The first vent of 5G, how far is the cloud game era from us?

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First, the cloud game fired the 5G era, what is the first killer application?Some people say that it is a cloud game.On March 20th, Google announced a high-profile launch of the cloud game platform stadia, dozens of masterpieces such as “赛博朋克2077” and confirmed the landing, and once pushed the cloud game to the cusp.Prior to this, Microsoft also launched the Xcloud program, which, like Google, will be strategically placed in the cloud gaming space.Back in history, the service provider onlive, who first sang the concept of the cloud game, got up early, but didn’t even support the evening set. After several twists and turns, it was eventually acquired by Sony.At that time, the concept of cloud games was too “advanced” and neither hardware nor software conditions were available.But now, the timing seems to be coming. The construction and commercial trials of 5G networks are in full swing around the world. The 5G network with more than 100 times the speed of 4G networks and ultra-low latency seems to boost the overall development and popularity of cloud games.From the World Mobile Communications Conference to the China International Digital Entertainment Industry Conference to the CJ stage, exhibitors have created cloud gaming zones and ambitiously announced their operational plans: hardware, NVIDIA launched a cloud-compatible terminalThe graphics card, let the high-end game cloud reality come to the ground, the company and Softbank cooperation, began to layout cloud game server.In the field of communications, Huawei Cloud announced the eight gold medal services around cloud games. Operators such as Telecom, China Unicom and China Mobile also launched 5G cloud game solutions.In the Internet field, Tencent, known as the “domestic first game empire”, demonstrated a number of cloud games on the CJ. At the same time, according to the “Three Voices” report, Tencent released three cloud game platforms in succession, at IEG.The interactive entertainment business group established the START Innovation Product Center, the sword refers to the cloud game.Interestingly, Tencent recently invested in the cloud game startup Dalongyun computer, which is very similar to their practice in the field of live broadcasting, doing penguin esports, fighting fish and tiger teeth, a two-pronged approach.Even Shunwang Technology, which has long-term business operations related to Internet cafes, has also launched the latest “cloud box” solution for cloud game upgrades for Internet cafe owners.Why, overnight, from BAT to Huawei, from telecom operators to mobile phone manufacturers, everyone started talking about cloud games?Here is a flag: For the upcoming 5G, cloud games are an important topic that all businesses cannot avoid.Ignoring cloud games, just like the Internet era, when I ignored “Legend” and the mobile Internet era, I ignored the “Three Kingdoms”.After all, 5G, it is likely to be “cloud networking” first.Second, not pseudo-demand for the past two years, from O2O to shared bicycles, from some artificial intelligence applications to blockchains, for many “innovative” products, a common problem is: only emphasize the originality of their own technology and modelEmphasizing the advanced “indicators” of their own technology, while ignoring the specific application scenarios and market environment, the result is that in order to purely tell the pseudo-demand of the story, there is a hammer that can’t find a good nail, and can’t solve it.Any problem in the real world.But the cloud game is not like this. He solves the problem of realism, and the pain point is too clear.Players who grew up with computer games know that if you want to enjoy the real masterpiece, the configuration of the machine must not be low, but the high-profile computer host and the next-generation game consoles are too expensive, like the aliens that match today.The price of tens of thousands of computers has become a “harvester” for ashes players.Even if you really buy such a top-loading luxury machine, portability is also a problem. You can’t carry a host to run around. It’s impossible to play anytime, anywhere.However, with the emergence of cloud game technology, all these problems will become history. All the performance and computing power are concentrated in the cloud. As long as you connect through 5G network, you can use any kind of screen login such as pc computer, mobile phone, tablet, etc. to call cloud high performance anytime and anywhere.The host, the use of the process without any delays … This is not a revolution for the game industry and players, the gold-plated money terminal will become history.Not to mention any new web technology applications, the first thing that fires up is games and pornography.Just completely eliminating the terminal threshold (price, portability), it is possible to completely reshape the face of the game industry, and people’s daily lives.Terminal cost has always been the core of restricting the popularization and popularization of high-quality games. According to nvidia statistics, there are currently about 1 billion computers in the world that are not enough to run large games. This is a huge market vacancy.But once the cloud game era comes, the terminal cost disappears completely. When the top game can be acquired at a low price anytime and anywhere like a shared bicycle, this will be a brand new era.According to the statistics of CITIC Construction Investment, the total market size of domestic game books, game consoles and Internet