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Behind the retreat of ZTE mobile phones, who opened the era of mobile warfare?

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Image from Oriental IC Editor’s Note: This article comes from the WeChat public account “Five Moment Research Society” (ID: kejiwuju), the author of the house stone, Tencent Technology first unauthorized reprint. Backed by the communication tree, ZTE, “nothing is wrong everywhere”, why did it go to the point where “Other” exists in today’s report? When the 5G track is opened, can ZTE’s No. 1 domestic mobile phone still recover? On July 10, 2019, ZTE Blade V10 Vita was listed in various markets such as Europe and Latin America. According to public information, ZTE V10 It will be equipped with a purple SOC solution (SC9863A). This is ZTE’s new attempt in the mobile phone market to break through Qualcomm SOC and make a low-end mobile phone market. “I am strong, because I specialize” “Zhongxing, communication Experts, trustworthy” This is in 2004, ZTE mobile phone once asked the most popular traffic star at that time, the advertising slogan made on CCTV. The picture comes from the former synonym of domestic mobile phone, ZTE’s past, far more than the waveguide And Huawei is more brilliant. According to public information: ZTE’s mobile phone division was established in 1998, and the division launched the first ZTE mobile phone A189 in 1999, as a span of 20 years, experienced 2G, 3G and The old brand of the 4G era, ZTE has eaten the dividends of PHS, played the market of functional machines, and stood in the Android camp of Qualcomm and Google before and after 2009. 2012 In the face of the rise of Xiaomi’s Internet model, ZTE has also supported its own Internet brand Nubian. However, this domestically-owned mobile phone brand, which has been favored and has never had any “direction mistakes”, gradually evolved after 2016. According to the “2018 Global Smartphone Summary Report” released by IDC, ZTE Mobile, as the former big brother of “China Cool Alliance”, has only 10.5 million global shipments in 2018, and its market share is only The remaining 0.75% is in stark contrast to Huawei’s 200 million shipments. However, ZTE, which is backed by the communication tree, is “nothing wrong”, why did it go to the point where “Other” is only reported in today’s report? When the 5G track is opened, ZTE’s No. 1 veteran of the domestic mobile phone can still recover? In the era of 2G and 3G, the brilliant era of ZTE’s brilliant ZTE mobile phone originated from the CDMA period of PHS. 1998 was the starting point for the rise of domestic mobile phones. At that time, there were two main reasons for this starting point: First, in 1998, the state introduced relevant policies and began issuing official licenses for mobile phone production; second, based on the needs of the domestic market, such as Enterprises such as Jian, Bird, Panda, Amoi, Dibit, and South High-Tech have launched the “branding machine” business after obtaining the license. The so-called “branding machine” is to use the mobile phone produced by others to affix its own logo to sell as a domestic brand. For example, the waveguide that was known as the “fighter in the mobile phone” was from Sagem, France. Equipment manufactured by mobile phone manufacturers. The picture of the waveguide mobile phone comes from Feiyang Technology Life. In 2003, the brand also relied on CCTV’s advertising tactics, with