VIP lounges and insurance are set as passengers’ own choices; and the number and price of additional goods or services need to be brought to the attention of consumers in a significant way.Prior to this, because of the tying problem, Ctrip was once caught in a public opinion crisis.This new regulation puts Ctrip’s total revenue and net profit under pressure, and Gaochun also thoroughly cleared Ctrip in the quarter when the new regulations were released.Coupled with the decline in tourism spending will be under the influence of macroeconomics, Citigroup has not bought Ctrip shares.In addition to Ctrip, the OTA industry also bought Booking and TripAdvisor, and Booking is Europe’s largest online travel site, and Catwalk is the world’s largest travel review site.Before 2016, Gao Song also held MakeMyTrip (the largest OTA in India).Social: Arbitrage operations Facebook is the “evergreen tree” of US stocks. Social networking is also one of the most worthwhile areas of the Internet industry, because social software has a lot of traffic.Moreover, social has a significant leading effect, and once it gathers traffic, it will naturally form a monopoly position.The social giant’s way of realizing it is also very rich, from advertising, e-commerce, to data, it is easy to earn a lot of money.In this field, Gao Wei has held positions in Facebook, Line (Korea social software), Momo, Snapchat, Twitter, Weibo, and the gathering age (YY). Today, the most important position is Facebook.In the social field, Facebook has almost no rivals. Facebook users are second only to Google, and the two giants dominate the online advertising market.While Facebook has a large user base, Facebook has a high viscosity, and MAU is several times that of Twitter.In terms of revenue, although the Ad Load rate of Facebook traffic ads is approaching the limit, the monetization of Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and other products is still in its infancy, and it can still contribute long-term potential in the future.In the second half of 2018, Facebook fell into a user trust crisis, including user privacy leaks, false news interventions in the US elections, etc., causing user resentment and stricter regulation, which also caused Facebook’s stock price to “dark moments.”However, as Buffett said, “I am greedy when others are afraid.” Gao Wei slightly increased his position during the trough. When Q1 showed signs of recovery in 2019, he resolutely pressed the re-injection and successfully captured the inflection point. After that, Facebook stock priceYang along the way.When you are optimistic about a field, investing in a younger company in this field is a good choice.Like investing in iQiyi, Netflix, and buying a younger one, Gao Wei has also held a position in the social field.Compared to Facebook, Snapchat’s user base is younger, and most of them are young people aged 18-24.This is also the reason why Snapchat has a huge loss of financial statements, and still get 50 times of PS in the IPO, the market likes to occupy the application of young people’s mind.However, after the listing of Snapchat at a very high valuation, the user expansion speed is not satisfactory, and the absolute size and growth rate of the user scale is an important factor affecting the valuation of social companies.Before Facebook went public in 2012, the global DAU reached 552 million, still maintaining a growth rate of 32.4% year-on-year; while Snapchat broke through 158 million, the growth rate has dropped below 50%, and the increase is still small.The slowdown will have a greater impact on market expectations.After the listing, Snapchat broke all the way.In addition, Gao Wei has always maintained a position on LINE.Even LINE is the most popular social software in Japan and Taiwan, and has a certain user base in Southeast Asia.LINE, like WeChat, has a payment function. The two parties reached a cooperation at the end of last year, so that consumers can use WeChat to scan the LINE Pay QR code to call WeChat wallet to pay.In addition, like Facebook, LINE also launched the blockchain company “UNBOLCK” this year.In the middle stocks, Gao Song has always held Mo Mo and YY.In 2018, some VC investors thought that social is a cyclical product. As they grew up after 00, they might have opportunities for new social products, so they invested in a number of startups.One year later, the companies failed one after another. Facts have proved that the cost of acquiring new traffic by new startups is too high. It is better to buy Momo and YY stocks.Emerging areas: From Wei Lai to artificial meat Beyond Meat With the arrival of the unicorns around 2018, many eye-catching new stocks are worth trying.Every quarter, sorghum will continue to try new stocks. Although the positions are not heavy, once they find the right ones, they will take the opportunity to expand the results and even change the investment strategy.In 2019, Gao Yi tried a total of seven emerging stocks, of which Uber bought $700 million in Q2, accounting for 9.2% of Gaochun’s total market value.For the artificial meat company Beyond Meat, the sorghum is only a small purchase, but Beyond Meat is fierce, and the highest is more than 400 times higher than the first day of the listing.Others are transformed from the primary market, such as Weilai Automobile.In the past 30 years, investors in the US stock market have been able to share the dividends brought by the rapid growth of technology companies.Before 2013, the top ten listed companies with net profit in the US stock market, energy companies accounted for half of the country; after 2013, oil prices entered the downturn, replaced by technology companies and financial companies.During the period of 2015-2018, the business transformation driven by mobile Internet technology has brought a large number of outstanding technology companies to the forefront.According to Huatai Securities, if the Nasdaq index representing the new economy and the Dow Jones Industrial Index representing the traditional economy are compared, the Nasdaq turned 21 times from the end of 1990 to the end of June 2019, and the annualized rate of return was 11.4%.The Dow has only turned 10 times and the annualized rate of return is 8.5%.Despite the large retracement of the Nasdaq in the Internet bubble of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008, it also showed greater flexibility after the economic recovery.Therefore, in the ten-year bull market of US stocks in 2009-2018, technology stocks are one of the main driving forces.Doing enough good basic research, discovering and trying out emerging technology stocks in time is a magic weapon, especially when these companies are in short-term trouble.Tesla and Uber of Gaochun’s new warehouse are potential companies with low stock prices.Gao Wei also bought Apple and Google in 2018. These two are typical representatives of US technology stocks. Apple is the first big stock of Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.However, Gao Song quickly profited from Google’s clearance.In addition, among the stocks in China, Gaochun has a long holding period of 58 cities, and has maintained a 3%-8% position (in the Internet stocks). Until the second half of 2018, the advertising industry declined gradually.Reduced holdings.In BAT, Gao Song did not seriously hold Baidu in the last three years, only to do short-term arbitrage. Although Gao Hao missed Baidu’s 2017 big gain, but also escaped the 2018 second half of the fall.When he was internship at the Yale University Endowment Fund in his early years, Zhang Lei was sent to the timber industry for industry research. He came back a few weeks later and he handed over a 1-inch thick report. The insights made the chief investment officer David.Svensson looked at each other.This tradition has also continued in the sorghum, and analysts spent several years researching before the sorghum and Mayo clinics concluded a deal.An episode: Gao Lan’s English name, Hillhouse, comes from a path in Yale University. Zhang Lei’s internship Yale Endowment Fund is located on this road. It can be seen that Yale has a long-held company for the influence of Zhang Lei, such as the classic.Cases Tencent and JD. There are also one or two quarters of fast-forward and fast-moving stocks, such as Baidu; and even a complete clearance due to changes in the news, such as Ctrip.Zhang Lei once wrote in the preface to “The simplest thing in investment”: “The world’s martial arts, the total forest, the famous door, such as Shaolin Wudang, is truly famous in the world. And the martial arts, but whoever repairs the darts, can also be aloneTherefore, the martial art is not honorable, only suitable is not suitable.”————————————————If you are interested in Gaochun Capital/US stock TMT investment, or want to request 2016Q2-2019Q2 high-end position complete data Excel, please add the author WeChat (18500194899), and note the company and position,Welcome to exchange~.