cafes has reached 77.243 billion yuan, and this part of consumption can be replaced by cloud games in the future. This is just a stock replacement.As a reference, according to statista data, the current global cloud game market is about $97 million, and by 2023 this number is expected to grow to $4.5 trillion.Why are such a huge cloud game, why is it not popular, and how long is it really popular?Investment or entrepreneurship, a key element is the “time.”So, is the timing of the cloud game really coming?Third, the cloud game’s pain point cloud game to get up, several core crux must be resolved: 1, bandwidth issues.For cloud games to run smoothly, stable network speeds, high-definition picture quality, and negligible delays are indispensable, but it is clear that 4G networks do not have this condition at all.According to the statistics of online game mobile games in the 4G period, the user’s delay tolerance line for live broadcast is between 200 milliseconds and 2 seconds, but the delay tolerance line for the game is less than 50 milliseconds, which is difficult to stabilize even for wifi.Imagine that you are fighting chickens and guns, can you afford a delay at a critical moment?2. Flow rate.In 4G mode, the traffic of playing cloud games every hour is about 1G, which is equivalent to HD video. Such consumption of ordinary players can’t imagine.So, is 5G+ edge calculation (shared computing power) a good solution?3. Technical threshold.Cloud games rely not only on the high speed of the network, but also on the high performance of cloud computing.The CDN technology often used in network video is useless here, because cloud games are not like live broadcasts, just use streaming technology to guarantee the video playback experience. His core is “interaction”, which requires a lot of virtualization technology.(Desktop virtualization, application virtualization), the large-scale use of this technology on the Internet will be a new challenge.Once the user surges, how to do the load balancing of cloud computing is particularly important, otherwise the cloud game system will not stand the toss of many people.4. Game copyright.In response to Google’s cloud game strategy, Microsoft, Sony and other big companies have begun to build copyright barriers. If the headpieces are exclusively occupied, then even if the cloud game is revolutionary, it will suffer from lack of content and the lack of content.5. Platform constraints.Apple has a natural hostility to the rising cloud game, thinking that this may affect the revenue of its own application store, various restrictions and downfalls come at any time, before the local game streaming application like SteamLink was violated by AppleRemoved from the shelf.It must be pointed out that although the promotion of 5G is inspiring, 5G itself is not a panacea.Specific to cloud games, 5G only solves the problem of bandwidth and delay from the terminal to the base station, but it cannot solve the bandwidth problem of the backbone network.So the question is, is it to continue to expand the bandwidth of the backbone network, or to enhance the deployment of edge nodes and vigorously promote edge computing?This issue is very similar to the problem when video sites became popular in the past.Bandwidth, tariffs, cloud computing technology, game copyright, four big mountains in front, ideally full of cloud games can not be done overnight, the popularity of 5G is only a fuse, the real deflagration needs the chemical reaction of the whole system, is the cloud sideThe comprehensive maturity and technology upgrade of each equipment in the entire industrial chain.Of course, the problem never stops the strategic hunger for historical opportunities.The game of cloud games is quietly rising. Whether it is a big factory or a small and medium-sized entrepreneur, they have already focused on this cake.As the game of the battlefield, the first war of the 5G cloud networking era is about to break out.Fourth, the Shura field that is slowly unfolding analyzes the current cloud game battle situation, which can be viewed from three dimensions: 1. From the game category, there are host game parties and mobile games.The former is to move the high-performance pc and next-generation console games to the cloud, which is also the current mainstream direction. Google, Microsoft, Sony and domestic manufacturers are aiming at this direction.The latter is to cloud the mobile game, no need to download, representing the king of the sea and the red finger.We focus on the console game here.2, from the use of the platform, there are pan-computer screens and TV screens.The former is more common, that is, on a mobile phone, a tablet computer, a notebook, or even a low-profile computer, the game running with a high computer is performed.The latter is the TV cloud mode. The representative is Bobo, which mainly provides cloud game services to TV users based on iptv and digital TV through 2b cooperation.The advantage is the user base. A large number of users can be obtained through radio and TV and operator iptv. Of course, are these users the core users of cloud games?Worth doubting.3. From the perspective of the main body type, there are big factory innovation parties and startup companies.In addition to the big guys abroad, domestic large companies such as Huawei Tencent also have to target cloud games, set up an innovation department, and set up a sharp knife team.In contrast, some startups have been exploring cloud games since the 4G era. They ran faster and played more determined, representing such as Dalongyun Computer, Gelaiyun Games, and Bobo.4, from