a shipment of 10 million units a year, becoming the first “first place” in the domestic “license restriction period”. Domestic mobile phone brands, even its popularity in the country is greater than the world’s overlord Nokia and Motorola. However, the “domestic” moisture that is branded with other people’s products is more than just a brand that is designed only by using the mobile phone industry chain today. At least, on December 12, 2013, at the scene of CCTV’s “2013 China Economic Person of the Year”, Xiaomi founder Lei Jun and Dong Mingzhu could also say “Millet is created in China, Gree is made in China”. From 1998 to 2004, because of licensing restrictions and the lack of brands, even in the case of OEMs, in a market where demand is greater than supply, these devices can be sold hot. However, in 2004, with the end of the country’s “approval system” for mobile phones and the “approval system” era. Samsung, LG and other foreign brands entered the market directly, letting the short-lived waveguide of 2003 go straight into the downslope of “falling down”.事实上,和波导、熊猫、夏新、迪比特等一众品牌相比,早年的中兴是国产手机品牌里的一股清流。因为在那个可以赚快钱的年代里,中兴是当时少有进行自主研发的手机制造商。而这种自主研发的技术积累,也让中兴手机少有的成为了从小灵通时代一直杀到4G时期的国产手机品牌。据中兴的老员工提及:在2000年电信寒冬时期,因为小灵通手机的火爆,中兴就是依靠着手机业务熬过的寒冬,甚至还借此挽回了错估CDMA的战略性失误。当时国内同在通信设备领域的有五家企业,包括巨龙、大唐、中兴、华为和普天,华为凭技术立身、中兴靠手机活命,而另外三家则因企业体制及技术方向的失误,而沦为二流之列。与此相对应的数据是:2003年,中兴的手机业务销售额凭借与电信运营的绑定优势,达到48.2亿元。在其他媒体上传闻:中兴的整个小灵通业务(服务和手机)规模达到了120亿元,连续3年都占到了中兴总收入的50%。小灵通手机 图片来自搜狐2004年,中兴以营业收入212亿的财务数据,在香港成功上市。于是,凭借手机市场有了资金保障的中兴,在CDMA技术上进行了大力押注。据一名已经离职的中兴老员工回忆:以前两家互黑,中兴人把华为叫做“F7”公司或“28公司”,华为人把中兴叫做“26公司”。为啥要叫“26”?因为Z是第26个字母,另外,26和“二流”谐音。那个时候尽管华为依然领先中兴,但两者的差别并不像现在这么大。尤其是“小灵通”和“CDMA”时代,中兴一度依靠这两个技术和市场发展,实现了“弯道超车”,缩小了和华为的差距。而意识到手机市场重要性的华为,直到2004年才凭借着ODM代工的方式,进入到了手机市场。但2012年以前,手机市场的较量上,华为和中兴一直属于半斤八两的水平,甚至中兴的手机底蕴在2009年以前,还高于华为。4G的转折,中兴做错了吗?十四年前的2005年,是国产手机市场由盛及衰的第一个转折点,当时诸如波导一类的贴牌机手机厂家销量大幅下滑,而拥有上游CDMA技术的中兴,则从2005年的1200万跨越到2006年的1600万、再到2007年的3106万,销量跃居全球第六名,实现了3年“三级跳”。而中兴手机的这种增长一直持续到2013年,据中新经纬在当时的文章介绍:2013年时,中兴、华为、酷派和联想这四家企业因为在国内手机市场份额高达75%,被媒体称为“中华联酷”。但“中华酷联”作为3G时代的最后辉煌,随着4G时代的开启,仅在2014年就快速进入了洗牌阶段。当时,伴随着“中兴、酷派和联想”的衰落,小米、OPPO和vivo却在快速崛起。而华为手机却凭借狼性逆袭,硬生生的在手机转型路途上“绝地求生”,杀出了一条随时破灭的血路。图片来自解放日报事实上,面对趋势变动,中兴也并非坐以待毙,而是在2012年推出了自己的互联网手机品牌——努比亚,作为与小米、Ov等新兴力量的博弈重器。但中兴作为一家上市公司,努比亚的出场并未给中兴带来新的曙光,反而在连年亏损中,因为“拖累财务报表”而在2017年7月,被中兴进行变相售卖。与此有关的数据是:财报方面,努比亚2016年营收53.78亿元,净利润亏损9142万元,2017年仅第一季度,努比亚亏损达7123万元;销量数据方面,2015年、2016年、2017年努比亚的预计出货量都在1000万部左右,三年来没有任何增长。努比亚在柔性屏上的尝试和创新 图片来自爱范儿所以,中兴的努比亚、联想的摩托罗拉以及酷派卖身到反水360背后,3G时代的四大天王除了华为从技术破局外,另外三家的推陈出新、品牌并购以及合纵连横战略均以失败告终。2019年的当下,面对中兴在手机市场的溃败,外界声音主要集中在三个浅层次的表面原因上进行过讨论:其一是说中兴手机的质量和品牌问题。据IDC分析师金迪介绍:为了满足运营商,中兴推出过大量低端手机,这些手机往往被用作诸如“充话费送手机”“安网线送手机”等等方式进行“廉价”销售。这类被运营商赠送出去的手机,因为制造成本限制,质量问题严重。《中兴通讯》一书中写道:中兴手机返修率一度高达10%。其二是说中兴手机的渠道问题。比如据公开数据显示:2016年以前,中兴90%的出货量来自运营商,公开市场渠道占比10%,2016年中兴希望摆脱对运营商依赖,树立公开渠道达到40%的目标,但2016年中兴并未完成这一目标(一直面向B端市场,导致转型困难)。其三是说中兴手机的内部管理问题。诸如在2016年,中兴手机尚有余机的时期,手机事业部曾在一年内频频换帅两次,并让中兴通讯执行董事殷一民重掌大盘。而目前,殷一民正是中兴通讯的董事长,铁铁的一把手。所以,2016年让殷一民直接接手手机业务,足见中兴对手机市场的看重,但可惜,中兴手机的病根不在人事和管理,也不在渠道、质量和品牌,而是在对技术的初心。其实,中兴在媒体讨论中所拥有的“表面错误”,并非中兴手机一家的“专利”。首先手机质量问题上,早年的小米也同样面临相同的质量困境,比如根据黑猫投诉平台显示,小米多项产品都有过质量问题的投诉案例。除了国内媒体的多次报道外,小米在国外统计机构Blancco的全球手机故障率排行中一直稳居前三。其次,在渠道和人事变动方面,华为的渠道破局并没有比中兴轻松多少,而小米、Ov的人事变动也并不比中兴少到哪去。归其根本,作为同在通信和手机市场的“中华酷联”老人,华为手机的成功原因或许更值得中兴手机进行反思。因为,今天的中兴困境背后,在十四年前的2005年,中兴也曾拥有过“度过困境”的制胜法宝。错误的本质2019年的中兴,根据公开资料显示:目前除却通信和与通信有关的核心产品外,已经通过一些大型子公司渗入房地产和新能源领域,比如中兴发展专注房地产和酒店投资建设,旗下品牌包括中兴和泰酒店,而中兴新能源汽车虽然公司犹在,但其在新能源汽车市场的存在感并不突出。和中兴的四处投资不同,华为手机的崛起历程要比中兴聚焦和精简许多,至少今天的华为依然在以通信和手机为核心进行着边界的扩展,诞生了诸如鸿蒙、麒麟、鲲鹏和超级蓝牙等已经或即将商业化的技术,而没有涉足战略主航道以外的市场。华为芯片产品中兴手机的沦落,则是上述现实的映射。当钻研技术的本心不在,当公司决策以利益为先,任何蛛丝马迹的失误也都成了未来压死骆驼的“最后一根稻草”。以至于我们能在这样或那样的故事版本中,找到太多理由。2005年,中兴作为国内自研手机厂家的代表,曾依托在CDMA的投入拿下了从3G到4G初期的市场红利。这个中兴手机的最辉煌时期,几乎和中兴在CDMA网络技术上的辉煌时间出奇的一致。2013年以后,随着4G上位,CDMA成为了与中兴手机一起的“老历史”,而新技术的研发上华为却实现了对4G和5G的破局。At the same time, Huawei mobile phones began to rise with self-developed chips, and ZTE, under the circumstance of Qualcomm, gradually became the “new era OEM” such as Kejian, Bird, Panda and Amoi. Compared with the well-known relationship between Xiaomi and Qualcomm, ZTE’s mobile phone and Qualcomm are far more binding than Xiaomi. In the CDMA era, ZTE has worked closely with Qualcomm in various fields with its first-mover advantage in CDMA technology, and has almost contracted all telecom contract machines in the domestic mobile phone market. The picture comes from China Telecom. After 2008, with Qualcomm launching a mature mobile phone SOC chip solution, ZTE also followed Qualcomm to stand on Google’s Android camp and started a smooth business. Until this model of business was broken by new rules such as Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo. Unlike ZTE’s “Friends Help” in the mobile phone market, Huawei’s mobile phone advancement is a long history of suffering. In the early years, in the chip cooperation of USB data card, unilaterally Qualcomm had no reason to cut off the supply, and then on the road of mobile phone self-research, Samsung and all the gods and gods friends stuck the neck of the core components. Therefore, Huawei learned from the loss of the communication market, published in the “2012 Lab” speech: “Once the company has a strategic loophole, we are not a loss of tens of billions of dollars, but hundreds of billions of dollars. Loss. These wealth may be because of that point, let others get stuck, and finally die.” When I decided to make the mobile phone business bigger and stronger, I also became a mobile phone self-developed road with the history of wearing small shoes. Into a part of the soul. The gap and ending of this comparison, in July 2017, ZTE mobile phone has already revealed the Nubian brand. Because the annual loss of tens of millions, affecting the financial statements of the listing, and the removal of Nubia. It is self-evident to think about Huawei’s multi-billion-dollar R&D expenditure on Haisi and the “zeroing” risk behind R&D, and the alignment of financial statements with the outlook for the future. But these “wrong decisions” are not ZTE’s own faults, because the pursuit of profitability is the fundamental of the existence of enterprises. After all, there are not a few companies in the world that do better than ZTE, and companies that can compete with Huawei are the best in China. Only when this “no error” encounters “a more strategic pattern is wrong”, the success of Huawei has concealed the fact that ZTE is still the world’s fourth largest communications equipment manufacturer. At least, today’s ZTE has lost in the mobile phone market, but its technical heritage is still several times that of Xiaomi, Ov and other brands. In this era similar to the “China Cool Alliance” in 2013, the nature and rules of human beings are not changed. 