the product business and business model, it is divided into several factions: a, member selection mode.The representative is Ge Laiyun, which mainly imitates the onlive mode and sells the cloud game service and specific services to the user package.The advantage is that the user can directly select the game to play, which is more flexible and human.b. Cloud computer rental mode on time.Representatives such as Huawei Cloud Computer and Dalong Cloud Computer mainly provide cloud-based PCs, which provide “cloud computers” that can be rented on time and can be run on terminals such as mobile phones. The core here lies in technology accumulation.Huawei Cloud Computer mainly serves Huawei mobile phone terminals. It is an exclusive service and function for Huawei mobile phone users. Recently, it has further cooperated with touch technology to enter the cloud mobile game market.However, Huawei recently released its Hongmeng OS with great fanfare. Whether Huawei Cloud Computer supporting Windows in Huawei mobile phones is necessary, it will be very doubtful.For these modes, you can simply compare: 1. From the perspective of user scale, Dalong’s game cloud computer has generated millions of paid member users.The cloud games of other startups are relatively early, and the number of users has not yet formed a scale.Depending on the iptv and digital TV system, Boyun can theoretically obtain a large number of TV viewers.2. From the perspective of technology accumulation, Huawei Cloud mainly focuses on cloud infrastructure, and has accumulated technology for pc, mobile games, and vr.Dalongyun Computer has developed subdivided technologies such as cloud desktop, game streaming, and mobile virtual keyboard operation, which makes the “playing computer on mobile phone” smooth and natural.3. From the perspective of content copyright, Tencent Empire has the most abundant copyright accumulation as a well-deserved game king.In general, cloud game startups have copyright risks almost without exception. Although there is no thunder in the short term, they may have to stand on the thighs in the long run, otherwise they will not be able to solve the problem of copyright vacancies.Then the question comes, which genre will eventually win in this war, and once the cloud game war breaks out, where is the final victory?V. Taking history as a guide, the inspiration of game live broadcast refers to cloud games. A common reference is “game live broadcast”, which is the derivative track of the game industry accompanied by technological evolution. What kind of similarity and difference will the development of the two be similar?Once upon a time, the live fire became a vent, and the most popular of them was the live broadcast of the show and the live broadcast of the game. Here, the red beauty of the net, the battle of the chicken over there, the time of the battle, the competition.Later things were cruel, high bandwidth costs, squandering fraud, unclear profit model, strict policy supervision, and the live fire was quickly extinguished.The only thing that really came out was the live game.In May 2018, Huya was listed in the United States. In July 2019, the fighting fish Nasdaq ringed the clock, and the fast-handed player also borrowed live broadcast to obtain a generous cash flow.However, the price of live broadcast is not easy. The prospectus shows that the total loss of fighting fish in 2016-2018 was 2.272 billion yuan. It was not until the first quarter of 2019 that the initial loss was 18.2 million yuan.Prior to this, Huya had a net loss of 1.5 billion yuan before its listing in 18 years.The main source of revenue for the game live platform is based on virtual gift-based fans, followed by commercial promotion.Rewarding as a business model is understandable, but there are several problems: 1. The personal “charm” of the anchor and the high dependence on the content production capacity lead to the development of the live broadcast platform, and the anchor is more and more to the head platform.Concentration, and then traffic is beginning to concentrate.2. It is not the rigid expenditure of the audience. The audience can watch the “white 嫖” for free. The payment behavior has high requirements on the operation ability of the anchor company and presents certain instability.3, easy to cheat fraud, brush data rampage.In contrast, the essence of cloud games is a “time-sharing” economy. Each user rents a high-end host in the cloud and pays on time to use it. This kind of payment behavior is far more rigid than live broadcast, and it is impossible.”White 嫖”, there is no way to cheat, if supplemented by the membership model, the income is more stable and healthy.From this perspective, the profitability of cloud games far exceeds the live broadcast of games, which is another dimension.However, cloud games also face the same problems as live games, which are high server, bandwidth and traffic costs.Be aware that the cost of traffic is not only borne by users, but also by service providers.Then the question comes. If a large number of users surge in the short-term, how many enterprises can afford the cost of this day?Even a big company like Tencent can’t ignore the cost and sway it.From this perspective, there is still a huge suspense in the development of cloud games: the 5G traffic tariff will definitely drop, the problem is when to drop.This is the timing issue. How far is the cloud game from us? It depends on how fast the operator’s speed increase and fee reduction.Author Zhang Jun, the founder of Shanghai Shuai, the public debate (ID: bianlunlove), personal WeChat 13385698365..