5G, the closing ceremony of the mobile phone era On December 4, 2013, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued 4G licenses to the three major telecom operators. China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom all obtained TD-LTE licenses. With the issuance of 4G licenses, the mobile phone market has ushered in a wave of exchanges. In the baptism of this change of tide, the sound of “China Cool Alliance” has entered the new Huami Ov with the disappearance of the cottage brand. era. The world’s mobile phone landscape, under the influence of several core technology companies such as Qualcomm, Google, Samsung and Apple, entered the “new era of invisible monopoly” in advance. During the 3G period, Meizu still had the spare capacity to buy itself by purchasing chips from MediaTek and Samsung. At that time, the mobile phone, as well as the full Netcom and the two Netcom points, but with the acceleration of the 4G track, Meizu’s compromise to Qualcomm, I do not know when the three Netcom has become the default “standard.” The picture comes from the love fan market is progressing, the products are changing, the mobile phone brand is also under the influence of the Internet trend of thought, but with the hustle and bustle, the only remaining one is the paper ticket from China and Europe to Qualcomm, and the European counter against Google. Monopoly investigation. In April 2019, according to the latest shipment statistics report released by the market research organization Canalys, the Chinese smartphone market showed that the total market share of Huawei, OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi has now accounted for 82.1% of the market.这里的一幕像极了2013年时“中华酷联(75%)”的老时代,只是和那时不同的是:全球手机市场的出货超过2亿部手机的第一梯队只有苹果、三星和华为三家,而三家的共同点都是在系统、屏幕亦或摄像领域有着自己的专长,并能通过自研芯片让专长“技”有所依。也许消费者未曾感知到手机市场的变动,但小米面对产业链的大一统趋势时,应是用此刻的“小米CC9预约不到10万”的痛苦,绘声绘色的描述了“新垄断环境下创新者的绝望”。以至于,从今年5G尚未普及之初,小米和Ov就纷纷“不合时宜”的推出了5G手机,来“表演了一出”我们还有技术底蕴的好戏。只是正如2018年,荣耀总裁赵明所说:“到了今天,手机已经不是一个单纯的通讯工具,它承载很多东西。这些不是小公司能做的,是科技与技术发展的结果,需要很多的支撑,包括审美、全球设计能力、供应链的驱动等等。”所以,手机厂家要想活下来,怕是要比之前付出更多努力。因为对技术的投入越晚,随着技术成熟度的提升,其壁垒和门槛越高。大概高通和三星等企业,随着时间推移而在全球供应链市场某一领域的“一家独大”,就是这个故事的最好写实。中兴的潜伏与5G的机遇2019年是5G元年,对于我们的主角中兴来说,5G里面的机遇远远多于危机。虽然中兴目前在手机市场不顺,但随着5G开启,中兴在手机市场的机会依然比小米、Ov三家更多。这种机遇,是由企业的技术底蕴和企业的体量规模来决定的。比如,对于中兴而言,手机市场失利后依然有5G基站的订单可以维持营生,而目前除却基站和手机市场外,根据中兴官网显示,中兴还有涉足的市场包括:云计算、固网、多媒体、云基础设施、能源等多个领域。中兴作为全球第四大通信设备公司,目前涉足的这些核心业务基本都与5G和手机相关。简单来说,任何市场的失利都只是打碎了一个鸡蛋,而基于其他鸡蛋犹在的事实,只要时机合适,中兴随时都有在手机市场重新来过的本钱和入场券。而基于品牌内部资源调配可以进行联动的事实,当中兴将技术融合,5G手机市场的起点与高度,也将优于“小米、OPPO和vivo”三家。事实上,回顾中兴手机的发展历程,我们很难说中兴做错过什么。因为中兴手机近20年的关键决策,几乎都是符合时代潮流大方向的决定。大概,中兴唯二错误估算的事情:一是手机硬件行业走向垄断和标准化的速度,二是消费者对差异化需求的购买力。而对这两个估算错误的手机品牌,不止中兴,还有今天陷入创新困境的小米、OPPO和vivo,以及曾经倒在时代潮流中的王者诺基亚和摩托罗拉。5G会是一场不亚于4G的洗牌和标准化运动,但在这个产业链上游的中兴,有更多的机会去在趋势明朗后找到新的机遇,而处在时代漩涡中心的其他品牌,或许更应值得在手机市场的患得患失中多上几分焦虑。正如中兴“老人”在自己的文章中对中兴的寄托:中兴作为一家老牌通信设备商,有过辉煌的过去,也有充满压力和挑战的未来。殷总回归之后,中兴上下都对他寄予厚望。虽然这些年中兴遇到了很多问题,但终归还没有出局。There is hope in living, isn’t it? At present, the Internet of Things is so hot, 5G is coming, what will happen in the future, who dares to assert? This article mainly refers to: 1. What kind of company is ZTE: https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/291293272, ZTE Wikipedia: https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4% B8%AD%E5%85%B4%E9%80%9A%E8%AE%AF3, a history of Huawei mobile phones experienced by former Huawei: how the most cattle products are made: https://www.shobserver .com/news/detail?id=80450Welcome to add WeChat (micro-signal: sikuaiwanshi), the editor of the Five Moments Research Society, to communicate. Add a WeChat and take the initiative to remark. .

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